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The Rebound Effect in Road Transport: A Meta-analysis of Empirical Studies

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandros Dimitropoulos

    (OECD)

  • Walid Oueslati

    (OECD)

  • Christina Sintek

    (OECD)

Abstract
The rebound effect is the phenomenon underlying the disproportionality between energy efficiency improvements and observed energy savings. This paper presents a meta-analysis of 76 primary studies and 1138 estimates of the direct rebound effect in road transport to synthesise past work and inform ongoing discussions about the determinants and magnitude of the rebound effect. The magnitude of rebound effect estimates varies with the time horizon considered. On average, the direct rebound effect is around 12% in the short run and 32% in the long run. Indirect and macroeconomic effects would come on top of these estimates. Heterogeneity in rebound effect estimates can mainly be explained by variation in the time horizon considered, the elasticity measure used and the econometric approach employed in primary studies, and by macro-level economic factors, such as real income and gasoline prices. In addition to identifying the factors responsible for the variation in rebound effect estimates, the meta-regression model developed in this paper can serve as a relevant tool to assist policy analysis in contexts where rebound effect estimates are missing. L'effet de rebond est un phénomène qui sous-tend la disproportionnalité entre les améliorations de l'efficacité énergétique et les économies d'énergie observées. Ce papier présente une méta-analyse de 76 études primaires et 1138 estimations de l'effet de rebond direct dans le transport routier pour synthétiser les travaux passés et informer les discussions en cours sur les déterminants et l'ampleur de l'effet de rebond. L'ampleur des estimations de l'effet de rebond varie selon l'horizon temporel considéré. En moyenne, l'effet de rebond est d'environ 12% à court terme et 32% à long terme. Les effets indirects et macroéconomiques viendront s'ajouter à ces estimations. L'hétérogénéité des estimations de l'effet de rebond s'explique principalement par la variation de l'horizon temporel considéré, la mesure d'élasticité utilisée et l'approche économétrique déployée dans les études primaires, ainsi que par des facteurs macroéconomiques tels que le revenu réel et les prix de l'essence. En plus de l'identification des facteurs responsables de la variation des estimations des effets de rebond, la méta-régression, développée dans ce papier, fournit un outil pertinent pour analyser les politiques en vigueurs dans les contextes où les estimations de l'effet rebond sont manquantes.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandros Dimitropoulos & Walid Oueslati & Christina Sintek, 2016. "The Rebound Effect in Road Transport: A Meta-analysis of Empirical Studies," OECD Environment Working Papers 113, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:envaaa:113-en
    DOI: 10.1787/8516ab3a-en
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    Keywords

    fuel efficiency; gasoline price; meta-analysis; Rebound effect; road transport;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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