[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/22538.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The More We Die, The More We Sell? A Simple Test of the Home-Market Effect

Author

Listed:
  • Arnaud Costinot
  • Dave Donaldson
  • Margaret Kyle
  • Heidi Williams
Abstract
The home-market effect, first hypothesized by Linder (1961) and later formalized by Krugman (1980), is the idea that countries with larger demand for some products at home tend to have larger sales of the same products abroad. In this paper, we develop a simple test of the home-market effect using detailed drug sales data from the global pharmaceutical industry. The core of our empirical strategy is the observation that a country’s exogenous demographic composition can be used as a predictor of the diseases that its inhabitants are most likely to die from and, in turn, the drugs that they are most likely to demand. We find that the correlation between predicted home demand and sales abroad is positive and greater than the correlation between predicted home demand and purchases from abroad. In short, countries tend to be net sellers of the drugs that they demand the most, as predicted by Linder (1961) and Krugman (1980).

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Margaret Kyle & Heidi Williams, 2016. "The More We Die, The More We Sell? A Simple Test of the Home-Market Effect," NBER Working Papers 22538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22538
    Note: IFM ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22538.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Shea, 1993. "Do Supply Curves Slope Up?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 1-32.
    2. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2001. "The Allocation of Publicly Funded Biomedical Research," NBER Chapters, in: Medical Care Output and Productivity, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Crozet, Matthieu & Trionfetti, Federico, 2008. "Trade costs and the Home Market Effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 309-321, December.
    4. Brülhart, Marius & Trionfetti, Federico, 2009. "A test of trade theories when expenditure is home biased," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 830-845, October.
    5. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    6. Behrens, Kristian & Lamorgese, Andrea R. & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Tabuchi, Takatoshi, 2009. "Beyond the home market effect: Market size and specialization in a multi-country world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 259-265, November.
    7. Jonathan I. Dingel, 2017. "The Determinants of Quality Specialization," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(4), pages 1551-1582.
    8. Gordon H. Hanson & Chong Xiang, 2004. "The Home-Market Effect and Bilateral Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1108-1129, September.
    9. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Joshua Linn, 2004. "Market Size in Innovation: Theory and Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(3), pages 1049-1090.
    11. Davis, Donald R, 1998. "The Home Market, Trade, and Industrial Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1264-1276, December.
    12. Amiti, Mary, 1998. "Inter-industry trade in manufactures: Does country size matter?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 231-255, April.
    13. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    14. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
    15. Rolf Weder, 2003. "Comparative home-market advantage: An empirical analysis of British and American exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(2), pages 220-247, June.
    16. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2015. "The Home Market Effect and Patterns of Trade between Rich and Poor Countries," Discussion Papers 1519, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    17. Werner Antweiler & Daniel Trefler, 2002. "Increasing Returns and All That: A View from Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 93-119, March.
    18. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, April.
    19. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    20. Natalia Ramondo & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2013. "Trade, Multinational Production, and the Gains from Openness," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 273-322.
    21. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    22. Holmes, Thomas J. & Stevens, John J., 2005. "Does home market size matter for the pattern of trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 489-505, March.
    23. Keith Head & John Ries, 2001. "Increasing Returns versus National Product Differentiation as an Explanation for the Pattern of U.S.-Canada Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 858-876, September.
    24. Behrens, Kristian & Lamorgese, Andrea R. & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Tabuchi, Takatoshi, 2009. "Beyond the home market effect: Market size and specialization in a multi-country world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 259-265, November.
    25. Takuji Hara, 2003. "Innovation in the Pharmaceutical Industry," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2780.
    26. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "Decreasing Costs in International Trade and Frank Graham's Argument for Protection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1243-1268, September.
    27. Erik Lundbäck & Johan Torstensson, 1998. "Demand, comparative advantage and economic geography in international trade: Evidence from the OECD," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(2), pages 230-249, June.
    28. Thibault Fally & Ana Cecilia Fieler & Justin Caron, 2017. "Home Market Effects on Innovation," 2017 Meeting Papers 609, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    29. Federico Trionfetti, 2001. "Using home-biased demand to test trade theories," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 137(3), pages 404-426, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erhardt, Katharina, 2017. "On home market effects and firm heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 316-340.
    2. Crozet, Matthieu & Trionfetti, Federico, 2008. "Trade costs and the Home Market Effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 309-321, December.
    3. Auer, Raphael A., 2017. "Product heterogeneity, cross-country taste differences, and the growth of world trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-27.
    4. Brülhart, Marius & Trionfetti, Federico, 2009. "A test of trade theories when expenditure is home biased," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 830-845, October.
    5. Garcia Pires, Armando J., 2013. "Home market effects with endogenous costs of production," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 47-58.
    6. Takatoshi Tabuchi & Kristian Behrens & Andrea R. Lamorgese, 2004. "Testing the Home Market Effects in a Multi-country World: The Theory," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 595, Econometric Society.
    7. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2004. "The empirics of agglomeration and trade," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 59, pages 2609-2669, Elsevier.
    8. J. Suedekum, 2007. "Identifying the dynamic home market effect in a three-country model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 209-228, December.
    9. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Jung, Benjamin, 2012. "The home market effect, regional inequality, and intra-industry reallocations," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 33, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    10. Huang, Yo-Yi & Huang, Deng-Shing, 2014. "Big vs. small under free trade: Market size and size distribution of firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 175-189.
    11. Kato, Hayato & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2018. "Market size in globalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 34-60.
    12. Friederike Niepmann & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2010. "Globalisation and the Spatial Concentration of Production," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 680-709, May.
    13. Gordon H. Hanson & Chong Xiang, 2004. "The Home-Market Effect and Bilateral Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1108-1129, September.
    14. Yo-Yi Huang & Cheng-Te Lee & Deng-Shing Huang, 2014. "Home Market Effects In The Chamberlinian–Ricardian World," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(S1), pages 36-54, December.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10191 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Gabriel Felbermayr & Benjamin Jung, 2018. "Market size and TFP in the Melitz model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 869-891, September.
    17. Gabriel Felbermayr & Benjamin Jung & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2011. "Home Market Effects and the Single-Sector Melitz Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 3695, CESifo.
    18. BEHRENS, Kristian & LAMORGESE, Andrea R. & OTTAVIANO, Gianmarco I.P. & TABUCHI, Takatoshi, 2005. "Testing the ‘home market effect’ in a multi-country world," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005055, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    19. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/10191 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Toshiaki Takahashi & Hajime Takatsuka & Dao-Zhi Zeng, 2013. "Spatial inequality, globalization, and footloose capital," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 53(1), pages 213-238, May.
    21. Dao‐Zhi Zeng & Toru Kikuchi, 2009. "Home Market Effect And Trade Costs," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 60(2), pages 253-270, June.
    22. Martín Tobal, 2017. "Regulatory Entry Barriers, Rent Shifting and the Home Market Effect," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 76-97, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22538. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.