[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/59419.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The financial meltdown: a model with endogenous default probability

Author

Listed:
  • Ferrari, Massimo
Abstract
Starting from some of the most recent literature developed after the world financial crisis, it has been developed a model with heterogeneous agents and an active interbank market, characterized by an endogenous default probability. The key feature of the analysis is that the probability of default evolves endogenously and is taken into account by banks in their investment decisions. In each period banks, that are heterogeneous, decide to invest only a part, or even none, of their surplus funds on loans to other financial institutions, if the probability of default is high enough, preferring to use that funds to purchase riskless assets. This decision effects the total supply of credit to firms and, through it, the total level of investments, output and employment. Abstract When a financial crisis occurs, banks reduce their supply of interbank funds replicating, to some extent, the behaviour of the interbank market during the last crisis. Through the definition of an endogenous default probability and the analysis of how it effects the credit supply, it is possible to understand the connections between the behaviour of financial markets and the real economy. The model, at last, is calibrated in order to test the response of the system to exogenous shocks and to conventional and unconventional economic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrari, Massimo, 2014. "The financial meltdown: a model with endogenous default probability," MPRA Paper 59419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59419
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/59419/1/MPRA_paper_59419.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/61823/1/MPRA_paper_61823.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/67015/1/MPRA_paper_67015.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/68139/1/MPRA_paper_68139.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roland Meeks & Benjamin Nelson & Piergiorgio Alessandri, 2017. "Shadow Banks and Macroeconomic Instability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1483-1516, October.
    2. Christopher Phelan & Robert M. Townsend, 1991. "Computing Multi-Period, Information-Constrained Optima," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(5), pages 853-881.
    3. Heider, F. & Hoerova, M. & Holthausen, C., 2009. "Liquidity Hoarding and Interbank Market Spreads : The Role of Counterparty Risk," Discussion Paper 2009-40 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. De Graeve, Ferre & Dossche, Maarten & Emiris, Marina & Sneessens, Henri & Wouters, Raf, 2010. "Risk premiums and macroeconomic dynamics in a heterogeneous agent model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1680-1699, September.
    5. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    6. Shujaat Khan & Edward S. Knotek, 2011. "How do households respond to uncertainty shocks?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 96(Q II).
    7. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    8. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    9. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
    10. Matthew Elliott & Benjamin Golub & Matthew O. Jackson, 2014. "Financial Networks and Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3115-3153, October.
    11. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester, 2009. "A tale of two policies: prudential regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks," Kiel Working Papers 1569, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    13. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    14. Ignazio Angeloni, 2009. "A Tale of Two Policies- Prudential Regulation and Monetary Policy with Fragile Banks," Working Papers 345, Bruegel.
    15. Vasia Panousi & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2012. "Investment, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 1113-1148, June.
    16. Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Conventional and unconventional monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(May), pages 229-264.
    17. Hong, Yongmiao & Liu, Yanhui & Wang, Shouyang, 2009. "Granger causality in risk and detection of extreme risk spillover between financial markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 271-287, June.
    18. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    19. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    20. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    21. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 3-35, September.
    22. Ben S. Bernanke, 2015. "The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9928-2.
    23. Robert Pollin, 2012. "The great US liquidity trap of 2009–2011: are we stuck pushing on strings?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(0), pages 55-76.
    24. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704, April.
    25. Motta, Giorgio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2015. "Money Targeting, Heterogeneous Agents, And Dynamic Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 288-310, March.
    26. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2006. "Business fluctuations in a credit-network economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 68-74.
    27. Vasco Curdia, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy under sudden stops," Staff Reports 323, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    28. Stijn Claessens, 2010. "The Financial Crisis," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 177-196, May.
    29. Mr. Stijn Claessens & Mr. Luc Laeven & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2010. "Lessons and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2010/044, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    31. Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2003. "Collateral constraints and the amplification mechanism," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 277-292, August.
    32. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2001. "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 287-327, April.
    33. Turner, Adair, 2012. "Economics After the Crisis," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026201744x, April.
    34. Robert Pollin, 2012. "The Great U.S. Liquidity Trap of 2009-11: Are We Stuck Pushing on Strings?," Working Papers wp284, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    35. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    36. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "The Federal Reserve’s response to the financial crisis: what it did and what it should have done," Working Papers 2012-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    37. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    38. J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    39. James, Christopher, 1991. "The Losses Realized in Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1223-1242, September.
    40. Cowell, Frank A., 2006. "Microeconomics: Principles and Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199267774.
    41. Guillermo Ordoñez, 2013. "The Asymmetric Effects of Financial Frictions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 844-895.
    42. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    43. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    44. Franklin Allen & Ana Babus & Elena Carletti, 2009. "Financial Crises: Theory and Evidence," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 97-116, November.
    45. Turner, Adair, 2012. "Economics After the Crisis: Objectives and Means," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026252516x, April.
    46. Riccarda Longaretti & Domenico Delli Gatti, 2006. "The Non-Superneutrality of Money and its Distributional Effects when Agents are Heterogeneous and Capital Markets are Imperfect," Working Papers 95, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2006.
    47. Hammersland, Roger & Træe, Cathrine Bolstad, 2014. "The financial accelerator and the real economy: A small macroeconometric model for Norway with financial frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 517-537.
    48. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    49. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
    50. Douglas M. Gale & Shachar Kariv, 2007. "Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 99-103, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Massimo Minesso Ferrari, 2020. "The Real Effects of Endogenous Defaults on the Interbank Market," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 6(3), pages 411-439, November.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Michał Brzoza‐Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2013. "Bayesian Evaluation of DSGE Models with Financial Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1451-1476, December.
    4. Ai, Hengjie & Li, Kai & Yang, Fang, 2020. "Financial intermediation and capital reallocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 663-686.
    5. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio, 2014. "Uncertainty in a model with credit frictions," Bank of England working papers 496, Bank of England.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo, 2020. "Bank contagion in general equilibrium," Working Paper Series 2432, European Central Bank.
    8. Gerke, R. & Jonsson, M. & Kliem, M. & Kolasa, M. & Lafourcade, P. & Locarno, A. & Makarski, K. & McAdam, P., 2013. "Assessing macro-financial linkages: A model comparison exercise," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 253-264.
    9. Atkeson, Andrew G. & Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2017. "Measuring the financial soundness of U.S. firms, 1926–2012," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 613-635.
    10. Beck, Thorsten & Colciago, Andrea & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2014. "The role of financial intermediaries in monetary policy transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-11.
    11. Radde, Sören, 2015. "Flight to liquidity and the Great Recession," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 192-207.
    12. Kuncl, Martin, 2019. "Securitization under asymmetric information over the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 237-256.
    13. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    14. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Queralto, Albert, 2012. "Financial crises, bank risk exposure and government financial policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 17-34.
    15. Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2017. "Bank Leverage Cycles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 32-72, April.
    16. Hans Gersbach & Jean-Charles Rochet & Martin Scheffel, 2023. "Financial Intermediation, Capital Accumulation, and Crisis Recovery," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1423-1469.
    17. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    18. Gertler, M. & Kiyotaki, N. & Prestipino, A., 2016. "Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1345-1425, Elsevier.
    19. Jochen Mankart & Alexander Michaelides & Spyros Pagratis, 2020. "Bank capital buffers in a dynamic model," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(2), pages 473-502, June.
    20. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomics; macrofinance; endogenous default; crisis; default; policies; DSGE; heterogeneous agents;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59419. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.