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Efficiency and risks in global value chains in the context of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Christine Arriola
  • Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi
  • Seung-Hee Koh
  • Przemyslaw Kowalski
  • Elena Rusticelli
  • Frank van Tongeren
Abstract
The COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting disruptions in supply chains of some manufacturing and medical products have renewed the debate on costs and benefits of globalisation and, particularly, on risks associated with international fragmentation of production in global value chains (GVCs). While GVCs helped addressing supply shortages in several cases already during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of the policy debate has concentrated on whether the gains from expanding international specialisation in GVCs are worth the associated risks of transmission of shocks and even whether governments should use policy tools to ‘re-localise’ GVCs. But re-localising may also mean less diversification and thereby limit the scope for cushioning shocks. This paper builds on on-going OECD analysis and aims at providing empirical evidence to inform and guide discussion on these questions. First, it reviews briefly the key issues and lessons learnt from the past, and identifies the main features of world trade and GVC participation that influence exposures to risks in supply chains. Subsequently, it presents key results of a set of economic model simulations conducted using the OECD’s computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model METRO to shed light on the consequences of a stylised re-localisation policy scenario. In this scenario, countries are less exposed to foreign shocks, but they are also less efficient and less able to cushion shocks through trade. Quantitatively, the latter effect tends to dominate: re-localising GVCs would make the economy in most countries both less efficient and less stable. The economic case for policy-induced reshoring of GVCs is therefore weak. There is nevertheless scope for governments to join efforts with businesses to improve risk preparedness.

Suggested Citation

  • Christine Arriola & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Seung-Hee Koh & Przemyslaw Kowalski & Elena Rusticelli & Frank van Tongeren, 2020. "Efficiency and risks in global value chains in the context of COVID-19," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1637, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1637-en
    DOI: 10.1787/3e4b7ecf-en
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Firgo & Fabian Gabelberger & Andreas Reinstaller & Yvonne Wolfmayr, 2024. "Assessing Regional Production Potential to Strengthen the Security of Supply in Strategic Products," WIFO Working Papers 670, WIFO.
    2. Cigna, Simone & Gunnella, Vanessa & Quaglietti, Lucia, 2022. "Global value chains: measurement, trends and drivers," Occasional Paper Series 289, European Central Bank.
    3. Daragh Clancy & Donal Smith & Vilém Valenta, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Reorientation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 151-191, April.
    4. Nenci, Silvia & Fusacchia, Ilaria & Giunta, Anna & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Pietrobelli, Carlo, 2022. "Mapping global value chain participation and positioning in agriculture and food: stylised facts, empirical evidence and critical issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 11(2), July.
    5. Auboina, Marc & Borino, Floriana, 2022. "Applying import-adjustmed demand methodology to trade analysis during the COVID-19 crisis: What do we learn?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2022-8, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    6. D. Dessì & R. Paci, 2023. "The impact of Global Value Chains participation on countries' productivity," Working Paper CRENoS 202305, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    7. INOUE Hiroyasu & MURASE Yohsuke & TODO Yasuyuki, 2022. "Lockdowns Require Geographic Coordination because of the Propagation of Economic Effects through Supply Chains," Discussion papers 22076, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Roberto Roson & Camille Van der Vorst, 2022. "General Equilibrium Analyses of COVID-19 Impacts and Policies: An Historical Perspective," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Economics of COVID-19, volume 127, pages 57-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Ventsislavova Georgieva, Daniela, 2024. "Влияние На Глобалните Вериги За Добавяне На Стойност Върху Иновационния Потенциал На Предприятията И Регионите [Impact of global value chains on the innovation potential of enterprises and regions]," MPRA Paper 122129, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2024.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    diversification; global value chains; relocalisation; shocks; trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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