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Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker and Firm Heterogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • Anabela Carneiro

    (cef.up, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto)

  • Paulo Guimaraes

    (University of South Carolina, cef.up, and IZA Bonn)

  • Pedro Portugal

    (Banco de Portugal, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, and IZA Bonn)

Abstract
Using a longitudinal matched employer-employee data set for Portugal over the 1986-2005 period, this study analyzes the heterogeneity in wages responses to aggregate labor market conditions for newly hired workers and existing workers. Accounting for both worker and firm heterogeneity, the data support the hypothesis that entry wages are much more procyclical than current wages. A one-point increase in the unemployment rate decreases wages of newly hired male workers by around 2.8% and by just 1.4% for workers in continuing jobs. Since we estimate the fixed effects, we were able to show that unobserved heterogeneity plays a non-trivial role in the cyclicality of wages. In particular, worker fixed effects of new hires and separating workers behave countercyclically, whereas firm fixed effects exhibit a procyclical pattern. Finally, the results reveal, for all workers, a wage-productivity elasticity of 1.2, slightly above the one-for-one response predicted by the Mortensen-Pissarides model.

Suggested Citation

  • Anabela Carneiro & Paulo Guimaraes & Pedro Portugal, 2009. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker and Firm Heterogeneity," CEF.UP Working Papers 0903, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    • Handle: RePEc:por:cetedp:0903
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fella Giulio, 2012. "Matching, Wage Rigidities and Efficient Severance Pay," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-35, December.
    2. Ainara González de San Román & Yolanda F. Rebollo‐Sanz, 2018. "An Estimation Of Worker And Firm Effects With Censored Data," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 459-482, October.
    3. Luca Gambetti & Julián Messina, 2018. "Evolving Wage Cyclicality in Latin America," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 709-726.
    4. Anger, Silke, 2011. "The cyclicality of effective wages within employer–employee matches in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 786-797.
    5. Jael, Paul, 2019. "Does Marginal Productivity Mean Anything in Real Economic Life ?," MPRA Paper 97968, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2020.
    6. John T. Addison & Orgul D.Ozturk & Si Wang, 2013. "Job Promotion in Mid-Career: Gender, Recession and ‘Crowding’," GEMF Working Papers 2013-16, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2009_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Galuscak, Kamil & Keeney, Mary & Nicolitsas, Daphne & Smets, Frank & Strzelecki, Pawel & Vodopivec, Matija, 2012. "The determination of wages of newly hired employees: Survey evidence on internal versus external factors," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 802-812.
    9. Martins, Pedro S. & Opromolla, Luca David, 2009. "Exports, Imports and Wages: Evidence from Matched Firm-Worker-Product Panels," IZA Discussion Papers 4646, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Marotzke Petra & Anderton Robert & Bairrao Ana & Berson Clémence & Tóth Peter, 2020. "Asymmetric wage adjustment and employment in European firms," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-25, June.
    11. Paulo Guimarães & Pedro Portugal, 2009. "A Simple Feasible Alternative Procedure to Estimate Models with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects," Working Papers w200909, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Mion, Giordano & Opromolla, Luca David, 2014. "Managers' mobility, trade performance, and wages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 85-101.
    13. Galí, Jordi, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Unemployment," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 10, pages 487-546, Elsevier.
    14. Luca David Opromolla & Pedro Martins, 2011. "Why Ex(Im)porters Pay More: Evidence from Matched Firm-Worker Panels," Working Papers w201123, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    15. Emmanuel Saez & Pascal Michaillat, 2013. "A Theory of Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand as Functions of Market Tightness with Prices as Parameters," 2013 Meeting Papers 1216, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Pedro S. Martins & Gary Solon & Jonathan Thomas, 2010. "Measuring What Employers Really Do about Entry Wages over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 15767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Maritza López-Novella & Salimata Sissoko, 2009. "Working Paper 12-09 - Salaires et négociation collective en Belgique : une analyse microéconomique en panel," Working Papers 0912, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    18. Stüber, Heiko, 2012. "Are real entry wages rigid over the business cycle? : Empirical evidence for Germany from 1977 to 2009," IAB-Discussion Paper 201206, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    19. Philip Du Caju & Catherine Fuss & Ladislav Wintr, 2012. "Downward Wage Regidity for Different Workers and Firms," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 55(1), pages 5-32.
    20. G. de Walque & M. Druant & Ph. Du Caju & C. Fuss, 2010. "Lessons of the Wage Dynamics Network," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 55-75, June.
    21. Álvaro A. Novo & Mário Centeno, 2012. "Segmentation," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    22. Addison, John T. & Portugal, Pedro & Vilares, Hugo, 2015. "Unions and Collective Bargaining in the Wake of the Great Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 8943, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    23. Jael, Paul, 2019. "Sommes-nous payés selon la productivité marginale ? [Does Marginal Productivity Mean Anything in Real Economic Life ?]," MPRA Paper 93814, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Kilponen, Juha & Vanhala, Juuso, 2009. "Productivity and job flows: heterogeneity of new hires and continuing jobs in the business cycle," Working Paper Series 1080, European Central Bank.
    25. Yolanda F. Rebollo-Sanz, 2017. "Decomposing the structure of wages into firm and worker effects: some insights from a high unemployment economy," Working Papers 17.10, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    wage cyclicality; hires; firm-specific effects; compositional effects; labor productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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