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Textual Information and IPO Underpricing: A Machine Learning Approach

Author

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  • Katsafados, Apostolos G.
  • Androutsopoulos, Ion
  • Chalkidis, Ilias
  • Fergadiotis, Manos
  • Leledakis, George N.
  • Pyrgiotakis, Emmanouil G.
Abstract
This study examines the predictive power of textual information from S-1 filings in explaining IPO underpricing. Our empirical approach differs from previous research, as we utilize several machine learning algorithms to predict whether an IPO will be underpriced, or not. We analyze a large sample of 2,481 U.S. IPOs from 1997 to 2016, and we find that textual information can effectively complement traditional financial variables in terms of prediction accuracy. In fact, models that use both textual data and financial variables as inputs have superior performance compared to models using a single type of input. We attribute our findings to the fact that textual information can reduce the ex-ante valuation uncertainty of IPO firms, thus leading to more accurate estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Katsafados, Apostolos G. & Androutsopoulos, Ion & Chalkidis, Ilias & Fergadiotis, Manos & Leledakis, George N. & Pyrgiotakis, Emmanouil G., 2020. "Textual Information and IPO Underpricing: A Machine Learning Approach," MPRA Paper 103813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103813
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Initial public offerings; First-day returns; Machine learning; Natural language processing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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