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Challenges to international trade and the global economy: Recovery from COVID-19 and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Christine Arriola
  • Charles Cadestin
  • Przemyslaw Kowalski
  • Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto
  • Sébastien Miroudot
  • Frank van Tongeren
Abstract
Amidst the recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has resulted in new challenges to the global economy and to international trade. This report relies on detailed trade data to assess the impact of these two overlapping shocks on international trade and supply chains. In February 2022, global trade was approaching pre-Covid levels in absolute terms, but with a different product and geographical composition resulting in a continued sense of tension in the trading system. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has added a new dimension of challenges as it has led to deliberate radical interruptions of trade linkages between Russia, Ukraine and many industrialised economies, with significant repercussions on prices of key commodities in the energy and agricultural sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Christine Arriola & Charles Cadestin & Przemyslaw Kowalski & Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto & Sébastien Miroudot & Frank van Tongeren, 2023. "Challenges to international trade and the global economy: Recovery from COVID-19 and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine," OECD Trade Policy Papers 265, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:traaab:265-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5c561274-en
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kayani, Umar & Hasnaoui, Amir & Khan, Maaz & Zahoor, Nadia & Nawaz, Farrukh, 2024. "Analyzing fossil fuel commodities' return spillovers during the Russia and Ukraine crisis in the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Julien Champagne & Christopher Hajzler & Dmitry Matveev & Harlee Melinchuk & Antoine Poulin-Moore & Kemal Ozhan & Youngmin Park & Temel Taskin, 2023. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-6, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    AMNE; General Equilibrium Model; ICIO analysis; Oil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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