[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/npf/wpaper/19-248.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Examining the trade-off between price and financial stability in India

Author

Listed:
  • Patnaik, Ila

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Mittal, Shalini

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Pandey, Radhika

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract
In recent years, many emerging economies including India have adopted inflation targeting framework. Post the global financial crisis, there is a growing debate on whether monetary policy should target financial stability. Using India as a case study, we present an empirical approach to assess whether monetary policy can target financial stability. This is done by examining the trade-off between price and financial stability for India. Using correlation between price and financial cycles, we find that a trade-off exists between price and financial stability. Our finding is robust to a series of robustness checks. Our study has implications for the conduct of monetary policy in emerging economies. Presence of a trade-off may constrain the ability of a central bank in emerging economies to target financial stability with monetary policy instrument.

Suggested Citation

  • Patnaik, Ila & Mittal, Shalini & Pandey, Radhika, 2019. "Examining the trade-off between price and financial stability in India," Working Papers 19/248, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:19/248
    Note: Working Paper 248, 2019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nipfp.org.in/media/medialibrary/2019/01/WP_248_3QaIR8x.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
    3. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2007. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 121-170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p4oqi4ibn is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Andrea Ajello & Thomas Laubach & David López-Salido & Taisuke Nakata, 2019. "Financial Stability and Optimal Interest Rate Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 279-326, March.
    7. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
    8. Bailey, Rishab & Parsheera, Smriti & Rehman, Faiza & Sane, Renuka, 2018. "Disclosures in privacy policies: Does "notice and consent" work?," Working Papers 18/246, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    9. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    10. Lepers, Etienne & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2020. "Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    12. Shabana Khan & Jyoti L. Mishra & Kuna-hui Elaine Lin & Emma E. H. Doyle, 2017. "Rethinking communication in risk interpretation and action," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1709-1726, September.
    13. Rachel Male, 2011. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterizing the Cycle," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 20-39, May.
    14. Magdalena Petrovska & Elena Mucheva Mihajlovska, 2013. "Measures of Financial Stability in Macedonia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 2(3), pages 85-110.
    15. Masaaki Shirakawa, 2013. "Central Banking: Before, During, and After the Crisis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 373-387, January.
    16. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    17. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Hallin, Marc & Forni, Mario & Altissimo, Filippo & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Veronese, Giovanni & Bassanetti, Antonio, 2001. "EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Soyoung Kim & Aaron Mehrotra, 2015. "Managing price and financial stability objectives - what can we learn from the Asia-Pacific region?," BIS Working Papers 533, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    20. Dirk Tasche, 2006. "Validation of internal rating systems and PD estimates," Papers physics/0606071, arXiv.org.
    21. James D. Hamilton, 2017. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," NBER Working Papers 23429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Blaise Gadanecz & Kaushik Jayaram, 2009. "Measures of financial stability - a review," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring financial innovation and its impact", Basel, 26-27 August 2008, volume 31, pages 365-380, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Ranjan K. Mohanty & N. R. Bhanumurthy, 2019. "Analyzing the Dynamic Relationships between Physical Infrastructure, Financial Development and Economic Growth in India," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 381-403, December.
    24. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    25. Bank for International Settlements, 2001. "Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 08.
    26. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
    27. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    30. Janet L. Yellen, 2013. "Panel Discussion on \"Monetary Policy: Many Targets, Many Instruments. Where Do We Stand?\" : a speech at the \"Rethinking Macro Policy II,\" a conference sponsored by the Internat," Speech 622, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. Jean-Claude Trichet, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures: Principles-Conditions-Raison d’etre," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 229-250, January.
    32. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    33. M S Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2001. "What determines inflation in emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 1-38, Bank for International Settlements.
    34. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2002. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 521-538, October.
    35. Mr. Nicolas R Blancher & Ms. Srobona Mitra & Mrs. Hanan Morsy & Mr. Akira Otani & Tiago Severo & Ms. Laura Valderrama, 2013. "Systemic Risk Monitoring ("SysMo") Toolkit—A User Guide," IMF Working Papers 2013/168, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    37. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    38. Loretta J. Mester, 2016. "Five Points About Monetary Policy and Financial Stability (06-04-2016) Sveriges Riksbank Conference on Rethinking the Central Bank’s Mandate, Stockholm, Sweden," Speech 72, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    39. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Rishab Bailey & Smriti Parsheera & Faiza Rahman & Renuka Sane, 2019. "Disclosures in Privacy Policies: Does “Notice and Consent†Work?," Working Papers id:12966, eSocialSciences.
