[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/27148.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade in Technology: A Potential Solution to the Food Security Challenges of the 21st Century

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas W. Hertel
  • Uris L.C. Baldos
  • Keith O. Fuglie
Abstract
The recent rise in caloric undernutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) demonstrates the continued relevance of the Malthusian footrace between food availability and population. Sluggish growth in farm productivity in SSA has brought to the fore the key role of agricultural technology in alleviating future food insecurity. We develop a model of technology, food security and international trade with three distinct channels for technology reduce food insecurity in SSA. The first is via greater domestic R&D investment. An alternative is to import technologies from other countries with significant knowledge capital. The third role for technology to resolve the Malthusian dilemma in SSA is that of ‘virtual technology trade’, i.e., importing technological investments undertaken elsewhere through cheaper imported food. To assess the relative contribution of each channel to food security in Africa, we employ a partial equilibrium, quantitative trade model, augmented by a temporal relationship between R&D investments, knowledge capital and agricultural productivity. Over the historical period: 1991-2011 we find that direct R&D investments in SSA have been the dominant vehicle for lowering food prices in Africa. Looking forward to 2050, we find that virtual technology trade will be the most important vehicle for reducing non-farm undernutrition in Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas W. Hertel & Uris L.C. Baldos & Keith O. Fuglie, 2020. "Trade in Technology: A Potential Solution to the Food Security Challenges of the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 27148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27148
    Note: ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w27148.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rachel Griffith & Stephen Redding & John Van Reenen, 2004. "Mapping the Two Faces of R&D: Productivity Growth in a Panel of OECD Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 883-895, November.
    2. Simon P. Anderson & André De Palma & Jacques-François Thisse, 1989. "Demand for Differentiated Products, Discrete Choice Models, and the Characteristics Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(1), pages 21-35.
    3. Nelson B. Villoria & Thomas W. Hertel, 2011. "Geography Matters: International Trade Patterns and the Indirect Land Use Effects of Biofuels," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 919-935.
    4. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Thomas W. Hertel & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2016. "Predicting Long-Term Food Demand, Cropland Use, and Prices," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 417-441, October.
    7. Heisey, Paul W & Fuglie, Keith O., 2018. "Agricultural Research Investment and Policy Reform in High-Income Countries," Economic Research Report 276235, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    8. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2013. "No Mangoes in the Tundra: Spatial Heterogeneity in Agricultural Productivity Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 914-939, December.
    9. Alexandre Gohin & Thomas W. Hertel, 2001. "A note on the CES functional form and its use in the GTAP model," Post-Print hal-01931687, HAL.
    10. Lin, Justin Yifu, 1992. "Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 34-51, March.
    11. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:ags:aaea22:335666 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kym Anderson, 2022. "Agriculture in a more uncertain global trade environment," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(4), pages 563-579, July.
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Mingli & Luo, Kang, 2023. "Food security and digital economy in China: A pathway towards sustainable development," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1106-1125.
    4. Hiroyuki Takeshima, 2024. "Public Expenditure’s Role in Reducing Poverty and Improving Food and Nutrition Security: Cross-Country Evidence from SPEED Data," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 36(5), pages 1045-1073, October.
    5. Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe & Baquedano, Felix & Morgan, Stephen, 2022. "Evaluating the Prediction Performance of the International Food Security Assessment's Production Models: A Cross-Validation Approach," USDA Miscellaneous 333530, United States Department of Agriculture.
    6. Annegrace Zembe & Livhuwani David Nemakonde & Paul Chipangura & Christo Coetzee & Fortune Mangara, 2024. "A Technological Perspective of Bringing Climate Change Adaptation, Disaster Risk Reduction, and Food Security Together in South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-15, August.
    7. Paul Brenton & Vicky Chemutai & Mari Pangestu, 2022. "Trade and food security in a climate change‐impacted world," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(4), pages 580-591, July.
