[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/109875.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Development and Central Bank Bilateral Currency Swaps: Is there Trade Effect?

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammed Ahmed, Abdullahi
Abstract
ABSTRACT The proper assessment and understanding of the financial system are at the core of a robust analysis of macroeconomic fundamentals (Svirydzenka, 2016). Bilateral currency swap enables countries to boost their liquidity access in the financial system for trade and financial transaction. Significantly, we examine the financial development of both China and its currency swap partners. We test our empirical model using data on financial development for a sample of 27 countries. We provide empirical evidence that currency swap is important for trade especially for countries with relatively low level of financial development. It is well documented that the differences in development amongst countries are substantial, and such differences are important in the determination of trade pattern. The level of financial development was proxied by the interaction term of disaggregated measure of financial development such access, depth, and efficiency each interacted with swaps. We provide empirical evidence that differential level of financial development can be a key determinant of whether a country can use currency swap lines for international trade. In rich countries, strong financial system promote trade, the opposite is the case in poorer ones. Perhaps, empirical tests on the influence of financial system and on trade remain on the research agenda especially looking at industry-level import and export data.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Ahmed, Abdullahi, 2019. "Financial Development and Central Bank Bilateral Currency Swaps: Is there Trade Effect?," MPRA Paper 109875, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Aug 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:109875
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/109875/11/MPRA_paper_109875.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Loayza, Norman V. & Ranciere, Romain, 2006. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1051-1076, June.
    2. Keith Blackburn & Niloy Bose & Salvatore Capasso, 2005. "Financial Development, Financing Choice and Economic Growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 135-149, May.
    3. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    4. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    5. Matias Braun & Claudio Raddatz, 2004. "Trade liberalization and the politics of financial development," Working Papers 04-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long‐run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 593-611, May.
    7. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2009. "Globalization and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 164-169, July.
    8. Yongfu Huang & Jonathan Temple, 2005. "Does external trade promote financial development?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 05/575, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    9. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2004. "Trade and financial development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3347, The World Bank.
    10. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2005. "The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 173-222.
    11. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    12. Andreas Hauskrecht & Nhan Le, 2005. "Capital Account Liberalization for a Small, Open Economy," Working Papers 2005-13, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    13. Baltagi, Badi H. & Demetriades, Panicos O. & Law, Siong Hook, 2009. "Financial development and openness: Evidence from panel data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 285-296, July.
    14. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
    15. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2005. "Credit Market Imperfections and Patterns of International Trade and Capital Flows," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 714-723, 04/05.
    16. Michael W. Klein, 2005. "Capital Account Liberalization, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Santiago Carbó & Edward P. M. Gardener & Philip Molyneux, 2005. "Financial Exclusion in Developing Countries," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Financial Exclusion, chapter 0, pages 145-168, Palgrave Macmillan.
    18. Guariglia, Alessandra & Poncet, Sandra, 2008. "Could financial distortions be no impediment to economic growth after all? Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 633-657, December.
    19. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Park, Donghyun, 2011. "International reserves and swap lines: Substitutes or complements?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-18, January.
    20. Ju, Jiandong & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2011. "When is quality of financial system a source of comparative advantage?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 178-187, July.
    21. Ali F. Darrat & Khaled Elkhal & Brent McCallum, 2006. "Finance and Macroeconomic Performance. Some Evidence for Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 5-28, May.
    22. Fung, Michael K., 2009. "Financial development and economic growth: Convergence or divergence?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 56-67, February.
    23. Aizenman, Joshua & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2010. "Selective swap arrangements and the global financial crisis: Analysis and interpretation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 353-365, June.
    24. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    25. Christophe Destais, 2016. "Central Bank Currency Swaps and the International Monetary System," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(10), pages 2253-2266, October.
    26. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2009. "Finance and Inequality: Theory and Evidence," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 287-318, November.
    27. Beck, Thorsten, 2002. "Financial development and international trade: Is there a link?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 107-131, June.
    28. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Bruce D. Smith, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209.
    29. Pol Antràs & Ricardo J. Caballero, 2009. "Trade and Capital Flows: A Financial Frictions Perspective," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(4), pages 701-744, August.
    30. Chan, Jackie M.L. & Manova, Kalina, 2015. "Financial development and the choice of trade partners," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 122-145.
    31. Ductor, Lorenzo & Grechyna, Daryna, 2015. "Financial development, real sector, and economic growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 393-405.
    32. Asli Demeirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine (ed.), 0. "Finance and Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 17119.
