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Federalism, Partial Prohibition, and Cross-Border Sales: Evidence from Recreational Marijuana

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  • Benjamin Hansen
  • Keaton Miller
  • Caroline Weber
Abstract
Marijuana is partially prohibited: though banned federally, it is available to 1 in 4 U.S. adults under state statutes. We measure the size of the interstate trade generated by state-level differences in legal status with a natural experiment: Oregon allowed stores to sell marijuana for recreational use on October 1, 2015, next to Washington where stores had been selling recreational marijuana since July 2014. Using administrative data covering the universe of Washington's sales and a differences-in-discontinuities approach, we find retailers along the Oregon border experienced a 36 percent decline in sales immediately after Oregon's market opened. We investigate the home location of recent online reviewers of marijuana retailers and find similar cross-border patterns. By the end of Washington's 2018 fiscal year, our results imply that Washington had earned between $44 million and $75 million in tax revenue from cross-border shoppers. These cross-border incentives may create a “race to legalize.”

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Hansen & Keaton Miller & Caroline Weber, 2017. "Federalism, Partial Prohibition, and Cross-Border Sales: Evidence from Recreational Marijuana," NBER Working Papers 23762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23762
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    4. Carrieri, Vincenzo & Madio, Leonardo & Principe, Francesco, 2020. "Do-It-Yourself medicine? The impact of light cannabis liberalization on prescription drugs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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    6. Michelle Sovinsky & Liana Jacobi & Alessandra Allocca & Tao Sun, 2023. "More than Joints: Multi-Substance Use, Choice Limitations, and Policy Implications," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 487, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    7. Davide Fortin, 2024. "Legalizing cannabis in Colorado: Displacement or market expansion?," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 03, Stata Users Group.
    8. Petrova, Olga & Gray, Natallia, 2021. "The effects of medical marijuana laws on birth outcomes: Evidence from early adopting U.S. states," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 68-82.
    9. Mitre-Becerril, David & MacDonald, John M., 2024. "Does urban development influence crime? Evidence from Philadelphia’s new zoning regulations," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    10. Øyvind Thomassen & Howard Smith & Stephan Seiler & Pasquale Schiraldi, 2017. "Multi-category Competition and Market Power: A Model of Supermarket Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2308-2351, August.
    11. Brett Hollenbeck & Kosuke Uetake, 2021. "Taxation and market power in the legal marijuana industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(3), pages 559-595, September.
    12. Huynh, Dat & Sokolova, Anna & Tosun, Mehmet S., 2022. "Tax Elasticity of Border Sales: A Meta-Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 15525, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Christian Gunadi, 2022. "Does expanding access to cannabis affect traffic crashes? County‐level evidence from recreational marijuana dispensary sales in Colorado," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(10), pages 2244-2268, October.
    14. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis & Gebka, Bartosz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2021. "Regulatory mood-congruence and herding: Evidence from cannabis stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 842-864.
    15. Sabia, Joseph J. & Dave, Dhaval & Alotaibi, Fawaz & Rees, Daniel I., 2024. "The effects of recreational marijuana laws on drug use and crime," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    16. Anderson, D. Mark & Rees, Daniel I., 2021. "The Public Health Effects of Legalizing Marijuana," IZA Discussion Papers 14292, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Keaton Miller & Boyoung Seo, 2021. "The Effect of Cannabis Legalization on Substance Demand and Tax Revenues," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 107-145.
    18. David R. Agrawal, 2023. "Hidden Havens: State and Local Governments as Tax Havens?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10573, CESifo.
    19. Smart, Rosanna & Doremus, Jacqueline, 2023. "The kids aren’t alright: The effects of medical marijuana market size on adolescents," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    20. Fox, William F. & Hargaden, Enda Patrick & Luna, LeAnn, 2022. "Statutory incidence and sales tax compliance: Evidence from Wayfair," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

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    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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