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Loss Aversion in Sequential Auctions: Endogenous Interdependence, Informational Externalities and the "Afternoon Effect"

Author

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  • Rosato, Antonio
Abstract
Empirical evidence from sequential auctions shows that prices of identical goods tend to decline between rounds. In this paper, I show how expectations-based reference-dependent preferences and loss aversion can rationalize this phenomenon. I analyze two-round sealed-bid auctions with symmetric bidders having independent private values and unit demand. Equilibrium bids in the second round are history-dependent and subject to a "discouragement effect": the higher the winning bid in the first auction is, the less aggressive the behavior of the remaining bidders in the second auction. When choosing his strategy in the first round, however, a bidder conditions his bid on being pivotal and hence expects not to be discouraged. Equilibrium behavior, therefore, leads the winner of the first round to overestimate the bid of his highest opponent and hence the next-round price so that equilibrium prices decline. Moreover, sequential and simultaneous auctions are not bidder-payoff equivalent nor revenue equivalent.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosato, Antonio, 2014. "Loss Aversion in Sequential Auctions: Endogenous Interdependence, Informational Externalities and the "Afternoon Effect"," MPRA Paper 56824, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56824
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56824/1/MPRA_paper_56824.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Csoka & P. Jean-Jacques Herings, 2022. "Centralized clearing mechanisms: A programming approach," The Journal of Mechanism and Institution Design, Society for the Promotion of Mechanism and Institution Design, University of York, vol. 7(1), pages 45-69, December.
    2. von Wangenheim, Jonas, 2019. "English versus Vickrey auctions with loss averse bidders," Discussion Papers 2019/1, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Benjamin Balzer & Antonio Rosato, 2018. "Expectations-Based Loss Aversion in Common-Value Auctions: Extensive vs. Intensive Risk," Working Paper Series 50, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Dato, Simon & Grunewald, Andreas & Müller, Daniel & Strack, Philipp, 2017. "Expectation-based loss aversion and strategic interaction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 681-705.
    5. Benjamin Balzer & Antonio Rosato & Jonas von Wangenheim, 2020. "Dutch versus First-Price Auctions with Dynamic Expectations-Based Reference-Dependent Preferences," Working Paper Series 2020/05, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Ola Andersson & Tommy Andersson, 2017. "Timing and presentation effects in sequential auctions," The Journal of Mechanism and Institution Design, Society for the Promotion of Mechanism and Institution Design, University of York, vol. 2(1), pages 39-55, December.
    7. Andersson , Ola & Andersson , Tommy, 2015. "Decomposing the Afternoon Effect: An Empirical Investigation of Sequential Train Ticket Auctions," Working Papers 2015:28, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    8. Dato, Simon & Grunewald, Andreas & Müller, Daniel, 2015. "Expectation-Based Loss Aversion and Strategic Interaction," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 02/2015, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    9. Meisner, Vincent & von Wangenheim, Jonas, 2019. "School Choice and Loss Aversion," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 208, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    10. Rosato, Antonio, 2017. "Sequential negotiations with loss-averse buyers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 290-304.
    11. Benjamin Balzer & Antonio Rosato, 2021. "Expectations-Based Loss Aversion in Auctions with Interdependent Values: Extensive vs. Intensive Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1056-1074, February.
    12. Dato, Simon & Müller, Daniel & Grunewald, Andreas, 2015. "Expectation-Based Loss Aversion and Strategic Interaction," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112947, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Bnaya Dreyfuss & Ofer Glicksohn & Ori Heffetz & Assaf Romm, 2022. "Deferred Acceptance with News Utility," NBER Working Papers 30635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. von Wangenheim, Jonas, 2017. "English versus Vickrey Auctions with Loss Averse Bidders," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 48, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reference-Dependent Preferences; Loss Aversion; Sequential Auctions; Afternoon Effect.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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