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Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?

Author

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  • Channarith Meng

    (National Bank of Cambodia)

  • Roberto Leon-Gonzalez

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies; Rimini Center for Economic Analysis (RCEA, Italy))

Abstract
While earlier studies focus on credit booms in advanced and emerging market countries, this paper examines the characteristics and determinants of credit booms in developing countries. The results find that credit booms in developing countries are less likely to be associated with systemic banking crises. Rather, they are more likely to be the result of financial deepening than of dangerous buildups of financial risks; the prevention of credit booms in developing countries may thus be associated with higher opportunity costs in terms of foregone growth opportunities. Random effect probit and tobit regressions find some evidence that size of financial system and favorable macroeconomic conditions are among the determinants of credit booms. Although monetary and fiscal policies do not help in preventing credit booms in developing countries, we find that prudential regulations and supervision can play a much more effective role in preventing “bad” booms, while incurring substantially lower costs. Although “bad” booms are hard to identify ahead of time, the duration and size of booms, as well as the level of credit aggregates, appear to be useful indicators in determining them.

Suggested Citation

  • Channarith Meng & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez, 2016. "Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?," GRIPS Discussion Papers 15-22, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:15-22
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    Cited by:

    1. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2021. "What drives the duration of credit booms?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1531-1549, January.
    2. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2019. "Political and Institutional Determinants of Credit Booms," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(5), pages 1144-1178, October.
    3. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2021. "Why are credit booms sometimes sweet and sometimes sour?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3054-3074, April.
    4. Bouvatier, Vincent & El Ouardi, Sofiane, 2023. "Credit gaps as banking crisis predictors: A different tune for middle- and low-income countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2018. "Economic and political drivers of the duration of credit booms," NIPE Working Papers 15/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    6. Onkar Shivraj Swami & B. Nethaji & Jyoti Prakash Sharma, 2022. "Determining Risk Factors that Diminish Asset Quality of Indian Commercial Banks," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 372-384, April.
    7. Michael Machokoto & Daniel Gyimah & Boulis Maher Ibrahim, 2022. "The evolution of trade credit: new evidence from developed versus developing countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 857-912, October.
    8. Tony Cavoli & Sasidaran Gopalan & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2020. "Does Financial Inclusion Amplify Output Volatility in Emerging and Developing Economies?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 901-930, September.
    9. Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 965-1001, November.
    10. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Jr Mercado, 2021. "Taming the "Capital Flows-Credit Nexus": A Sectoral Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep0921, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    11. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Noel, Dennison, 2020. "The bank capital-competition-risk nexus – A global perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2020. "Riding the Wave of Credit: Are Longer Expansions Really a Bad Omen?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 729-751, September.
    13. López, Tania & Winkler, Adalbert, 2019. "Does financial inclusion mitigate credit boom-bust cycles?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 116-129.
    14. Vítor Castro & Pedro A. Cerqueira & Rodrigo Martins, 2024. "Is There a Pervasive World Real Credit Cycle?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 99-119, February.
    15. Tianbao Zhou & Zhixin Liu & Yingying Xu, 2024. "Characterizing Public Debt Cycles: Don't Ignore the Impact of Financial Cycles," Papers 2404.17412, arXiv.org.
    16. Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Determinants of the domestic credits in developing economies: The role of political risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 430-443.

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