[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/101925.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Revisiting the Trade and Unemployment Nexus: Empirical Evidence from the Nigerian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Onifade, Stephen
  • Ay, Ahmet
  • Asongu, Simplice
  • Bekun, Festus
Abstract
The recent exacerbation of unemployment crisis in Nigeria stands to be a serious threat to both socio-economic stability and progress of the country just as the report from the nation’s bureau of statistics shows that at least over 8.5 million people had no gainful employment at all as at the last quarter of the year 2017. It is on the above premise, that the present study explores the link between trade and unemployment for the case of Nigeria with the intention of exploring how the unemployment crisis has been impacted within the dynamics of the country’s trade performance. The empirical evidence shows that the nation’s terms of trade were insignificant to unemployment rate while trade openness and domestic investment, on the other hand, have significant opposing impacts on unemployment in Nigeria over the period of the study. Further breakdowns from the empirical analysis also revealed that the Philips curves proposition is valid within the Nigerian economic context while the evidences for the validity of Okun’s law only exist in the short-run scenario. Based on the empirical results, we recommend that concerted effort should be geared toward stimulating domestic investment by providing adequate financial and infrastructural facilities that will promote ease of doing business while utmost precautions are taken to ensure that unemployment crisis is not exacerbated when combating inflation in the economy in the wake of dynamic trade relations.

Suggested Citation

  • Onifade, Stephen & Ay, Ahmet & Asongu, Simplice & Bekun, Festus, 2019. "Revisiting the Trade and Unemployment Nexus: Empirical Evidence from the Nigerian Economy," MPRA Paper 101925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101925
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/101925/1/MPRA_paper_101925.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Folarin, Oludele E. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2019. "Financial liberalization and long-run stability of money demand in Nigeria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 963-980.
    2. Olarreaga, Marcelo & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric & Fugazza, Marco & Carrère, Céline, 2014. "Trade in Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 9916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Prat, Julien & Schmerer, Hans-Jörg, 2011. "Globalization and labor market outcomes: Wage bargaining, search frictions, and firm heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 39-73, January.
    4. Hartmut Egger & Udo Kreickemeier, 2017. "Firm Heterogeneity and the Labor Market Effects of Trade Liberalization," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Trade and Labor Markets Welfare, Inequality and Unemployment, chapter 10, pages 265-306, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    6. Simplice Asongu & Oludele Folarin & Nicholas Biekpe, 2019. "The stability of demand for money in the proposed Southern African Monetary Union," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 222-244, August.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    8. Schneider, Patricia Higino, 2005. "International trade, economic growth and intellectual property rights: A panel data study of developed and developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 529-547, December.
    9. Cameron, David R., 1978. "The Expansion of the Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1243-1261, December.
    10. Irwin, Douglas A. & Tervio, Marko, 2002. "Does trade raise income?: Evidence from the twentieth century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-18, October.
    11. Ghouse, Ghulam & Khan, Saud Ahmed & Rehman, Atiq Ur, 2018. "ARDL model as a remedy for spurious regression: problems, performance and prospectus," MPRA Paper 83973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    13. Asongu, Simplice A. & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "Foreign direct investment, information technology and economic growth dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    14. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Asongu, Simplice A. & Folarin, Oludele E. & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2019. "The long run stability of money demand in the proposed West African monetary union," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 483-495.
    16. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    17. Ikechukwu D. NWAKA & Stephen T. ONIFADE, 2015. "Government Size, Openness and Income Risk Nexus: New Evidence from Some African Countries," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 15/056, African Governance and Development Institute..
    18. Anthony Orji & Onyinye I Anthony-Orji & Joan C Okafor, 2015. "Inflation And Unemployment Nexus In Nigeria: Another Test of the Phillips Curve," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(5), pages 766-778.
    19. Miaojie Yu, 2015. "Processing Trade, Tariff Reductions and Firm Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 943-988, June.
    20. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    21. Hasan, Rana & Mitra, Devashish & Ranjan, Priya & Ahsan, Reshad N., 2012. "Trade liberalization and unemployment: Theory and evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 269-280.
    22. Tim Büthe & Helen V. Milner, 2008. "The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 741-762, October.
    23. Ikechukwu D. Nwaka & Stephen T. Onifade, 2015. "Government Size, Openness and Income Risk Nexus: New Evidence from Some African Countries," Research Africa Network Working Papers 15/056, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    24. Petia Topalova & Amit Khandelwal, 2011. "Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity: The Case of India," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 995-1009, August.
    25. Anthony Orji & Onyinye .I. Anthony-Orji & Joan C. Okafor, 2015. "Inflation And Unemployment Nexus In Nigeria: Another Test of the Phillips Curve," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(5), pages 766-778, May.
    26. Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
    27. Mauricio Mesquita Moreira & Sheila Najberg, 2000. "Trade liberalisation in Brazil: Creating or exporting jobs?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 78-99.
