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Time-varying spot and futures oil price dynamics

Author

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  • Guglielmo Caporale
  • Davide Ciferri
  • Alessandro Girardi
Abstract
We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets in the case of contracts with shorter maturities, but the relative contribution of the two types of market turns out to be highly unstable, especially for the most deferred contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2010. "Time-varying spot and futures oil price dynamics," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 75/2010, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    • Handle: RePEc:pia:wpaper:75/2010
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    3. Silvério, Renan & Szklo, Alexandre, 2012. "The effect of the financial sector on the evolution of oil prices: Analysis of the contribution of the futures market to the price discovery process in the WTI spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1799-1808.
    4. Go, You-How & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2017. "Investor demand, market efficiency and spot-futures relation: Further evidence from crude palm oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 135-146.
    5. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl & Christian Gross, 2016. "Price Discovery in Thinly Traded Futures Markets: How Thin is Too Thin?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(9), pages 851-869, September.
    6. Mensi, Walid & Brahim, Mariem & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Time-varying causality and correlations between spot and futures prices of natural gas, crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Damiani, Mirella & Pompei, Fabrizio & Ricci, Andrea, 2011. "Temporary job protection and productivity growth in EU economies," MPRA Paper 29698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
    9. Silvia Micheli, 2010. "Learning Curve and Wind Power," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 81/2010, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    10. Alessandro Girardi & Claudio Impenna, 2013. "Price Discovery In The Italian Sovereign Bonds Market: The Role Of Order Flow," Working Papers LuissLab 13108, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    11. Francesco Venturini, 2011. "Product variety, product quality, and evidence of Schumpeterian endogenous growth: a note," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 93/2011, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    12. Stefano Herzel & Marco Nicolosi & Cătălin Stărică, 2012. "The cost of sustainability in optimal portfolio decisions," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3-4), pages 333-349, May.
    13. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
    14. Gilles de Truchis & Florent Dubois, 2014. "Unbalanced Fractional Cointegration and the No-Arbitrage Condition on Commodity Markets," Working Papers halshs-01065775, HAL.
    15. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2014. "Non-parametric analysis of equity arbitrage," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 199-216.
    16. Mirella Damiani, 2010. "Labour regulation, corporate governance and varieties of capitalism," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 76/2010, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    17. Mu, Yali, 2024. "Measuring and benchmarking time-varying market efficiency," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344294, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    18. Osama Ahmed, 2021. "Assessing the Current Situation of the World Wheat Market Leadership: Using the Semi-Parametric Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-21, January.
    19. Davide Castellani & Fabio Pieri, 2011. "Foreign Investments and Productivity Evidence from European Regions," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 83/2011, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    20. Ahmed, Osama, 2021. "Assessing the current situation of the world wheat market leadership: Using the semi-parametric approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(2).
    21. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Oil market; Futures prices; Price Discovery.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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