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History-Dependent Risk Attitude

Author

Listed:
  • David Dillenberger

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Kareen Rozen

    (Department of Economics, Yale University and Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics)

Abstract
We propose a model of history-dependent risk attitude (HDRA), allowing the attitude of a decision-maker (DM) towards risk at each stage of a T-stage lottery to evolve as a function of his history of disappointments and elations in prior stages. We establish an equivalence between the existence of an HDRA representation and two documented cognitive biases. First, the DM’s risk attitudes are reinforced by prior experiences: he becomes more risk averse after suffering a disappointment and less risk averse after being elated. Second, the DM displays a primacy effect: early outcomes have the strongest effect on risk attitude. Furthermore, the DM lowers his threshold for elation after a disappointing outcome and raises it after an elating outcome; this makes disappointment more likely after elation and vice-versa, leading to statistically reversing risk attitudes. “Gray areas†in the elation-disappointment assignment are connected to optimism and pessimism in determining endogenous reference points.

Suggested Citation

  • David Dillenberger & Kareen Rozen, 2011. "History-Dependent Risk Attitude," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-004, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:11-004
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    2. Neofytos Rodosthenous & Hongzhong Zhang, 2020. "When to sell an asset amid anxiety about drawdowns," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1422-1460, October.
    3. Dalmia, Prateik & Filiz-Ozbay, Emel, 2021. "Your success is my motivation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 49-85.
    4. Farah Said & Uzma Afzal & Ginger Turner, 2014. "Attitudes Towards Risk in the Wake of a Rare Event: Evidence from Pakistan," CREB Working papers 2-2014, Centre for Research in Economics and Business, The Lahore School of Economics, revised 2014.
    5. Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Schmalz, Martin C., 2016. "Anxiety in the face of risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 414-426.
    6. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yves Le Yaouanq, 2020. "Objective rationality foundations for (dynamic) alpha-MEU," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2244R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2021.
    7. Geoffrey C. Friesen & Noel Pavel Jeutang & Emre Unlu, 2022. "The Effect of Unsuccessful Past Repurchases on Future Repurchasing Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 716-739, January.
    8. Frick, Mira & Iijima, Ryota & Le Yaouanq, Yves, 2022. "Objective rationality foundations for (dynamic) α-MEU," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    9. Mark Browne & Verena Jaeger & Petra Steinorth, 2019. "The impact of economic conditions on individual and managerial risk taking," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 44(1), pages 27-53, March.
    10. Faruk Gul & Paulo Natenzon & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 2020. "Random Evolving Lotteries and Intrinsic Preference for Information," Working Papers 2020-71, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    11. Benjamin Keefer, 2016. "Sensitization and Extraordinary Persistence," Working Papers 2016-01, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
    12. Manel Baucells & Woonam Hwang, 2017. "A Model of Mental Accounting and Reference Price Adaptation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4201-4218, December.
    13. Gagnon-Bartsch, Tristan & Bushong, Benjamin, 2022. "Learning with misattribution of reference dependence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    14. Airaudo, Marco, 2020. "Temptation and forward-guidance," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    15. Paola Manzini & Marco Mariotti, 2015. "State dependent choice," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 45(2), pages 239-268, September.
    16. Mehmet F. Dicle & Kendra Reed, 2019. "Asymmetric return response to expected risk: policy implications," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(3), pages 345-356, June.
    17. Said, Farah & Afzal, Uzma & Turner, Ginger, 2015. "Risk taking and risk learning after a rare event: Evidence from a field experiment in Pakistan," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 167-183.
    18. Shiri Artstein-Avidan & David Dillenberger, 2010. "Dynamic Disappointment Aversion: Don't Tell Me Anything Until You Know For Sure," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    19. Mark Browne & Verena Jaeger & Petra Steinorth, 2019. "The impact of economic conditions on individual and managerial risk taking," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 44(1), pages 27-53, March.
    20. Johanna Etner & Meglena Jeleva & Olivier Renault, 2024. "Dynamic decision-making when ambiguity attitudes depend on exogenous events," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 96(2), pages 269-295, March.
    21. Andersson, Lina, 2022. "Fear and Economic Behavior," Working Papers in Economics 819, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    22. Gibson, John & McKenzie, David & Rohorua, Halahingano & Stillman, Steven, 2019. "The long-term impact of international migration on economic decision-making: Evidence from a migration lottery and lab-in-the-field experiments," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 99-115.
    23. Pruijssers, Jorien Louise & Singer, Gallia & Singer, Zvi & Tsang, Desmond, 2023. "Social influence pressures and the risk preferences of aspiring financial market professionals," Journal of Accounting Education, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    24. Neofytos Rodosthenous & Hongzhong Zhang, 2020. "When to sell an asset amid anxiety about drawdowns," Papers 2006.00282, arXiv.org.
    25. Zheng Li, 2020. "Experimental Evidence on Socioeconomic Differences in Risk‐Taking and Risk Premiums," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(313), pages 140-152, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    history-dependent risk attitude; statistically reversing risk attitudes; reinforcement effect; primacy effect; endogenous reference dependence; betweenness; optimism; pessimism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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