[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nev/wpaper/wp201407.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change and Space Heating Energy Demand: A Review of the Literature

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Ranson
  • Lauren Morris
  • Alex Kats-Rubin
Abstract
This paper reviews recent evidence on the potential impacts of climate change on energy demand for space heating in residential and commercial buildings. We cover two main topics. First, we review empirical studies of the historical relationship between temperature and energy use for heating and cooling. These studies show consistent evidence of a U-shaped relationship between temperature and energy demand, in which energy use for heating is greatest at very low temperatures, and energy use for cooling is greatest at very high temperatures. The temperature at which energy use is minimized varies across geography and time periods, but in most studies is between 53°F and 72°F (12°C and 22°C). Second, we review studies that estimate how climate change will affect future energy use for space heating and cooling. Most studies predict that climate change will result in reductions in demand for heating and increases in demand for cooling. Although the sign of the net global effect depends on the time frame and climate change scenario, a very robust conclusion is that there is considerable variation across geographies, with the largest magnitude effects predicted for countries that currently have either very low or very high average temperatures. Overall, the results summarized in this paper will be useful for understanding the potential magnitude of the benefits of climate-related reductions in space heating, and for improving the damage functions used in integrated assessment models of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Ranson & Lauren Morris & Alex Kats-Rubin, 2014. "Climate Change and Space Heating Energy Demand: A Review of the Literature," NCEE Working Paper Series 201407, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Dec 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:nev:wpaper:wp201407
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.epa.gov/environmental-economics/working-paper-climate-change-and-space-heating-energy-demand-review
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mourshed, Monjur, 2011. "The impact of the projected changes in temperature on heating and cooling requirements in buildings in Dhaka, Bangladesh," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3737-3746.
    2. Mansur, Erin T. & Mendelsohn, Robert & Morrison, Wendy, 2008. "Climate change adaptation: A study of fuel choice and consumption in the US energy sector," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 175-193, March.
    3. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
    4. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2008. "The non-linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in Europe: A threshold panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2705-2721, September.
    5. Donald H. Rosenthal & Howard K. Gruenspecht & Emily A. Moran, 1995. "Effects of Global Warming on Energy Use for Space Heating and Cooling in the United States," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 77-96.
    6. Considine, Timothy J., 2000. "The impacts of weather variations on energy demand and carbon emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 295-314, October.
    7. Maximilian Auffhammer & Anin Aroonruengsawat, 2011. "Simulating the impacts of climate change, prices and population on California’s residential electricity consumption," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 191-210, December.
    8. Robert S. Pindyck, 2013. "Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 860-872, September.
    9. Paul, Anthony & Myers, Erica & Palmer, Karen, 2009. "A Partial Adjustment Model of U.S. Electricity Demand by Region, Season, and Sector," RFF Working Paper Series dp-08-50, Resources for the Future.
    10. Vaage, Kjell, 2000. "Heating technology and energy use: a discrete/continuous choice approach to Norwegian household energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 649-666, December.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/8180 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Psiloglou, B.E. & Giannakopoulos, C. & Majithia, S. & Petrakis, M., 2009. "Factors affecting electricity demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A comparative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1855-1863.
    13. Bigano, Andrea & Bosello, Francesco & Marano, Giuseppe, 2006. "Energy Demand and Temperature: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," International Energy Markets Working Papers 12117, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    14. David Albouy & Walter Graf & Ryan Kellogg & Hendrik Wolff, 2010. "Aversion to Extreme Temperatures, Climate Change, and Quality of Life," Working Papers UWEC-2011-03, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    15. Hekkenberg, M. & Moll, H.C. & Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot, 2009. "Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1797-1806.
    16. Espey, James A. & Espey, Molly, 2004. "Turning on the Lights: A Meta-Analysis of Residential Electricity Demand Elasticities," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 65-81, April.
    17. Dora L. Costa & Matthew E. Kahn, 2010. "Why Has California's Residential Electricity Consumption Been So Flat since the 1980s?: A Microeconometric Approach," NBER Working Papers 15978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Bhattacharya, J. & DeLeire, T. & Haider, S. & Currie, J., 2003. "Heat or Eat? Cold-Weather Shocks and Nutrition in Poor American Families," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 93(7), pages 1149-1154.
    19. Olonscheck, Mady & Holsten, Anne & Kropp, Jürgen P., 2011. "Heating and cooling energy demand and related emissions of the German residential building stock under climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4795-4806, September.
    20. Sivak, Michael, 2009. "Potential energy demand for cooling in the 50 largest metropolitan areas of the world: Implications for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1382-1384, April.
    21. Ruth, Matthias & Lin, Ai-Chen, 2006. "Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2820-2833, November.
    22. Gupta, Eshita, 2012. "Global warming and electricity demand in the rapidly growing city of Delhi: A semi-parametric variable coefficient approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1407-1421.
    23. Jason B. Jorgensen & Fred Joutz, 2012. "Modelling and Forecasting Residential Electricity Consumption in the U.S. Mountain Region," Working Papers 2012-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    24. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2011. "Electricity demand elasticities and temperature: Evidence from panel smooth transition regression with instrumental variable approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 896-902, September.
    25. Yee Yan, Yuk, 1998. "Climate and residential electricity consumption in Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-20.
    26. Sailor, David J. & Muñoz, J.Ricardo, 1997. "Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A.—Methodology and results for eight states," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 987-998.
    27. Michael Scott & James Dirks & Katherine Cort, 2008. "The value of energy efficiency programs for US residential and commercial buildings in a warmer world," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 307-339, May.
    28. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Mansur, Erin T., 2014. "Measuring climatic impacts on energy consumption: A review of the empirical literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 522-530.
