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Incentives for Replication in Economics

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Galiani
  • Paul Gertler
  • Mauricio Romero
Abstract
Replication is a critical component of scientific credibility as it increases our confidence in the reliability of the knowledge generated by original research. Yet, replication is the exception rather than the rule in economics. In this paper, we examine why replication is so rare and propose changes to the incentives to replicate. Our study focuses on software code replication, which seeks to replicate the results in the original paper using the same data as the original study and verifying that the analysis code is correct. We analyse the effectiveness of the current model for code replication in the context of three desirable characteristics: unbiasedness, fairness and efficiency. We find substantial evidence of “overturn bias” that likely leads to many false positives in terms of “finding” or claiming mistakes in the original analysis. Overturn bias comes from the fact that replications that overturn original results are much easier to publish than those that confirm original results. In a survey of editors, almost all responded they would in principle publish a replication study that overturned the results of the original study, but only 29% responded that they would consider publishing a replication study that confirmed the original study results. We also find that most replication effort is devoted to so called important papers and that the cost of replication is high in that posited data and software are very hard to use. We outline a new model for the journals to take over replication post acceptance and prepublication that would solve the incentive problems raised in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Galiani & Paul Gertler & Mauricio Romero, 2017. "Incentives for Replication in Economics," NBER Working Papers 23576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23576
    Note: DEV TWP
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael A. Clemens, 2017. "The Meaning Of Failed Replications: A Review And Proposal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 326-342, February.
    2. James Berry & Lucas C. Coffman & Douglas Hanley & Rania Gihleb & Alistair J. Wilson, 2017. "Assessing the Rate of Replication in Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 27-31, May.
    3. Edward Miguel & Michael Kremer, 2004. "Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 159-217, January.
    4. McCullough, B. D. & McGeary, Kerry Anne & Harrison, Teresa D., 2006. "Lessons from the JMCB Archive," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1093-1107, June.
    5. Andrew C. Chang & Phillip Li, 2015. "Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say \"Usually Not\"," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-83, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin D K Wood & Rui Müller & Annette N Brown, 2018. "Push button replication: Is impact evaluation evidence for international development verifiable?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Gall, Thomas & Maniadis, Zacharias, 2019. "Evaluating solutions to the problem of false positives," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 506-515.
    3. Valérie Orozco & Christophe Bontemps & Élise Maigné & Virginie Piguet & Annie Hofstetter & Anne Marie Lacroix & Fabrice Levert & Jean-Marc Rousselle, 2017. "How to make a pie? Reproducible Research for Empirical Economics & Econometrics," Post-Print hal-01939942, HAL.
    4. Pástor, Luboš & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2019. "Liquidity Risk After 20 Years," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 8(1-2), pages 277-299, December.
    5. Grüner Sven, 2020. "Sample Size Calculation in Economic Experiments," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(6), pages 791-823, December.
    6. Brown, Annette N. & Wood, Benjamin Douglas Kuflick, 2018. "Which tests not witch hunts: A diagnostic approach for conducting replication research," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-26.
    7. Dela‐Dem Fiankor & Fabio G. Santeramo, 2023. "Revisiting the impact of per‐unit duties on agricultural export prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(3), pages 1472-1492, September.
    8. Tom Coupé & Thomas Logchies & W. Robert Reed, 2024. "Do Replications Really Receive Fewer Citations?," Working Papers in Economics 24/15, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    9. Anderson, Richard G., 2017. "Should you choose to do so...: A replication paradigm," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-79, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Gruener, Sven, 2018. "Sample size calculations in economic RCTs: following clinical studies?," SocArXiv 43zbg, Center for Open Science.
    11. Bruns, Stephan B. & König, Johannes & Stern, David I., 2019. "Replication and robustness analysis of ‘energy and economic growth in the USA: A multivariate approach’," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 100-113.
    12. Valérie Orozco & Christophe Bontemps & Elise Maigné & Virginie Piguet & Annie Hofstetter & Anne Lacroix & Fabrice Levert & Jean‐Marc Rousselle, 2020. "How To Make A Pie: Reproducible Research For Empirical Economics And Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 1134-1169, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines

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    1. How to make replication the norm (Nature 2018) in ReplicationWiki

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