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Macroprudential Policy and the Probability of a Banking Crisis

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  • Nakatani, Ryota
Abstract
The ultimate purpose of macroprudential policy is to avoid financial instability, such as banking crises, which have a long-lasting and devastating effect on the economy. Although a growing number of studies have examined the effects of macroprudential policy on credit growth, few empirical studies have analyzed its effect on the probability of a banking crisis. Does macroprudential policy actually affect the probability of a banking crisis? Do other macroeconomic policies matter for the effectiveness of macroprudential policy? To answer these questions, this paper empirically investigates the effect of macroprudential policy on the probability of a banking crisis and its relationship with other macroeconomic policies. Specifically, using data on 65 countries from 2000 to 2016, we employ a probit model to analyze the effect of changes in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on crisis probability. Our results show that macroprudential policy is effective in changing the probability of a banking crisis via a credit channel and that its effectiveness depends on other macroeconomic policies. Changes in the LTV ratio are found to be effective in influencing the probability of a banking crisis in countries that have inflation targeting frameworks, floating exchange rate regimes, and/or no capital controls. Our results underscore the importance of policy coordination among different government bodies to design an appropriate macroprudential policy, especially in the current context of the Covid-19 crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Nakatani, Ryota, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy and the Probability of a Banking Crisis," MPRA Paper 101157, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101157
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    Cited by:

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    6. Nakatani, Ryota, 2022. "Productivity drivers of infrastructure companies: network industries to maximize economies of scale in the digital era," MPRA Paper 115531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shu-Ling Lin & Xiao Jin, 2023. "Does ESG Predict Systemic Banking Crises? A Computational Economics Model of Early Warning Systems with Interpretable Multi-Variable LSTM based on Mixture Attention," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, January.
    8. Teixeira, André, 2022. "The real effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from micro data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1165-1178.
    9. Lorenčič Eva & Festić Mejra, 2021. "The Impact of Seven Macroprudential Policy Instruments on Financial Stability in Six Euro Area Economies," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 21(3), pages 259-290, September.
    10. McQuinn, Kieran & O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2021. "Credit access, macroprudential rules and policy interventions: Lessons for potential first time buyers," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 944-963.
    11. Ćehajić, Aida & Košak, Marko, 2022. "Bank lending and small and medium-sized enterprises’ access to finance – Effects of macroprudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Ćehajić, Aida & Košak, Marko, 2021. "Macroprudential measures and developments in bank funding costs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Hodula, Martin & Janků, Jan & Pfeifer, Lukáš, 2023. "Macro-prudential policies to contain the effect of structural risks on financial downturns," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1204-1222.
    14. Chokri Zehri & Zagros Madjd‐Sadjadi, 2024. "Capital flow management and monetary policy to control credit growth," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 637-676, July.
    15. Eva Lorencic & Mejra Festic, 2021. "Macroprudential Policy Versus Other Economic Policies," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 23(2), pages 33-66, December.
    16. Carlos Madeira, "undated". "The impact of financial crises on industrial growth: lessons from the last 40 years," BIS Working Papers 1214, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Ryota Nakatani, 2021. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.
    18. Alexandr Patalaha & Maria A. Shchepeleva, 2023. "Bank Crisis Management Policies and the New Instability," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 43-60, December.
    19. Ryota Nakatani, 2024. "Food companies' productivity dynamics: Exploring the role of intangible assets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 185-226, January.
    20. Tiago F. A. Matos & João C. A. Teixeira & Tiago M. Dutra, 2023. "The contribution of macroprudential policies to banks' resilience: Lessons from the systemic crises and the COVID‐19 pandemic shock," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 794-830, December.
    21. Frederic Boissay & Claudio Borio & Cristina Leonte & Ilhyock Shim, 2023. "Prudential policy and financial dominance: exploring the link," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    22. Muhammad Suhail Rizwan & Anum Qureshi & Irfan Ullah Sahibzada, 2024. "Macro-prudential regulations and systemic risk: the role of country-level governance indicators," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 305-325, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroprudential policy; loan-to-value (LTV) ratio; banking crisis; probit model; monetary policy; exchange rate regime; capital control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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