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Walking the tightrope: avoiding a lockdown while containing the virus

Author

Listed:
  • Balázs Égert
  • Yvan Guillemette
  • Fabrice Murtin
  • David Turner
Abstract
Empirical work described in this paper explains the daily evolution of the reproduction rate, R, and mobility for a large sample of countries, in terms of containment and public health policies. This is with a view to providing insight into the appropriate policy stance as countries prepare for a potentially protracted period characterised by new infection waves. While a comprehensive package of containment measures may be necessary when the virus is widespread and can have a large effect on reducing R, they also have effect on mobility and, by extension, economic activity. A wide-ranging package of public health policies – with an emphasis on comprehensive testing, tracing and isolation, but also including mask-wearing and policies directed at vulnerable groups, especially those in care homes – offer the best approach to avoiding a full lockdown while containing the spread of the virus. Such policies may, however, need to be complemented by selective containment measures (such as restricting large public events and international travel or localised lockdowns) both to contain local outbreaks and because implementing some of the recommended public health policies may be difficult to achieve or have unacceptable social costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Égert & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner, 2020. "Walking the tightrope: avoiding a lockdown while containing the virus," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1633, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1633-en
    DOI: 10.1787/9cc22d8c-en
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124130, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    2. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124587, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    3. James H. Stock, 2020. "Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus," NBER Working Papers 26902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face Masks Considerably Reduce COVID-19 Cases in Germany: A Synthetic Control Method Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 13319, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Regina Pleninger & Sina Streicher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2022. "Do COVID-19 containment measures work? Evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Cukierman, Alex, 2021. "Effectiveness of collective action against the pandemic: Is there a difference between democratic and authoritarian regimes?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Gabriele Ciminelli & Sílvia Garcia‐Mandicó, 2022. "When and how do business shutdowns work? Evidence from Italy's first COVID‐19 wave," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(9), pages 1823-1843, September.
    4. Steven J. Davis & Dingqian Liu & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022. "Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 32-67, March.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Alex Cukierman & Yothin Jinjarak & Weining Xin, 2023. "International Evidence on Vaccines and the Mortality to Infections Ratio in the Pre-Omicron Era," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 385-405, November.
    6. Ana Suárez à lvarez & Ana Jesús López Menéndez, 2021. "Approaching The Impact Of Covid-19 From An Inequality Of Opportunity Perspective: An Analysis Of European Countries," Working Papers 595, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    7. Mikel Erkoreka & Josu Hernando‐Pérez, 2023. "Decentralization: A handicap in fighting the COVID‐19 pandemic? The response of the regional governments in Spain," Public Administration & Development, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2), pages 129-140, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; lockdown; mobility; non-pharmaceutical interventions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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