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Finnish fiscal multipliers with a structural VAR model

Author

Listed:
  • Markku Lehmus
Abstract
The financial crisis has given birth to a debate on the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity, i.e. on fiscal multipliers. While there are now plenty of papers assessing fiscal multipliers for the U.S., we still have little knowledge about multipliers for economies such as Finland that have many distinguishable features. This paper estimates fiscal multipliers for the Finnish economy with a structural VAR model using Finnish data. The methodology of the model used is based on a much cited study by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). The study finds expenditure multipliers greater than 1 in the short run and tax multipliers half of that value. Nevertheless, tax multipliers are more persistent in time. With public investments also included in the public expenditure variable, the expenditure multiplier becomes more persistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Markku Lehmus, 2015. "Finnish fiscal multipliers with a structural VAR model," Working Papers 293, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    • Handle: RePEc:pst:wpaper:293
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Günter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lindé & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Carlos d, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
    3. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
    5. Michael T. Owyang & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2013. "Are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack? evidence from 20th century historical data," Working Papers 2013-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Miguel Almunia & Agustín Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O’Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2010. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons [Germany: Guns, butter, and economic miracles]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 219-265.
    7. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
    8. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Valentina Colombo & Gabriela Nodari, 2015. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News From A Non‐linear World," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 746-776, May.
    9. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2014. "Fiscal multipliers in recessions and expansions : does it matter whether government spending is increasing or decreasing ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6993, The World Bank.
    10. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    11. Kuismanen, Mika & Kämppi, Ville, 2010. "The effects of fiscal policy on economic activity in Finland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1315-1323, September.
    12. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
    13. Michael T. Owyang & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2013. "Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 129-134, May.
    14. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
    15. Valerie Ramey & Sarah Zubairy & Michael Owyang, 2013. "Are Government Spending Multipliers State Dependent? Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Historical Data," 2013 Meeting Papers 290, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Keränen, Henri & Kuusi, Tero, 2016. "The EU’s Fiscal Targets and Their Economic Impact in Finland," ETLA Working Papers 33, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Henri Keränen & Sakari Lähdemäki, 2020. "Identification of fiscal SVARs in small open economies using trading partner forecast errors as instruments," Working Papers 330, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.

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