[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/t5jrx.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The “Place Of The Phillips Curve” in Macroeconometric Models: The Case of the First Federal Reserve Board’s Model (1966-1980s)

Author

Listed:
  • Rancan, Antonella
Abstract
In the article I examine how model builders from the academia and from the Federal Reserve Board confronted with the Phillips curve in the construction and subsequent modifications of the Federal Reserve, MIT and University of Pennsylvania macroeconometric model. It is argued that academic debates on Friedman’s and Phelps’ accelerationist hypothesis, and the subsequent evolution of the macroeconomics discipline, did not affect the model building agenda at the Research and Statistics Division of the Board over the 1970s and 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Rancan, Antonella, 2021. "The “Place Of The Phillips Curve” in Macroeconometric Models: The Case of the First Federal Reserve Board’s Model (1966-1980s)," OSF Preprints t5jrx, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:t5jrx
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/t5jrx
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/605e3e537ae19600deacef9c/
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/t5jrx?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Vroey Michel & Duarte Pedro Garcia, 2013. "In search of lost time: the neoclassical synthesis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 965-995, January.
    2. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2017. "Stagflation and the crossroad in macroeconomics: the struggle between structural and New Classical macroeconometrics," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17043, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Goulven Rubin, 2018. "Robert J. Gordon and the introduction of the natural rate hypothesis in the Keynesian framework," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01821825, HAL.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    5. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2015. "Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians' Response to Robert Lucas," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15059, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    6. Forder, James, 2010. "Friedman’S Nobel Lecture And The Phillips Curve Myth," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 329-348, September.
    7. Nelson Edward, 2005. "The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50, July.
    8. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2013. "The Great Inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom: Reconciling Policy Decisions and Data Outcomes," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 393-438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Okun, Arthur M, 1980. "Rational-Expectations-with-Misperceptions as a Theory of the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 817-825, November.
    10. Acosta, Juan & Cherrier, Beatrice, 2018. "The transformation of economic analysis at the Federal Reserve during the 1960s," SocArXiv vdy2z, Center for Open Science.
    11. Ellen E. Meade & Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "The Phillips curve and US monetary policy: what the FOMC transcripts tell us," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 197-216, April.
    12. Franco Modigliani & Ezio Tarantelli, 1973. "A Generalization of the Phillips Curve for a Developing Country," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 40(2), pages 203-223.
    13. André Lapidus & Jean-Sébastien Lenfant & Goulven Rubin & Hans-Michael Trautwein, 2020. "Introduction," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 815-818, November.
    14. Robert G. King, 2008. "The Phillips curve and U.S. macroeconomic policy : snapshots, 1958-1996," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 94(Fall), pages 311-359.
    15. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-96, Winter.
    16. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "Choosing the Federal Reserve Chair: Lessons from History," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 129-162, Winter.
    17. Roger Backhouse & Béatrice Cherrier, 2019. "The Ordinary Business of Macroeconometric Modeling: Working on the Fed-MIT-Penn Model, 1964–74," Post-Print halshs-02725159, HAL.
    18. Hetzel,Robert L., 2008. "The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521881326, September.
    19. Cherrier, Beatrice & Backhouse, Roger, 2018. "The ordinary business of macroeconometric modeling: working on the Fed-MIT-Penn model (1964-1974)," SocArXiv 39xkz, Center for Open Science.
    20. Brayton, Flint & Mauskopf, Eileen, 1985. "The federal reserve board MPS quarterly econometric model of the US economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 170-292, July.
    21. James L. Pierce & Jared J. Enzler, 1974. "The Effects of External Inflationary Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 5(1), pages 13-62.
    22. A. J. Tella & Peter A. Tinsley, 1968. "The labor market and potential output of the Federal Reserve-MIT econometric model: a preliminary report," Staff Studies 45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. repec:bla:econom:v:37:y:1970:i:147:p:227-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
    25. Duo Qin, 2011. "The Phillips Curve from the Perspective of the History of Econometrics," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 43(5), pages 283-308, Supplemen.
    26. Anonymous, 1966. "Economic and Social Council," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 634-645, July.
    27. Frank De Leeuw & Edward M. Gramlich, 1968. "The Federal Reserve-MIT economic model," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 11-40.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Acosta, Juan & Rancan, Antonella & Sergi, Francesco, 2023. "Multi-country modelling at the commission of the European communities: Centralised and decentralised approaches," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthieu Renault, 2018. "Edmond Malinvaud´s Criticisms of the New Classical Economics: Restoring the Nature and the Rationale of the Old Keynesians´ Opposition," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_21, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    2. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2021. "From the Stagflation to the Great Inflation: Explaining the US economy of the 1970s," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(3), pages 557-582.
    3. Hendrickson, Joshua R., 2012. "An overhaul of Federal Reserve doctrine: Nominal income and the Great Moderation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 304-317.
    4. Hendrickson, Joshua, 2010. "An Overhaul of Fed Doctrine: Nominal Income and the Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 20346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Acosta, Juan & Cherrier, Beatrice, 2021. "The Transformation Of Economic Analysis At The Board Of Governors Of The Federal Reserve System During The 1960s," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 323-349, September.
    6. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 2013. "Bretton Woods and the Great Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 449-489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    8. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2016. "The New Classical Explanation of the Stagflation: A Psychological Way of Thinking," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16018, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    9. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2015. "Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians' Response to Robert Lucas," Post-Print halshs-01179114, HAL.
    10. Ricardo Reis, 2021. "Losing the Inflation Anchors," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 307-379.
    11. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2013. "The Great Inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom: Reconciling Policy Decisions and Data Outcomes," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 393-438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Julio J. Rotemberg, 2013. "Shifts in US Federal Reserve Goals and Tactics for Monetary Policy: A Role for Penitence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 65-86, Fall.
    13. Charles L. Weise, 2012. "Political Pressures on Monetary Policy during the US Great Inflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 33-64, April.
    14. Robert L. Hetzel, 2008. "What is the monetary standard, or, how did the Volcker-Greenspan FOMCs tame inflation?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 94(Spr), pages 147-171.
    15. Owen F. Humpage & Sanchita Mukherjee, 2013. "Even keel and the Great Inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    16. Robert G. King, 2008. "The Phillips curve and U.S. macroeconomic policy : snapshots, 1958-1996," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 94(Fall), pages 311-359.
    17. Edward Nelson, 2022. "How Did It Happen?: The Great Inflation of the 1970s and Lessons for Today," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-037, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Ignazio Visco, 2005. "From theory to practice in macroeconomic models: post-Keynesian eclecticism," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 67-90.
    19. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Pinzón-Fuchs, Erich & Sergi, Francesco & Renault, Matthieu, 2019. "Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Replies," OSF Preprints qxh46, Center for Open Science.
    20. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2017. "Stagflation and the crossroad in macroeconomics: the struggle between structural and New Classical macroeconometrics," Post-Print halshs-01625188, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:t5jrx. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.