[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/22421.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Finders, Keepers?

Author

Listed:
  • Niko Jaakkola
  • Daniel Spiro
  • Arthur A. van Benthem
Abstract
Natural-resource taxation and investment exhibit cycles in a vast number of countries, driving political turmoil and power shifts. Using a rational-expectations model, we show cycles result from governments' inability to commit to future taxes and firms' inability to credibly exit a country indefinitely. A government sets a low initial tax inducing high investments, which in turn prompts it to increase taxes next period. This induces low investment thus low future taxes, and so on. We investigate which factors reinforce cycles and present ways of avoiding them, and document cycles across many countries including detailed case studies of two Latin-American countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Niko Jaakkola & Daniel Spiro & Arthur A. van Benthem, 2016. "Finders, Keepers?," NBER Working Papers 22421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22421
    Note: EEE POL
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22421.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hajzler, Christopher, 2014. "Resource-based FDI and expropriation in developing economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 124-146.
    2. Jonathan Thomas & Tim Worrall, 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment and the Risk of Expropriation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 81-108.
    3. Konrad, Kai A. & Kovenock, Dan, 2009. "Competition for FDI with vintage investment and agglomeration advantages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 230-237, November.
    4. Salvador Ortigueira, 2006. "Markov-Perfect Optimal Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 153-178, January.
    5. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Gita Gopinath, 2009. "Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(1), pages 1-31.
    6. Konrad, Kai A. & Kovenock, Dan, 2009. "Competition for FDI with vintage investment and agglomeration advantages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 230-237, November.
    7. Benhabib, Jess & Rustichini, Aldo, 1997. "Optimal Taxes without Commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 231-259, December.
    8. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
    9. Anthony J. Venables, 2016. "Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 161-184, Winter.
    10. Chari V. V. & Kehoe Patrick J., 1993. "Sustainable Plans and Debt," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 230-261, December.
    11. Catarina Reis, 2013. "Taxation without commitment," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 52(2), pages 565-588, March.
    12. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Miss Dilan Ölcer, 2013. "Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2013/153, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Julien Daubanes & Pierre Lasserre, 2011. "Optimum Commodity Taxation with a Non-Renewable Resource," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-05, CIRANO.
    14. Chang, Roberto & Hevia, Constantino & Loayza, Norman, 2018. "Privatization And Nationalization Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 331-361, March.
    15. Hassler, John & Krusell, Per & Storesletten, Kjetil & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2008. "On the optimal timing of capital taxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 692-709, May.
    16. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    17. Sergei Guriev & Konstantin Sonin & Anton Kolotilin, 2007. "Determinants of Expropriation in the Oil Sector: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data," Working Papers w0115, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    18. Cole, Harold L. & English, William B., 1991. "Expropriation and direct investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 201-227, May.
    19. William Hogan & Federico Sturzenegger (ed.), 2010. "The Natural Resources Trap: Private Investment without Public Commitment," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262013797, April.
    20. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    21. Johannes Stroebel & Arthur van Benthem, 2013. "Resource Extraction Contracts Under Threat of Expropriation: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1622-1639, December.
    22. Osmel Manzano & Francisco Monaldi, 2008. "The Political Economy of Oil Production in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2008), pages 59-103, August.
    23. Robert T. Deacon & Henning Bohn, 2000. "Ownership Risk, Investment, and the Use of Natural Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 526-549, June.
    24. Campbell, H F & Lindner, R K, 1985. "A Model of Mineral Exploration and Resource Taxation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(377), pages 146-160, March.
    25. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994. "Representative democracy and capital taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 53-70, September.
    26. Sergei Guriev & Anton Kolotilin & Konstantin Sonin, 2011. "Determinants of Nationalization in the Oil Sector: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 301-323.
    27. Opp, Marcus M., 2012. "Expropriation risk and technology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 113-129.
    28. Dolzer, Rudolf & Schreuer, Christoph, 2012. "Principles of International Investment Law," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199651801.
    29. Baldursson, Fridrik Mar & von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik M., 2018. "Natural resources and sovereign expropriation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 580-607.
    30. Paul Klein & Per Krusell & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2008. "Time-Consistent Public Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 789-808.
    31. Diderik Lund, 2009. "Rent Taxation for Nonrenewable Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 287-307, September.
    32. Christopher Hajzler, 2012. "Expropriation of foreign direct investments: sectoral patterns from 1993 to 2006," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(1), pages 119-149, April.
    33. Luis Carlos Jemio, 2008. "Booms and Collapses of the Hydro Carbons Sector in Bolivia," Development Research Working Paper Series 09/2008, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    34. Fane, G., 1987. "Neutral taxation under uncertainty," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 95-105, June.
    35. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akhtaruzzaman, M. & Berg, Nathan & Hajzler, Christopher, 2017. "Expropriation risk and FDI in developing countries: Does return of capital dominate return on capital?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 84-107.
    2. Hajzler, Christopher, 2014. "Resource-based FDI and expropriation in developing economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 124-146.
    3. Christopher Hajzler & Jonathan Rosborough, 2016. "Government Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment Under the Threat of Expropriation," Staff Working Papers 16-13, Bank of Canada.
    4. Ramin Dadasov & Carsten Hefeker & Oliver Lorz, 2017. "Natural resource extraction, corruption, and expropriation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(4), pages 809-832, November.
    5. Ramin Dadasov & Carsten Hefeker & Oliver Lorz, 2014. "Natural Resource Production, Corruption, and Expropriation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201436, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Zhigang Feng, 2015. "Time‐consistent optimal fiscal policy over the business cycle," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(1), pages 189-221, March.
    7. Chang, Roberto & Hevia, Constantino & Loayza, Norman, 2018. "Privatization And Nationalization Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 331-361, March.
    8. Arezki, Rabah & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Toscani, Frederik, 2019. "The shifting natural wealth of nations: The role of market orientation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 228-245.
    9. Restrepo-Ochoa, Diana Constanza & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2020. "The impact of forced divestments on parent company stock prices: Buy on the rumor, sell on the news?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Baldursson, Fridrik Mar & von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik M., 2018. "Natural resources and sovereign expropriation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 580-607.
    11. Restrepo, Diana & Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2012. "Political risk and corporate investment decisions," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 13114, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    12. repec:cte:wbrepe:wb142304 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Horn, Henrik & Tangerås, Thomas, 2016. "Economics and Politics of International Investment Agreements," Working Paper Series 1140, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    14. Paltseva, Elena & Toews , Gerhard & Troya-Martinez, Marta, 2022. "I’ll pay you later: Sustaining Relationships under the Threat of Expropriation," SITE Working Paper Series 59, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
    15. an de Meulen, Philipp, 2011. "Labor Heterogeneity and the Risk of Expropriation in Less Developed Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 298, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    16. Girard, Victoire & Kudebayeva, Alma & Toews, Gerhard, 2020. "Inflated Expectations and Commodity Prices: Evidence from Kazakhstan," GLO Discussion Paper Series 469, Global Labor Organization (GLO), revised 2020.
    17. Christopher Hajzler, 2012. "Expropriation of foreign direct investments: sectoral patterns from 1993 to 2006," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(1), pages 119-149, April.
    18. Stan du Plessis, 2011. "Nationalising South African mines: Back to a prosperous future, or down a rabbit hole?," Working Papers 17/2011, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    19. Catarina Reis, 2013. "Taxation without commitment," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 52(2), pages 565-588, March.
    20. Christa N. Brunnschweiler & Simone Valente, 2013. "Property Rights, Oil and Income Levels: Over a Century of Evidence," Working Paper Series 15613, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22421. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.