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Converging to Convergence

Author

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  • Michael Kremer
  • Jack Willis
  • Yang You
Abstract
Empirical tests in the 1990s found little evidence of poor countries catching up with rich - unconditional convergence - since the 1960s, and divergence over longer periods. This stylized fact spurred several developments in growth theory, including AK models, poverty trap models, and the concept of convergence conditional on determinants of steady-state income. We revisit these findings, using the subsequent 25 years as an out-of-sample test, and document a trend towards unconditional convergence since 1990 and convergence since 2000, driven by both faster catch-up growth and slower growth of the frontier. During the same period, many of the correlates of growth - human capital, policies, institutions, and culture - also converged substantially and moved in the direction associated with higher income. Were these changes related? Using the omitted variable bias formula, we decompose the gap between unconditional and conditional convergence as the product of two cross-sectional slopes. First, correlate-income slopes, which remained largely stable since 1990. Second, growth-correlate slopes controlling for income - the coefficients of growth regressions - which remained stable for fundamentals of the Solow model (investment rate, population growth, and human capital) but which flattened substantially for other correlates, leading unconditional convergence to converge towards conditional convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kremer & Jack Willis & Yang You, 2021. "Converging to Convergence," NBER Working Papers 29484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29484
    Note: DEV EFG IFM
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    2. Patel, Dev & Sandefur, Justin & Subramanian, Arvind, 2021. "The new era of unconditional convergence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2022. "In Defence of the Endogenous Growth Theory: "Conditional" and "Unconditional" Convergence in Two-Country AK Models," MPRA Paper 115092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ikhenaode, Bright Isaac & Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2022. "Migration, technology diffusion and convergence in a two-country AK Growth Model," MPRA Paper 115340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    6. Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "Economic Convergence With Safe Assets," Working Papers hal-03662832, HAL.
    7. Eftimoski, Dimitar, 2022. "On the inconclusive effect of human capital on growth: A new look at extended specifications," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 708-727.
    8. Boppart, Timo & Li, Huiyu, 2021. "Productivity slowdown: reducing the measure of our ignorance," CEPR Discussion Papers 16478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Vito Imbrenda & Rosa Coluzzi & Valerio Di Stefano & Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati & Caterina Samela & Tiziana Simoniello & Maria Lanfredi, 2022. "Modeling Spatio-Temporal Divergence in Land Vulnerability to Desertification with Local Regressions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Kadigi, Reuben M.J. & Robinson, Elizabeth & Szabo, Sylvia & Kangile, Joseph & Mgeni, Charles P. & De Maria, Marcello & Tsusaka, Takuji & Nhau, Brighton, 2022. "Revisiting the Solow-Swan model of income convergence in the context of coffee producing and re-exporting countries in the world," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115636, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Matthieu Charpe, 2023. "Convergence heterogeneity at the local level in sub‐Saharan Africa," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 273-305, April.
    12. Karina Acosta & Jaime Bonet-Morón, 2022. "Convergencia regional en Colombia en el Siglo XXI," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 308, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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