    8. Ray, Srabashi & Hertel, Thomas, 2022. "Assessing The Impact Of Conservation Policies On Rural Communities: The Role Of Labor Markets," Conference papers 333401, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Kayenat Kabir & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Thomas W. Hertel, 2023. "The new Malthusian challenge in the Sahel: prospects for improving food security in Niger," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(2), pages 455-476, April.
    10. Ryota Nakatani, 2024. "Food companies' productivity dynamics: Exploring the role of intangible assets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 185-226, January.
    11. Huong Nguyen & Marcus Randall & Andrew Lewis, 2024. "Factors Affecting Crop Prices in the Context of Climate Change—A Review," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, January.
    12. Jayjit Roy & Manan Roy & Jessica Robinson, 2024. "Agricultural Trade and Food Security," Working Papers 24-18, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    13. Christopher B. Barrett, 2021. "Overcoming Global Food Security Challenges through Science and Solidarity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(2), pages 422-447, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hertel, By Thomas W. & Baldos, Uris L.C. & Fuglie, Keith O., 2020. "Trade in technology: A potential solution to the food security challenges of the 21st century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Thomas W. Hertel & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2016. "Predicting Long-Term Food Demand, Cropland Use, and Prices," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 417-441, October.
    3. Baldos, Uris Lantz & Thomas Hertel, 2014. "Bursting the Bubble: A Long Run Perspective on Crop Commodity Prices," GTAP Working Papers 4574, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    4. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas & Lammers, Richard & Prusevich, Alexander & Baldos, Uris Lantz & Grogan, Danielle & Frolking, Steve, 2016. "Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Production and Land Use," Conference papers 332691, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. H. Charles J. Godfray & Sherman Robinson, 2015. "Contrasting approaches to projecting long-run global food security," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 26-44.
    6. Nelson Villoria & Rachael Garrett & Florian Gollnow & Kimberly Carlson, 2022. "Leakage does not fully offset soy supply-chain efforts to reduce deforestation in Brazil," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Tong, Haizhi & Fulginiti, Lilyan E. & Sesmero, Juan P., 2009. "Chinese Regional Agricultural Productivity: 1994-2005," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51784, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Steff De Visscher & Markus Eberhardt & Gerdie Everaert, 2017. "Measuring productivity and absorptive capacity evolution," Discussion Papers 2017-11, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    9. Brian J. Revell, 2015. "One Man's Meat … 2050? Ruminations on Future Meat Demand in the Context of Global Warming," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 573-614, September.
    10. Nin-Pratt, Alejandro, 2016. "Comparing apples to apples: A new indicator of research and development investment intensity in agriculture:," IFPRI discussion papers 1559, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Thomas Hertel & Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Uris Baldos, 2013. "Competition for land in the global bioeconomy," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 129-138, November.
    12. Hu, Yumeng & Liu, Yu, 2024. "Impact of fertilizer and pesticide reductions on land use in China based on crop-land integrated model," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Federal Reserve Bank Kansas City, 2018. "Agriculture in a Global Economy: 2018 Agricultural Symposium," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Special I, pages 1-96.
    14. Nin-Prat, Alejandro & Falconi, Cesar & Ludena, Carlos & Martel, Pedro, 2015. "Productivity and the Performance of Agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean: From the Lost Decade to the Commodity Boom," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211725, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. John T. Saunders & Marcel Adenäuer & Jonathan Brooks, 2019. "Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 131, OECD Publishing.
    16. David Laborde & Simla Tokgoz & Lindsay Shutes & Hugo Valin, 2013. "Assessment framework and operational definitions for long-term scenarios," FOODSECURE Working papers 14, LEI Wageningen UR.
    17. Eberhardt, Markus & Everaert, Gerdie & De Visscher, Stef, 2017. "Measuring Productivity and Absorptive Capacity Evolution in OECD Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 12261, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Falconi, César A., 2018. "The agricultural R&D investment gap in Latin America and the Caribbean," IFPRI discussion papers 1749, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine V. & Wise, Marshall A. & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-17.
    20. Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.