[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/5475.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Protectionist Threats and Foreign Direct Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce A. Blonigen
  • Robert C. Feenstra
Abstract
The recent literature on quid pro quo foreign direct investment (FDI) suggests that FDI may be induced by the threat of protection, and further, that FDI may be used as an instrument to defuse a protectionist threat. This paper uses a panel data set of 4-digit SIC level observations of Japanese manufacturing FDI into the United States in the 1980s to explore these hypotheses empirically. We find strong statistical support for the hypothesis that higher threats of protection lead to greater FDI flows, and post-regression simulations find that a rise in the expected probability of protection from five to ten percent means over a 30 percent rise in next-period FDI flows for an average industry. In addition, there is evidence that non- acquisition FDI by the Japanese had success in defusing the threat of an escape clause investigation in future periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce A. Blonigen & Robert C. Feenstra, 1996. "Protectionist Threats and Foreign Direct Investment," NBER Working Papers 5475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5475
    Note: ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5475.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kogut, Bruce & Chang, Sea Jin, 1991. "Technological Capabilities and Japanese Foreign Direct Investment in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 401-413, August.
    2. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 138-160, February.
    3. Edward John Ray, 1989. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 1979-85," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policies for International Competitiveness, pages 53-84, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
    5. Wendy L Hansen & Thomas J Prusa, 2021. "Cumulation and ITC decision-making: The sum of the parts is greater than the whole," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Thomas J Prusa (ed.), Economic Effects of Antidumping, chapter 9, pages 171-194, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Kimberly Ann Elliott & Thomas O. Bayard, 1994. "Reciprocity and Retaliation in U.S. Trade Policy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 78, April.
    7. J.M. Finger & H. Keith Hall & Douglas R. Nelson, 2002. "The Political Economy of Administered Protection," Chapters, in: Institutions and Trade Policy, chapter 8, pages 81-95, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-938, July.
    9. Kar‐yiu Wong, 1989. "Optimal Threat Of Trade Restriction And Quid Pro Quo Foreign Investment," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(3), pages 277-300, November.
    10. Gene Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1994. "Foreign Investment with Endogenous Protection," NBER Working Papers 4876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Robert W. Staiger & Frank A. Wolak, 1994. "Measuring Industry-Specific Protection: Antidumping in the United States," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1994 Micr), pages 51-118.
    12. Dinopoulos, E. & Wong, K-Y., 1990. "Quid Pro Quo Foreign Investment And Policy Intervention," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 90-14, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    13. Bhagwati, Jagdish N & Dinopoulos, Elias & Wong, Kar-yiu, 1992. "Quid Pro Quo Foreign Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 186-190, May.
    14. Richard B. Freeman & James L. Medoff, 1979. "New Estimates of Private Sector Unionism in the United States," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 32(2), pages 143-174, January.
    15. Robert Z. Lawrence, 1991. "Efficient or Exclusionist: The Import Behavior of Japanese Corporate Groups," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 311-341.
    16. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    17. Azrak, Paul & Wynne, Kevin, 1995. "Protectionism and Japanese direct investment in the United States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 293-305, June.
    18. Elias Dinopoulos, 1989. "Quid Pro Quo Foreign Investment," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 145-160, July.
    19. Coughlin, Cletus C & Terza, Joseph V & Khalifah, Noor Aini, 1989. "The Determinants of Escape Clause Petitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 341-347, May.
    20. Bhagwati, Jagdish N. & Brecher, Richard A. & Dinopoulos, Elias & Srinivasan, T. N., 1987. "Quid pro quo foreign investment and welfare : A political-economy-theoretic model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 127-138, October.
    21. Moore, Michael O, 1992. "Rules or Politics? An Empirical Analysis of ITC Anti-dumping Decisions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(3), pages 449-466, July.
    22. Robert Z. Lawrence, 1993. "Japan's Low Levels of Inward Investment: The Role of Inhibitions on Acquisitions," NBER Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, pages 85-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Martin, Stephen, 1991. "Direct foreign investment in the United States," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-293, December.
