[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/104182.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy Rule and Taylor Principle by GMM and DSGE Approaches: The Case of Mongolia

Author

Listed:
  • Taguchi, Hiroyuki
Abstract
This article aims to examine the monetary policy rule under inflation targeting in Mongolia with a focus on its conformity to the Taylor principle, through the two kinds of approaches: a monetary policy reaction function by the generalized-method-of-moments (GMM) estimation and the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a small open economy version by the Bayesian estimation. The main findings are summarized as follows. First, the GMM estimation identified the inflation-responsive rule fulfilling the Taylor principle in the recent phase of the Mongolian inflation targeting. Second, the DSGE-model estimation endorsed the GMM estimation by producing a consistent outcome on the Mongolian monetary policy rule. Third, the Mongolian rule was estimated to have a weaker response to inflation than the rules of the other emerging Asian adopters of inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2020. "Monetary Policy Rule and Taylor Principle by GMM and DSGE Approaches: The Case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 104182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104182
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/104182/1/MPRA_paper_104182.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
    2. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Kenichi Tamegawa & Mesa Wanasilp, 2020. "Taylor Principle under Inflation Targeting in Emerging ASEAN Economies: GMM and DSGE Approaches," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 35-47.
    3. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework, Princeton University Press.
    4. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Chizuru Kato, 2011. "Assessing the performance of inflation targeting in East Asian economies," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 25(1), pages 93-102, May.
    5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    6. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    9. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    10. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2018. "Monetary policy rule under inflation targeting: the case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 86132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. John Michael Ian S. Salas, 2006. "The BSP’s monetary policy reaction function from 1992 to 2003," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 23-48, December.
    12. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    13. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    14. Soyoung Kim & Yung Chul Park, 2006. "Inflation targeting in Korea: a model of success?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 140-164, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Khishigjargal, Erdenechuluun, 2018. "Monetary Policy Rule under Inflation Targeting in Mongolia," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 22(4), pages 531-555, December.
    16. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    17. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    18. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    19. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Mesa Wanasilp, 2018. "Monetary Policy Rule and its Performance under Inflation Targeting in Thailand," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 5(1), pages 19-28.
    20. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    21. Yu Hsing, 2009. "Is the monetary policy rule responsive to exchange rate changes? The case of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 56(2), pages 123-132, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gunbileg Ganbayar, 2021. "Analysis of External Debt Sustainability in Mongolia: an Estimated DSGE Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Gunbileg Ganbayar, 2021. "An Investigation into the Sources of Depreciations in Mongolian Tugrik Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, November.
    3. Bhavesh Garg, 2023. "Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Mitigating Pandemic-Induced Macroeconomic Impacts," Working Papers DP-2023-20, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    4. Linas Jurkšas & Francisco Gomes Pereira, 2023. "Do the projected fiscal deficits play a role in ECB monetary policymaking?," Working Papers REM 2023/0258, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Ganbayar Gunbileg, 2020. "Monetary Policy Rule and Taylor Principle in Mongolia: GMM and DSGE Approaches," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-16, November.
    2. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2020. "Monetary Policy Rule and Taylor Principle in Emerging ASEAN Economies: GMM and DSGE Approaches," MPRA Paper 100847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Kenichi Tamegawa & Mesa Wanasilp, 2020. "Taylor Principle under Inflation Targeting in Emerging ASEAN Economies: GMM and DSGE Approaches," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 35-47.
    4. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2018. "Monetary policy rule under inflation targeting: the case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 86132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    6. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    7. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    8. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis with Potentially Misspecified Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1415-1450, September.
    9. Jovanovic, Branimir & Petreski, Marjan, 2012. "Monetary policy in a small open economy with fixed exchange rate: The case of Macedonia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 594-608.
    10. Mesa Wanasilp, 2021. "Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging ASEAN Economies: Adaptability of Taylor Principle," International Journal of Asian Business and Information Management (IJABIM), IGI Global, vol. 12(3), pages 255-274, July.
    11. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Wanasilp, Mesa, 2017. "Monetary policy rule and its performance under inflation targeting: the evidence of Thailand," MPRA Paper 83544, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Petreski, Marjan & Jovanovic, Branimir, 2012. "New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy in China," MPRA Paper 40497, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
    14. Coenen, Günter & Straub, Roland & Trabandt, Mathias, 2013. "Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 367-386.
    15. Marc P. Giannoni & Jean Boivin, 2005. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 431, Society for Computational Economics.
    16. Rupert, Peter & Šustek, Roman, 2019. "On the mechanics of New-Keynesian models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 53-69.
    17. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    18. Latsos Sophia, 2018. "Real Wage Effects of Japan’s Monetary Policy," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 69(1), pages 177-215, July.
    19. Michael B. Devereux & Ozge Senay & Alan Sutherland, 2014. "Nominal Stability and Financial Globalization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 921-959, August.
    20. Marco Di Pietro & Enrico Saltari, 2018. "Economic Fluctuations in the U.S. and Euro Area: Quantifying the Contribution of Technical Change," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(1), pages 203-216, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy rule; Taylor Principle; Mongolia; Inflation targeting; monetary policy reaction function; GMM; the New Keynesian DSGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.