    28. Gizem Uzuner & Festus Victor Bekun & Seyi Saint Akadiri, 2017. "Public Expenditures and Economic Growth: Was Wagner Right? Evidence from Turkey," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 3(2), pages 36-40, June.
    29. Frank Iyekoretin Ogbeide & Hilary Kanwanye & Sunday Kadiri, 2016. "Revisiting the Determinants of Unemployment in Nigeria: Do Resource Dependence and Financial Development Matter?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(4), pages 430-443, December.
    30. Ikechukwu D Nwaka & Kalu E Uma & Gulcay Tuna, 2015. "Trade openness and unemployment: Empirical evidence for Nigeria," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 26(1), pages 117-136, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dorcas Gonese & Kin Sibanda & Phillip Ngonisa, 2023. "Trade Openness and Unemployment in Selected Southern African Development Community (SADC) Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-26, October.
    2. Samereh Pourmoradian & Ali Vandshoari & Davoud Omarzadeh & Ayyoob Sharifi & Naser Sanobuar & Seyyed Samad Hosseini, 2021. "An Integrated Approach to Assess Potential and Sustainability of Handmade Carpet Production in Different Areas of the East Azerbaijan Province of Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, February.
    3. ONIFADE Stephen Taiwo & ACET Hakan & ÇEVİK Savaş, 2022. "Modeling The Impacts Of Msmes' Contributions To Gdp And Their Constraints On Unemployment: The Case Of African’S Most Populous Country," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 154-170, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephen Taiwo Onifade & Savaş Çevik & Savaş Erdoğan & Simplice Asongu & Festus Victor Bekun, 2020. "An empirical retrospect of the impacts of government expenditures on economic growth: new evidence from the Nigerian economy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Rendón Obando, Hernando & Ramírez Franco, Luz Dary, 2017. "Impacto de la inversión extranjera directa y del grado de apertura de la economía sobre el crecimiento económico para América Latina 1980-2010/Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Openness Degree o," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 217-244, Enero.
    3. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    4. Devashish Mitra, 2019. "Responses to Trade Opening: Evidence and Lessons from Asia," Working Papers id:12977, eSocialSciences.
    5. L. ALAN WINTERS & NEIL McCULLOCH & ANDREW McKAY, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 14, pages 271-314, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Dibyendu Maiti & Sugata Marjit, 2015. "Regional Openness, Income Growth and Disparity during 1980–2009," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 16(1), pages 145-166, March.
    7. Nigai, Sergey, 2023. "Selection effects, inequality, and aggregate gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Mr. Andrew Berg & Anne O. Krueger, 2003. "Trade, Growth, and Poverty: A Selective Survey," IMF Working Papers 2003/030, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Innocent .U. Duru & Bartholomew .O.N. Okafor & Friday .O. Adikwu & Franklin .C. Njoku, 2020. "Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth: An Assessment of Nigerian Experience," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(3), pages 194-213, September.
    10. Gabriel Felbermayr, 2004. "Does trade cause divergence? Dynamic panel data evidence," Economics working papers 2004-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    11. Navaratnam Ravinthirakumaran, 2014. "Applicability of Openness-led Growth Hypothesis in Sri Lanka," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 15(2), pages 241-263, September.
    12. Sugata Marjit & Anwesha Basu & C. Veeramani, 2019. "Growth Gains from Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 7905, CESifo.
    13. Huy Quang Doan, 2019. "Trade, Institutional Quality and Income: Empirical Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-23, May.
    14. T. Gries & R. Grundmann & I. Palnau & M. Redlin, 2017. "Innovations, growth and participation in advanced economies - a review of major concepts and findings," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 293-351, April.
    15. Måns Söderbom & Francis Teal, 2003. "Openness and human capital as sources of productivity growth: An empirical investigation," CSAE Working Paper Series 2003-06, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    16. Badinger, Harald, 2008. "Trade policy and productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 867-891, July.
    17. Rangan Gupta & Lardo Stander & Andrea Vaona, 2023. "Openness and growth: Is the relationship non‐linear?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3071-3099, July.
    18. Kuo-Hsing Kuo & Cheng-Te Lee & Chen Fang, 2014. "Free Trade and Economic Growth," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1-2), pages 69-76, June.
    19. Rosa Capolupo, 2005. "THE NEW GROWTH THEORIES AND THEIR EMPIRICS, Discussion Paper in Economics, University of Glasgow, N. 2005-04 (http://www.gla.ac.uk/Acad/Economics," GE, Growth, Math methods 0506003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Abdulkadir Abdulrashid Rafindadi & Isah Buhari Aliyu & Ojonugwa Usman, 2022. "Revisiting the electricity consumption-led growth hypothesis: is the rule defied in France?," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nigeria; Unemployment; Trade; Phillips Curves; Okun’s law;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101925. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.