[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/3960.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

External Shocks, Politics and Private Investment: Some Theory and Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Sule Ozler
  • Dani Rodrik
Abstract
The manner in which the political system responds to external economic shocks in developing countries is a key determinant of the private investment response. We look at a simple model of political-economic equilibrium to make this intuition more precise. and develop the idea of a "political transmission mechanism." Even in the confines of this simple model, we find that ambiguities abound: domestic politics can magnify or dampen the effect of the external shock. In our empirical work. we find that a high level of urbanization magnifies the investment reduction in response to an external shock. This is consistent with the supposition that high levels of urbanization are conducive to distributive politics with pernicious economic effects. We also find that the provision of political rights is conducive to superior private investment behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Sule Ozler & Dani Rodrik, 1992. "External Shocks, Politics and Private Investment: Some Theory and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3960
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3960.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Greene & Delano Villanueva, 1991. "Private Investment in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 33-58, March.
    2. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 1992. "The Politics of 1992: Fiscal Policy and European Integration," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(4), pages 689-701.
    3. Berg, Andrew & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988. "The debt crisis structural explanations of country performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 271-306, November.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 1990. "Private Investment in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 1990/040, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Riccardo Faini & Jaime de Melo, 2015. "Adjustment, Investment and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 6, pages 137-165, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Nelson, Joan M, 1991. "Organized Labor, Politics, and Labor Market Flexibility in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 6(1), pages 37-56, January.
    7. Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1992. "Private Investment and Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Survey," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 7(1), pages 95-114, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dierk Herzer & Michael Grimm, 2012. "Does foreign aid increase private investment? Evidence from panel cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(20), pages 2537-2550, July.
    2. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 1992. "World Bank adjustment lending and economic performance in sub-Saharan Africa in the 1980s : a comparison of early adjusters, late adjusters, and nonadjusters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1001, The World Bank.
    3. A. Nurul Hossain & Syed Hasanuzzaman, 2013. "Remittances and investment nexus in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 60(4), pages 387-407, December.
    4. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Private Investment in Developing Countries: The Effects of Commodity Shocks and Uncertainty," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Matin, Kazi M. & Wasow, Bernard, 1992. "Adjustment and private investment in Kenya," Policy Research Working Paper Series 878, The World Bank.
    6. Fielding, David, 1997. "Adjustment, trade policy and investment slumps: evidence from Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 121-137, February.
    7. Gooptu, Sudarshan, 1996. "Emerging policy issues in development finance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 85-100.
    8. Ajay Chhibber & Mansoor Dailami, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and Private Investment in Developing Countries: Recent Evidence on Key Selected Issues," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Riccardo Faini & Jaime Melo (ed.), Fiscal Issues in Adjustment in Developing Countries, pages 121-150, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2007. "What Determines Private Investment? The Case of Pakistan," Finance Working Papers 22202, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. Bakare A.S, 2011. "The Determinants of Private Domestic Investment in Nigeria," Far East Journal of Psychology and Business, Far East Research Centre, vol. 4(3), pages 27-37, August.
    11. Muzurura, Joe, 2016. "Determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Zimbabwe: What factors matter?," MPRA Paper 99873, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jun 2016.
    12. Espinoza Raphael & Gamboa-Arbelaez Juliana & Sy Mouhamadou, 2024. "The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 489-527, January.
    13. Ambaye, Guesh Gebremeske & Berhanu, T. & Abera, G., 2013. "Modeling the Determinats of Domestic Private Investments in Ethiopia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Elbadawi, Ibrahim & Majd, Nader, 1992. "Fixed parity of the exchange rate and economic performance in the CFA zone : a comparative study," Policy Research Working Paper Series 830, The World Bank.
    15. Stephen S. Everhart & Mariusz A. Sumlinski, 2001. "Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries : Statistics for 1970-2000 and the Impact on Private Investment of Corruption and the Quality of Public Investment," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13989.
    16. Jansen, Karel, 1995. "The macroeconomic effects of direct foreign investment: The case of Thailand," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 193-210, February.
    17. Pastor, Manuel Jr. & Conroy, Michael E., 1995. "Distributional implications of macroeconomic policy: Theory and applications to El Salvador," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 2117-2131, December.
    18. Mr. Philip R. Gerson, 1998. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy Variables on Output Growth," IMF Working Papers 1998/001, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Pradeep Agrawal, 2015. "Can Foreign Portfolio Investment Contribute to Post-2015 Development Goals in Asia?," Southern Voice Occasional Paper 26, Southern Voice.
    20. Samwel Mwigeka, 2016. "Do Budget Deficit Crowds Out Private Investment: A Case of Tanzanian Economy," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(6), pages 183-183, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3960. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.