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Evidence for Relational Contracts in Sovereign Bank Lending

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  • Peter Benczur
  • Cosmin L. Ilut
Abstract
This paper presents direct evidence for relational contracts in sovereign bank lending. Unlike the existing empirical literature, its instrumental variables method allows for distinguishing a direct influence of past repayment problems on current spreads (a "punishment" effect in prices) from an indirect effect through higher expected future default probabilities ("loss of reputation"). Such a punishment provides positive surplus to lenders after a default and decreases the borrower's present discounted value of the net benefits of future borrowing, which create dynamic incentives. Using data on bank loans to developing countries between 1973-1981 and constructing continuous variables for credit history, we find evidence that most of the influence of past repayment problems is through the direct, punishment channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Benczur & Cosmin L. Ilut, 2014. "Evidence for Relational Contracts in Sovereign Bank Lending," NBER Working Papers 20391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20391
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    2. Catão, Luis A.V. & Mano, Rui C., 2017. "Default premium," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 91-110.
    3. Mr. Tamon Asonuma, 2016. "Serial Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings," IMF Working Papers 2016/066, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Maxime TERRIEUX & Benoît Jonveaux & Marin Ferry (Université Gustave Eiffel, DIAL), 2021. "Debt sustainability in Africa: state of play and future challenges," Working Paper 5b1b8e30-4a94-42f3-9e4b-9, Agence française de développement.
    5. Maxime TERRIEUX & Benoît Jonveaux & Marin Ferry (Université Gustave Eiffel, DIAL), 2021. "La soutenabilité des dettes en Afrique : état des lieux et enjeux futurs," Working Paper 5b1b8e30-4a94-42f3-9e4b-9, Agence française de développement.
    6. Fløgstad, Cathrin N. & Nordtveit, Ingvild, 2014. "Lending to developing countries: How do official creditors respond to sovereign defaults?," Working Papers in Economics 01/14, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    7. Christoph Trebesch & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/203, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Wache, Benjamin, 2021. "Information Frictions, Global Capital Markets, and the Telegraph," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242444, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2013. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 85-117, July.
    10. Eberhardt, Markus, 2018. "(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default," CEPR Discussion Papers 13084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Silano, Filippo, 2023. "Agency costs in primary dealer systems," ILE Working Paper Series 69, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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