    29. Asadoorian, Malcolm O. & Eckaus, Richard S. & Schlosser, C. Adam, 2008. "Modeling climate feedbacks to electricity demand: The case of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1577-1602, July.
    30. Enrica De Cian & Elisa Lanzi & Roberto Roson, 2013. "Seasonal temperature variations and energy demand," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 805-825, February.
    31. Mideksa, Torben K. & Kallbekken, Steffen, 2010. "The impact of climate change on the electricity market: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3579-3585, July.
    32. Yau, Y.H. & Hasbi, S., 2013. "A review of climate change impacts on commercial buildings and their technical services in the tropics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 430-441.
    33. Fung, W.Y. & Lam, K.S. & Hung, W.T. & Pang, S.W. & Lee, Y.L., 2006. "Impact of urban temperature on energy consumption of Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2623-2637.
    34. Eshita Gupta, 2012. "Global warming and electricity demand in the rapidly growing city of Delhi: A Semi-parametric variable coefficient approach," Discussion Papers 12-02, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    35. Henley, Andrew & Peirson, John, 1997. "Non-linearities in Electricity Demand and Temperature: Parametric versus Non-parametric Methods," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(1), pages 149-162, February.
    36. Richard S. J. Tol & Sebastian Petrick & Katrin Rehdanz, 2012. "The Impact of Temperature Changes on Residential Energy Use," Working Paper Series 4412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    37. Peter C. Reiss & Matthew W. White, 2005. "Household Electricity Demand, Revisited," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 853-883.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rempel, A.R. & Rempel, A.W. & McComas, S.M. & Duffey, S. & Enright, C. & Mishra, S., 2021. "Magnitude and distribution of the untapped solar space-heating resource in U.S. climates," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Halim TATLI, 2022. "Long-term price and income elasticity of residential natural gas demand in Turkey," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(630), S), pages 101-122, Spring.
    3. Fonseca, Jimeno A. & Nevat, Ido & Peters, Gareth W., 2020. "Quantifying the uncertain effects of climate change on building energy consumption across the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    4. Thonipara, Anita & Runst, Petrik & Ochsner, Christian & Bizer, Kilian, 2019. "Energy efficiency of residential buildings in the European Union – An exploratory analysis of cross-country consumption patterns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1156-1167.
    5. Eshraghi, Hadi & Rodrigo de Queiroz, Anderson & Sankarasubramanian, A. & DeCarolis, Joseph F., 2021. "Quantification of climate-induced interannual variability in residential U.S. electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Jianglong & Yang, Lisha & Long, Houyin, 2018. "Climatic impacts on energy consumption: Intensive and extensive margins," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 332-343.
    2. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Mansur, Erin T., 2014. "Measuring climatic impacts on energy consumption: A review of the empirical literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 522-530.
    3. Marilyn Brown & Matt Cox & Ben Staver & Paul Baer, 2016. "Modeling climate-driven changes in U.S. buildings energy demand," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 29-44, January.
    4. Fazeli, Reza & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Hallgrimsson, Jonas Hlynur, 2016. "Residential energy demand for space heating in the Nordic countries: Accounting for interfuel substitution," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1210-1226.
    5. Marilyn A. Brown & Matt Cox & Ben Staver & Paul Baer, 2016. "Modeling climate-driven changes in U.S. buildings energy demand," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 29-44, January.
    6. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Hongliang Zhang & Jianhong E. Mu & Bruce A. McCarl & Jialing Yu, 2022. "The impact of climate change on global energy use," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, January.
    8. Hu, Wenxuan & Scholz, Yvonne & Yeligeti, Madhura & Deng, Ying & Jochem, Patrick, 2024. "Future electricity demand for Europe: Unraveling the dynamics of the Temperature Response Function," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    9. Enrica Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2019. "Global Energy Consumption in a Warming Climate," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(2), pages 365-410, February.
    10. Wang, Yaoping & Bielicki, Jeffrey M., 2018. "Acclimation and the response of hourly electricity loads to meteorological variables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 473-485.
    11. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    12. Du, Kerui & Yu, Ying & Wei, Chu, 2020. "Climatic impact on China's residential electricity consumption: Does the income level matter?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Richard S. J. Tol & Sebastian Petrick & Katrin Rehdanz, 2012. "The Impact of Temperature Changes on Residential Energy Use," Working Paper Series 4412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    14. Harish, Santosh & Singh, Nishmeet & Tongia, Rahul, 2020. "Impact of temperature on electricity demand: Evidence from Delhi and Indian states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Psiloglou, B.E. & Giannakopoulos, C. & Majithia, S. & Petrakis, M., 2009. "Factors affecting electricity demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A comparative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1855-1863.
    16. Yongxia Ding & Wei Qu & Shuwen Niu & Man Liang & Wenli Qiang & Zhenguo Hong, 2016. "Factors Influencing the Spatial Difference in Household Energy Consumption in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-20, December.
    17. Daniel C. Steinberg & Bryan K. Mignone & Jordan Macknick & Yinong Sun & Kelly Eurek & Andrew Badger & Ben Livneh & Kristen Averyt, 2020. "Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 125-139, January.
    18. Waite, Michael & Cohen, Elliot & Torbey, Henri & Piccirilli, Michael & Tian, Yu & Modi, Vijay, 2017. "Global trends in urban electricity demands for cooling and heating," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 786-802.
    19. Ciscar, Juan-Carlos & Dowling, Paul, 2014. "Integrated assessment of climate impacts and adaptation in the energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 531-538.
    20. Petrick, Sebastian & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010. "The impact of temperature changes on residential energy consumption," Kiel Working Papers 1618, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; space heating; space cooling; energy use; integrated assessment models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nev:wpaper:wp201407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cynthia Morgan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nepgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.