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Why are Wages Cyclical in the 1970's?

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  • Rebecca M. Blank
Abstract
This paper investigates cyclicality in real wages between 1969 and 1982, using 14 years of data from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics. First, it investigates the extent to which movements in and out of the labor market created apparent wage cyclicality. Second, it investigates whether cyclical movements of workers between heterogeneous wage sectors within the labor market created cyclicality. Little evidence of the first effect is found. The second effect is much more important, and cyclicality clearly occurs in the movement of workers between different labor market sectors. However, sector selection is not correlated with wage determination. Thus, individual wage change estimates of cyclicality need to control for sector location, but need not account for sector selection. The third conclusion of the paper is that cyclicality is present in real wages even within sectors over this time period, and is the result of both cyclicality in overall wage levels (cyclicality in the constant term in wage equations), as well as in the coefficients associated with particular worker characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebecca M. Blank, 1987. "Why are Wages Cyclical in the 1970's?," NBER Working Papers 2396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2396
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abowd, John M & Card, David, 1987. "Intertemporal Labor Supply and Long-term Employment Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 50-68, March.
    2. repec:bla:econom:v:47:y:1980:i:187:p:217-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert & Runkle, David, 1988. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Estimating the Impact of Heterogeneity with Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1232-1266, December.
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    8. Rebecca M. Blank, 1985. "An Analysis of Workers' Choice between Employment in the Public and Private Sectors," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 38(2), pages 211-224, January.
    9. Raisian, John, 1983. "Contracts, Job Experience, and Cyclical Labor Market Adjustments," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(2), pages 152-170, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Unemployment And Hours Of Work: The North Atlantic Divide Revisited," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 1-36, February.
    2. Arozamena, Leandro & Centeno, Mario, 2006. "Tenure, business cycle and the wage-setting process," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 401-424, February.
    3. Anger, Silke, 2011. "The cyclicality of effective wages within employer–employee matches in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 786-797.
    4. Silke Anger, 2007. "The Cyclicality of Effective Wages within Employer-Employee Matches: Evidence from German Panel Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 719, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Grace Weishi Gu & Eswar Prasad, 2018. "New Evidence on Cyclical Variation in Labor Costs in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 24266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Audra Bowlus & Haoming Liu & Chris Robinson, 2002. "Business Cycle Models, Aggregation, and Real Wage Cyclicality," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 308-335, Part.
    7. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2009. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1339-1369, September.
    8. Charles Brown & Greg J. Duncan & Frank P. Stafford, 1996. "Data Watch: The Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 155-168, Spring.
    9. James R. Hines & Hilary Hoynes & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Another Look at Whether a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats," Working Papers 833, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    10. James Hines & Hilary Hoynes & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Another Look at Whether a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats," Working Papers 833, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    11. Haoming Liu, 2003. "A cross-country comparison of the cyclicality of real wages," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 923-948, November.
    12. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2022. "Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth," Working Papers 2211, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Carrington, William J & McCue, Kristin & Pierce, Brooks, 1996. "The Role of Employer-Employee Interactions in Labor Market Cycles: Evidence from the Self-Employed," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(4), pages 571-602, October.
    14. Xin Xu & Robert Kaestner, 2010. "The Business Cycle and Health Behaviors," NBER Working Papers 15737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Xu, Xin, 2013. "The business cycle and health behaviors," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 126-136.
    16. Beth Anne Wilson, "undated". "Movements of Wages over the Business Cycle: An Intra-Firm View," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D64 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Altruism; Philanthropy; Intergenerational Transfers
    • D69 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Other

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