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Long-term effects of rainfall shocks on foundational cognitive skills: Evidence from Peru

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Pazos

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Marta Favara

    (University of Oxford)

  • Alan Sánchez

    (Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE))

  • Douglas Scott

    (University of Oxford)

  • Jere Behrman

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract
Global warming is changing precipitation patterns, harming communities strongly tied to agricultural production, particularly in low-and-middle income countries (LMICs). Whilst the long-term effects of being exposed to rainfall shocks early in life on school achievement tests are well-established, there is little population-based evidence from LMICs on the mechanisms through which these shocks operate. This paper analyses the effects of early exposure to rainfall shocks on four foundational cognitive skills (FCSs), including executive functions (EF) that have been found to be key predictors of educational success. These skills were measured via a series of tablet-based tasks administered in Peru as part of the Young Lives longitudinal study (YLS). We combine the YLS data with gridded data on monthly precipitation to generate monthly, community-level rainfall estimates. The key identification strategy relies on temporary climatic shocks being uncorrelated with other latent determinants of FCS development. Our results show significant negative effects of early life exposure to rainfall shocks on EF. We also find evidence of rainfall shocks decreasing households’ abilities to invest in human capital, which may affect both FCS and domain-specific test scores. Interestingly, social policies providing affected households with additional resources partially offset the effects of the rainfall shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Pazos & Marta Favara & Alan Sánchez & Douglas Scott & Jere Behrman, 2022. "Long-term effects of rainfall shocks on foundational cognitive skills: Evidence from Peru," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:23-001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Skills formation; Human capital; Rainfall; Peru; Early childhood;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality

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