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Are Volatility Expectations Characterized By Regime Shifts? Evidence From Implied Volatility Indices

Author

Listed:
  • Kazuhiko Nishina

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University, Japan)

  • Nabil Maghrebi

    (Graduate School of Economics, Wakayama University, Japan)

  • Mark J. Holmes

    (Waikato University, New Zealand)

Abstract
This paper examines nonlinearities in the dynamics of volatility expectations using benchmarks of implied volatility for the US and Japanese markets. The evidence from Markov regime-switching models suggests that volatility expectations are likely to be governed by regimes featuring a long memory process and significant leverage effects. Market volatility is expected to increase in bear periods and decrease in bull periods. Leverage effects constitute thus an important source of nonlinearities in volatility expectations. There is no evidence of long swings associated with financial crises, which do not have the potential of shifting volatility expectations from one regime to another for long protracted periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazuhiko Nishina & Nabil Maghrebi & Mark J. Holmes, 2006. "Are Volatility Expectations Characterized By Regime Shifts? Evidence From Implied Volatility Indices," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 06-20, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:0620
    as

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    File URL: http://www2.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/global/dp/0620.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. J. Cuñado & L. Gil-Alana & F. Gracia, 2009. "US stock market volatility persistence: evidence before and after the burst of the IT bubble," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 233-252, October.
    2. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Shittu, Olanrewaju I. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2014. "On the persistence and volatility in European, American and Asian stocks bull and bear markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 149-162.
    3. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Shittu, Olanrewaju I. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2018. "Market efficiency of Baltic stock markets: A fractional integration approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 511(C), pages 251-262.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov Regime Switching; Implied Volatility Index; Nonlinear Modelling.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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