    33. Panicos Demetriades & Svetlana Andrianova, "undated". "Finance and Growth: What We Know and What We Need To Know," Discussion Papers in Economics 03/15, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    34. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    35. repec:bla:econom:v:65:y:1998:i:257:p:107-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Farhang Niroomand & Massomeh Hajilee & Omar M. Al Nasser, 2014. "Financial market development and trade openness: evidence from emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(13), pages 1490-1498, May.
    37. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-50, July.
    38. Ross Levine, 2003. "More on finance and growth: more finance, more growth?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Jul), pages 31-46.
    39. Menyah, Kojo & Nazlioglu, Saban & Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2014. "Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 386-394.
    40. Svaleryd, Helena & Vlachos, Jonas, 2005. "Financial markets, the pattern of industrial specialization and comparative advantage: Evidence from OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 113-144, January.
    41. Braun, Matias, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and the Politics of Financial Development," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt70v7f9ff, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed Mohammed, Abdullahi, 2023. "Essay on the Philosophy of Islamic Economics," MPRA Paper 119630, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Dec 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammed Ahmed, Abdullahi, 2019. "China’s Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement: Strategic Move to Foster Political and Financial Hegemony," MPRA Paper 109879, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Oct 2019.
    2. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar & Hall, John H. & Norman, Neville R., 2017. "Finance and growth: Evidence from the ARF countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-148.
    3. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173, November.
    4. Zhang, Chengsi & Zhu, Yueteng & Lu, Zhe, 2015. "Trade openness, financial openness, and financial development in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 287-309.
    5. Ho, Sin-Yu & Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2018. "Short- and Long-term Impact of Trade Openness on Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 84272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Chengsi Zhang & Yueteng Zhu, 2020. "The interest group theory of financial development in China: Openness and the role of interest groups," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 982-999, April.
    7. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2019. "Financial Development and Tax Revenue in Developing Countries: Investigating the International Trade and Economic Growth Channels," EconStor Preprints 206628, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Vighneswara Swamy & Munusamy Dharani, 2021. "Thresholds in finance–growth nexus: Evidence from G‐7 economies," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 1-40, March.
    9. Nahed Zghidi & Zouheir Abida, 2014. "Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in North African Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(53), pages 91-120, September.
    10. Imen Mohamed Sghaier, 2023. "Trade openness, financial development and economic growth in North African countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1729-1740, April.
    11. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    12. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Norman, Neville R., 2015. "Insurance development and the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from 34 OECD countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-22.
    13. Law, Siong Hook & Singh, Nirvikar, 2014. "Does too much finance harm economic growth?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 36-44.
    14. Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis & Demetrios Moschos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "Financial Development and Economic Activity in Advanced and Developing Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Cointegration," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 163-177, February.
    15. Fu, Junhui & Liu, Yufang & Chen, Rongda & Yu, Xiaojian & Tang, Wen, 2020. "Trade openness, internet finance development and banking sector development in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 670-678.
    16. Ang, James B. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 2007. "Financial liberalization, financial sector development and growth: Evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 215-233, September.
    17. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Sana Azzabi, 2014. "Intégration financière internationale et croissance économique dans les pays émergents et en développement : le canal du développement financier," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 22(3), pages 27-68.
    18. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Anamaria Diana Sova & Robert Sova, 2023. "The short‐run and long‐run effects of trade openness on financial development: Some panel evidence for Europe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3891-3901, October.
    19. Morck, Randall & Deniz Yavuz, M. & Yeung, Bernard, 2011. "Banking system control, capital allocation, and economy performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 264-283, May.
    20. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2008. "Finance, Financial Sector Policies, and Long-Run Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28021.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ABSTRACT The proper assessment and understanding of the financial system are at the core of a robust analysis of macroeconomic fundamentals (Svirydzenka; 2016). Bilateral currency swap enables countries to boost their liquidity access in the financial system for trade and financial transaction. Significantly; we examine the financial development of both China and its currency swap partners. We test our empirical model using data on financial development for a sample of 27 countries. We provide empirical evidence that currency swap is important for trade especially for countries with relatively low level of financial development. It is well documented that the differences in development amongst countries are substantial; and such differences are important in the determination of trade pattern. The level of financial development was proxied by the interaction term of disaggregated measure of financial development such access; depth; and efficiency each interacted with swaps. We provide empirical evidence that differential level of financial development can be a key determinant of whether a country can use currency swap lines for international trade. In rich countries; strong financial system promote trade; the opposite is the case in poorer ones. Perhaps; empirical tests on the influence of financial system and on trade remain on the research agenda especially looking at industry-level import and export data.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:109875. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.