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Identifying behavioral responses to tax reforms: new insights and a new approach

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  • Katrine Marie Jakobsen
  • Jakob Egholt Søgaard
Abstract
We revisit the identification of behavioral responses to tax reforms and develop a new approach for graphical validation and representation of treatment effects. We show that the standard estimation strategy relies on an assumption of constant trend differentials. In the context of income taxation, this implies that differences in income trends across the income distribution should remain constant in the absence of tax reforms. Similar to pre-trend validation of differences-in-differences studies, we can validate this assumption by comparing the evolution of income in untreated parts of the income distribution. We illustrate our new approach by studying several tax reforms in Denmark.

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  • Katrine Marie Jakobsen & Jakob Egholt Søgaard, 2022. "Identifying behavioral responses to tax reforms: new insights and a new approach," Economics Series Working Papers 978, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:978
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    2. Henrik Kleven & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Kristian Larsen & Jakob Egholt Søgaard, 2023. "Micro vs Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: The Role of Dynamic Returns to Effort," NBER Working Papers 31549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Roberto Iacono & Bard Smedsvik, 2023. "Behavioral responses to wealth taxation: evidence from a Norwegian reform," World Inequality Lab Working Papers halshs-04423923, HAL.
    4. Marè, M.; & Porcelli, F.; & Vidoli, F.;, 2024. "Does private supply drive personal health choices? A spatial approach of health tax detractions at municipal level," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 24/03, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    5. Maria Jouste & Tina Kaidu Barugahara & Joseph Okello Ayo & Jukka Pirttilä & Pia Rattenhuber, 2023. "Taxpayer response to greater progressivity: Evidence from personal income tax reform in Uganda," Working Papers 13, Finnish Centre of Excellence in Tax Systems Research.
    6. Chan, Marc K. & Morris, Todd & Polidano, Cain & Vu, Ha, 2022. "Income and saving responses to tax incentives for private retirement savings," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    7. Sigaard, Hans Schytte, 2023. "Estimating labor supply responses to Danish tax reforms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).

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    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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