    41. Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 436, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    42. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    43. Armand Fouejieu,, 2017. "Inflation targeting and financial stability in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 51-70.
    44. Claudio Borio & William English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 1-59, Bank for International Settlements.
    45. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    46. Mirna Dumičić, 2016. "Financial Stability Indicators – The Case of Croatia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 5(1), pages 113-140.
    47. repec:cbk:journl:v:2:y:2013:i:2:p:85-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    49. Datta, Pratik, 2018. "Value Destruction and Wealth Transfer under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016," Working Papers 18/247, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    50. Serge Jeanneau, 2014. "Financial stability objectives and arrangements - what's new?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The role of central banks in macroeconomic and financial stability, volume 76, pages 47-58, Bank for International Settlements.
    51. Nicoletti, Giulio & Wacker, Konstantin M. & Lodge, David, 2014. "Measuring financial conditions in major non-euro area economies," Working Paper Series 1743, European Central Bank.
    52. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
    53. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    54. Stijn Claessens & Swati R. Ghosh, 2016. "Business and financial cycles in emerging markets: lessons for macroprudential policies," Chapters, in: Dongsoo Kang & Andrew Mason (ed.), Macroprudential Regulation of International Finance, chapter 3, pages 39-80, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    55. Bank for International Settlements, 2014. "The role of central banks in macroeconomic and financial stability," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 76.
    56. Peter Lindner & Sung Eun Jung, 2014. "Corporate Vulnerabilities in India and Banks' Loan Performance," IMF Working Papers 2014/232, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Akhmad Syakir Kurnia & Syahid Izzulhaq & Johan Beni Maharda & Agung Kunaedi, 2021. "Inflation and Financial Stability Trade‐off: Role of Monetary Policy Credibility and Fiscal Cyclicality," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(1), pages 31-53, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jorge Mario Uribe & Stephanía Mosquera, 2016. "A comparative analysis of stock market cycles," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 241-261, September.
    2. Silvana Bartoletto & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Paolo Piselli, 2015. "Business Cycles, Credit Cycles and Bank Holdings of Sovereign Bonds: Historical Evidence for Italy 1861-2013," CESifo Working Paper Series 5318, CESifo.
    3. Amat Adarov, 2022. "Financial cycles around the world," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3163-3201, July.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    5. Taheri, Abouzar & Nessabian, Shahriyar & Moghaddasi, Reza & Arbabi, Farzin & Damankeshideh, Marjan, 2020. "Business Cycles in Some Selected Oil Producing Countries: Iran versus Three OECD Members," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 27(1).
    6. Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2022. "Measuring financial cycles: Empirical evidence for Germany, United Kingdom and United States of America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-630.
    7. Bartoletto, Silvana & Chiarini, Bruno & Marzano, Elisabetta & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "Business cycles, credit cycles, and asymmetric effects of credit fluctuations: Evidence from Italy for the period of 1861–2013," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Pontines, Victor, 2017. "The financial cycles in four East Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-66.
    9. Sumru Altug & Bilin Neyapti & Mustafa Emin, 2012. "Institutions and Business Cycles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 347-366, December.
    10. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
    11. Borsi, Mihály Tamás, 2018. "Credit contractions and unemployment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 573-593.
    12. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2019. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 568-591.
    13. Schüler, Yves S. & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Hiebert, Paul, 2017. "Coherent financial cycles for G-7 countries: Why extending credit can be an asset," ESRB Working Paper Series 43, European Systemic Risk Board.
    14. Borsi, Mihály Tamás, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers across the credit cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 135-151.
    15. Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2012. "Stylized Facts for Business Cycles in Turkey," Working Papers 1202, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    16. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    17. Juergen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional and Sectoral Business Cycles - Key Features for the Austrian economy," EcoMod2012 4074, EcoMod.
    18. Amat Adarov, 2023. "Financial cycles in Europe: dynamics, synchronicity and implications for business cycles and macroeconomic imbalances," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 551-583, May.
    19. Mr. Paul Cashin, 2004. "Caribbean Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2004/136, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Davor Kunovac & Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2018. "Financial cycles in euro area economies: a cross-country perspective," Working Papers 55, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:19/248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: S.Siva Chidambaram (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nipfp.org.in .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.