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Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management under Uncertainty

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  • Allan Drazen
  • Elhanan Helpman
Abstract
Stabilization programs in open economies typically consist of two stages. In the first stage the rate of currency devaluation is reduced, but the fiscal adjustment does not eliminate the fiscal deficit which causes growth of debt and loss of reserves, making a future policy change necessary. Only later, at a second stage, is this followed by either an abandonment of exchange rate management or by a sufficiently large cut in the fiscal deficit. We study how different second-stage policy changes affect economic dynamics during the first stage. These changes include tax increases, budget cuts on traded and nontraded goods, and increases in the growth rate of money. Under certainty about the timing and nature of a switch, current account developments provide information about which policy instrument is expected to be used for stabilization. Uncertainty about the timing of a stabilization is shown to be important in explaining phenomena such as continuous reserve losses and the possibility that a policy change is accompanied by a surprise discrete devaluation rather than a run on reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan Drazen & Elhanan Helpman, 1987. "Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 2268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2268
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Allan Drazen & Elhanan Helpman, 1987. "Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 835-855.
    2. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Yuri V Sobolev, 2000. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: A Model of Financial Fragility," IMF Working Papers 2000/122, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Helpman, E. & Leiderman, L., 1991. "Exchange Rate Systems: New Perspectives," Papers 3-91, Tel Aviv.
    3. Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, December.
    4. Shigeto Kitano, 2005. "The Government's Foreign Debt in the Argentine Crisis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 368-379, August.
    5. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Laura Alfaro, 2002. "On the Political Economy of Temporary Stabilization Programs," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 133-161, July.
    7. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1989. "Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in LDCs a Review Essay," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275465, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1988. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: A Selective Survey," NBER Working Papers 2775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gottlieb, Daniel, 1990. "Inflation and Policy Response - The Israeli Case: 1970-1989," MPRA Paper 4114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Allan Drazen, 1997. "Uncertain Duration of Reform: Dynamic Implications," NBER Working Papers 5925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Willman, Alpo, 1988. "Devaluation expectations and speculative attacks on the currency," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/1988, Bank of Finland.
    13. Ms. May Y Khamis, 1996. "Credit and Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 1996/051, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Venla Sipilä, 2002. "The Russian triple crisis 1998: currency, finance and budget," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 17, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).

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