[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/104132.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The synthetic control method: Small T, small N Monte Carlo evidence and an application to the effects of privatizing probation services on revoke rates

Author

Listed:
  • Süß, Philipp
Abstract
Relying on synthetic controls to estimate treatment effects recently gained popularity in applied econometrics. The small sample properties of the synthetic control estimator are however not suffciently investigated and even the proofs of consistency impose a factor model and require either the pre-treatment period or the pre-treatment period and the size of the donor pool going to infinity. Since applications often ignore the lack of statistical foundation in small samples, a small T small N Monte Carlo study covering standard econometric models like the ones from Differences-in-Differences setups, heterogeneous ADLX models with and without unit roots and random coeffcient models is conducted. The results suggest that the estimator is frequently unbiased, that unit roots are problematic and that a main placebo test has good size and mediocre power properties. Furthermore, the synthetic control method is used to estimate the causal effect of outsourcing probation and parole services on revoke rates by exploiting a natural experiment in Germany. Results provide evidence against increases in revoke rates due to outsourcing.

Suggested Citation

  • Süß, Philipp, 2016. "The synthetic control method: Small T, small N Monte Carlo evidence and an application to the effects of privatizing probation services on revoke rates," MPRA Paper 104132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/104132/1/MPRA_paper_104107.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sarah Bohn & Magnus Lofstrom & Steven Raphael, 2014. "Did the 2007 Legal Arizona Workers Act Reduce the State's Unauthorized Immigrant Population?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 258-269, May.
    2. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    3. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    4. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    6. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    7. Kaul, Ashok & Klößner, Stefan & Pfeifer, Gregor & Schieler, Manuel, 2015. "Synthetic Control Methods: Never Use All Pre-Intervention Outcomes Together With Covariates," MPRA Paper 83790, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel & Ferran A. Mazaira-Font, 2020. "Ensuring Stability, Accuracy and Meaningfulness in Synthetic Control Methods: The Regularized SHAP-Distance Method," IREA Working Papers 202005, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2020.
    2. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    3. Duc A. Nguyen & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Tristan Kohl, 2024. "Mean Reversion of the German City System After the WWII Bombing of Cities: What Is the Mean?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11423, CESifo.
    4. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: How Tax Salience and Fuel Substitution Mediate Climate and Health Benefits," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Becker, Maike & Pfeifer, Gregor & Schweikert, Karsten, 2021. "Price Effects of the Austrian Fuel Price Fixing Act: A Synthetic Control Study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    6. Björn Falkenhall & Jonas Månsson & Sofia Tano, 2020. "Impact of VAT Reform on Swedish Restaurants: A Synthetic Control Group Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(2), pages 824-850, April.
    7. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: Causal Effects of Fuel Taxation and Mediating Mechanisms for Reducing Climate and Pollution Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 10508, CESifo.
    8. Maïmouna DIAKITE & Jean-François BRUN & Souleymane DIARRA & Nasser ARY TANIMOUNE, 2017. "The effects of tax coordination on the tax revenue mobilization in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)," Working Papers 201712, CERDI.
    9. Diego Zambiasi & Steven Stillman, 2020. "The Pot Rush: Is Legalized Marijuana A Positive Local Amenity?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 667-679, April.
    10. Kuosmanen, Timo & Zhou, Xun & Eskelinen, Juha & Malo, Pekka, 2021. "Design Flaw of the Synthetic Control Method," MPRA Paper 106328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mirkina, Irina, 2018. "FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short- and long-run effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 198-225.
    12. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel & Ferran A. Mazaira-Font, 2021. "Decoupling synthetic control methods to ensure stability, accuracy and meaningfulness," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 549-584, December.
    13. Gunadi Christian, 2020. "Examining the Impact of Legal Arizona Worker Act on Native Female Labor Supply in the United States," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-41, March.
    14. Kleis, Mischa & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel, 2016. "The long-run effect of fiscal consolidation on economic growth: Evidence from quantitative case studies," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-047, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2016.
    15. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    16. Pekka Malo & Juha Eskelinen & Xun Zhou & Timo Kuosmanen, 2024. "Computing Synthetic Controls Using Bilevel Optimization," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1113-1136, August.
    17. Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt & Kaspar Wuthrich, 2020. "Protectionism and economic growth: Causal evidence from the first era of globalization," Papers 2010.02378, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    18. Sandra Achten & Lars Beyer & Antje-Mareike Dietrich & Dennis Ebeling & Christian Lessmann & Arne Steinkraus, 2019. "Large scale infrastructure investment and economic performance – a case study of Oresund," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 21-26, January.
    19. Johanna Catherine Maclean & Brendan Saloner, 2018. "Substance Use Treatment Provider Behavior and Healthcare Reform: Evidence from Massachusetts," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 76-101, January.
    20. Runst, Petrik & Thonipara, Anita, 2020. "Dosis facit effectum why the size of the carbon tax matters: Evidence from the Swedish residential sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Synthetic control method; Finite sample properties; Unit roots; Probation; Parole; Privatization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • K40 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.