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How large are fiscal multipliers? A panel-data VAR approach for the Euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Silva

    (Faculdade de Economia, University of Porto)

  • Vitor Manuel Carvalho

    (Faculdade de Economia, University of Porto and CEF.UP)

  • Ana Paula Ribeiro

    (Faculdade de Economia, University of Porto and CEF.UP)

Abstract
In the current context where the limited role for monetary policy instruments apparently endows fiscal policy with higher effectiveness, European fiscal policy authorities are rather constrained by the fact of most countries being struggling against recessions together with the need to put public finances in a sustainable path. In this context, we assess how large are fiscal multipliers in Europe, for both aggregated and disaggregated spending and revenue variables. Moreover, we analyze how cycle phases and fiscal consolidation episodes shape the size of fiscal multipliers. We present evidence for the Euro area, relying on a VAR model with pooled annual data from 1998 to 2008. Estimation results show that, on average, transfers are the main driving force for the overall expenditure dynamics; moreover, wages exhibit negative impacts on output while positive effects are strongly driven by shocks in public investment and, to a lesser extent, by intermediate consumption. On the revenue side, all items impinge negatively on output growth. Additionally, our results show that public spending multiplier is positive in recessions while in expansions is smaller, inclusively, negative. Similarly, the effectiveness of the tax multiplier is, also, higher in recessions. Finally, we have found that consolidation phases affect negatively the size of multipliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Silva & Vitor Manuel Carvalho & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2013. "How large are fiscal multipliers? A panel-data VAR approach for the Euro area," FEP Working Papers 500, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    • Handle: RePEc:por:fepwps:500
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    2. Senekovič Marko & Kavkler Alenka & Bekő Jani, 2019. "Estimation of Government Spending Multiplier in EU Economies," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 65(1), pages 16-29, March.
    3. Paweł Baranowski & Piotr Krajewski & Michał Mackiewicz & Agata Szymańska, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle: A CEE Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(8), pages 1910-1921, August.
    4. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Lina Garsviene & Janina Seputiene, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Public Debt–Growth Relationship: The Role of the Expenditure Multiplier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, April.
    5. Heshmati, Almas & Kim, Jungsuk & Park, Donghyun, 2014. "Fiscal Policy and Inclusive Growth in Advanced Countries: Their Experience and Implications for Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 422, Asian Development Bank.
    6. Mindaugas Butkus & Janina Seputiene, 2018. "Growth Effect of Public Debt: The Role of Government Effectiveness and Trade Balance," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-27, November.
    7. Marina da Silva Sanches & Laura Barbosa de Carvalho, 2023. "Multiplier effects of social protection: a SVAR approach for Brazil," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 93-112, January.
    8. Dante Cardoso & Laura Carvalho & Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Luiza Nassif-Pires & Fernando Rugitsky & Marina Sanches, 2023. "The Multiplier Effects of Government Expenditures on Social Protection: A Multi-Country Analysis," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2023_11, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    9. José Carlos Coelho, 2020. "Self-defeating austerity in Portugal during the Troika's economic and financial adjustment programme," Working Papers REM 2020/0124, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. Almas Heshmati & Jungsuk Kim & Jacob Wood, 2019. "A Survey of Inclusive Growth Policy," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-18, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Fiscal multipliers; Fiscal shocks; Business-cycle fluctuations; Public debt; Euro area; VAR analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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