    24. Swenson, Deborah L., 1994. "The impact of U.S. tax reform on foreign direct investment in the United States," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 243-266, June.
    25. Goldberger, Arthur S, 1972. "Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of Regressions Containing Unobservable Independent Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, February.
    26. Robert Baldwin & Jeffrey Steagall, 1994. "An analysis of ITC decisions in antidumping, countervailing duty and safeguard cases," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(2), pages 290-308, June.
    27. Elias Dinopoulos, 1992. "Quid Pro Quo Foreign Investment And Vers: A Nash Bargaining Approach," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 43-60, March.
    28. Salvatore, Dominick, 1987. "Import penetration, exchange rates, and protectionism in the United States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 125-141.
    29. Kenneth A. Froot, 1993. "Foreign Direct Investment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number froo93-1.
    30. Takacs, Wendy E, 1981. "Pressures for Protectionism: An Empirical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(4), pages 687-693, October.
    31. Grubaugh, Stephen G, 1987. "Determinants of Direct Foreign Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 149-152, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jae W. Chung, 1998. "Effects of U.S. Trade Remedy Law Enforcement under Uncertainty: The Case of Steel," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 151-159, July.
    2. Laixun Zhao, 1996. "The Complementarity Between Endogenous Protection And Direct Foreign Investment," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 61-72, March.
    3. Kokko, Ari & Gustavsson Tingvall, Patrik & Videnord, Josefin, 2017. "Which Antidumping Cases Reach the WTO?," Ratio Working Papers 286, The Ratio Institute.
    4. Bruce A. Blonigen & Yuka Ohno, 2019. "Endogenous Protection, Foreign Direct Investment and Protection-building Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 6, pages 205-233, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Nelson, Douglas, 2006. "The political economy of antidumping: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 554-590, September.
    6. Michael P. Leidy, 1994. "Trade Policy And Indirect Rent Seeking: A Synthesis Of Recent Work†," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 97-118, July.
    7. Michael J. Hiscox, 2004. "International Capital Mobility And Trade Politics: Capital Flows, Political Coalitions, And Lobbying," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 253-285, November.
    8. Lee, Donghyun, 2013. "New evidence on the link between exchange rates and asset-seeking acquisition FDI," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 153-158.
    9. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jee-Hyeong Park, 2004. "Dynamic Pricing in the Presence of Antidumping Policy: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 134-154, March.
    10. Tansey, Michael & Raju, Sudhakar & Stellern, Michael, 2005. "Price controls, trade protectionism and political business cycles in the U.S. steel industry," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1097-1109, December.
    11. Jozef Konings & Hylke Vandenbussche & Linda Springael, 2001. "Import Diversion under European Antidumping Policy," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 283-299, September.
    12. Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb, 2016. "Growth, Real Exchange Rates and Trade Protectionism since the Financial Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1050-1080, November.
    13. Chung, Jae W., 1999. "Insights Into Trade Protection under U.S. Trade Remedy Laws," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 375-387, May.
    14. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1994. "Foreign Investment with Endogenous Protection," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275594, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Thomas J. Prusa, 2021. "The Trade Effects of U.S. Antidumping Actions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Thomas J Prusa (ed.), Economic Effects of Antidumping, chapter 3, pages 21-43, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Laura Rovegno, 2013. "Trade protection and market power: evidence from US antidumping and countervailing duties," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(3), pages 443-476, September.
    17. Lee, Kyung-Ho & Mah, Jai S., 2003. "Institutional changes and antidumping decisions in the United States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 555-565, September.
    18. Maurizio Zanardi, 2004. "Antidumping law as a collusive device," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 95-122, February.
    19. Rajesh Chakrabarti & Barry Scholnick, 2002. "Exchange rate expectations and foreign direct investment flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(1), pages 1-21, March.
    20. Benjamin Liebman, 2004. "ITC voting behavior on sunset reviews," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(3), pages 446-475, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5475. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.