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Does The Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Prices Change When Inflation Targeting Is Adopted? The Peruvian Case Study Between 1994 And 2007

Author

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  • Paul Castillo
  • Luis Maertens Odria
  • Gabriel Rodríguez

    (Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract
This paper analyzes whether the exchange rate pass-through into prices changed when the inflation targeting scheme was adopted in Peru. Firstly, a small dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is simulated, which shows that adopting this scheme induces an increase in exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, applying the theory of the currency denomination of international trade, it is demonstrated that increased exchange rate volatility reduces the share of firms that set their prices in foreign currency (dollars). Given that the pass-though has a direct relationship with this share, it is shown that adopting inflation targeting generates a pass-through contraction. Secondly, we empirically test whether the Peruvian Central Bank’s decision to adopt inflation targeting in January 2002 actually had an effect on the pass-through estimating a time-varying vector autoregressive model which allows for an asymmetrical estimation of the pass-through. It provides parameters for both the pre and post inflation targeting regimes based on the assumption that the transition from one regime to the other is smooth. An analysis of the generalized impulse response functions reveals that the decision to adopt inflation targeting significantly decreased the exchange rate pass-throughs into import, producer, and consumer prices. The results are consistent with economic theory and are robust to the specification of parameters of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Castillo & Luis Maertens Odria & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2011. "Does The Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Prices Change When Inflation Targeting Is Adopted? The Peruvian Case Study Between 1994 And 2007," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2011-314, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00314
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    Cited by:

    1. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Jambaldorj Bolortuya, 2019. "Inflation Targeting and the Pass-through Effect in Mongolia," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(2), pages 57-71, June.
    2. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Winkelried, Diego, 2012. "Traspaso del tipo de cambio y metas de inflación en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 9-24.
    4. Alex Contreras & Zenón Quispe & Fernando Regalado, 2017. "Real dollarization and monetary policy in Peru," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2023. "Nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through: The role of inflation expectations," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 86-101.
    6. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2017. "Oil price–inflation pass-through in Romania during the inflation targeting regime," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(15), pages 1527-1542, March.
    7. Rodriguez, Gabriel & Castillo B., Paul & Calero, Roberto & Salcedo Cisneros, Rodrigo & Ataurima Arellano, Miguel, 2024. "Evolution of the exchange rate pass-through into prices in Peru: An empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Castellares, Renzo & Toma, Hiroshi, 2020. "Effects of a mandatory local currency pricing law on the exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    9. Fernando J. Pérez Forero & Marco Vega, 2016. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through: Evidence from Nonlinear SVARs," Working Papers 63, Peruvian Economic Association.
    10. Helder Mendonça & Felipe Tostes, 2015. "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Credibility on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 787-816, September.
    11. Renzo Rossini & Marco Vega & Zenón Quispe & Fernando Perez, 2016. "Inflation expectations and dollarisation in Peru," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 275-289, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Pérez, Fernando & Vega, Marco, 2015. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from Peru," Working Papers 2015-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    13. Felipe Santos Tostes & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça, 2016. "Credibility On Pass-Through In Brazil," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 022, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Tunç, Cengiz, 2017. "A Survey on Exchange Rate Pass through in Emerging Markets," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 205-233, July-Sept.
    15. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2019. "Inflation targeting and the pass-through effect: The case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 92988, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ismailov, Shakhzod & Kakinaka, Makoto & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2016. "Choice of inflation targeting: Some international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 350-369.
    17. Oluwasheyi Oladipo, 2017. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: evidence from South Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(5), pages 1-11, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting/exchange rate pass-through into prices/ TV-VAR models;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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