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Migration Costs and Observational Returns to Migration in the Developing World

Author

Listed:
  • David Lagakos
  • Samuel Marshall
  • Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
  • Corey Vernot
  • Michael E. Waugh
Abstract
Recent studies find that observational returns to rural-urban migration are near zero in three developing countries. We revisit this result using panel tracking surveys from six countries, finding higher returns on average. We then interpret these returns in a multi-region Roy model with heterogeneity in migration costs. In the model, the observational return to migration confounds the urban premium and the individual benefits of migrants, and is not directly informative about the welfare gain from lowering migration costs. Patterns of regional heterogeneity in returns, and a comparison of experimental to observational returns, are consistent with the model’s predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • David Lagakos & Samuel Marshall & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Corey Vernot & Michael E. Waugh, 2020. "Migration Costs and Observational Returns to Migration in the Developing World," NBER Working Papers 26868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26868
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    2. Tushar Bharati & Adnan M. S. Fakir & Wina Yoman, 2024. "Internal Migration and Labor Market Outcomes in Indonesia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(2), pages 997-1040.
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    4. Tasso Adam & Loren Brandt & Chaoran Chen & Diego Restuccia & Xiaoyun Wei, 2024. "Land Security and Mobility Frictions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1941-1987.
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    8. De Weerdt,Joachim & Christiaensen,Luc & Kanbur,Ravi, 2021. "When Distance Drives Destination, Towns Can Stimulate Development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9622, The World Bank.
    9. David McKenzie, 2024. "Fears and Tears: Should More People Be Moving within and from Developing Countries, and What Stops this Movement?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 39(1), pages 75-96.
    10. Qingen Gai & Naijia Guo & Bingjing Li & Qinghua Shi & Xiaodong Zhu, 2021. "Migration Costs, Sorting, and the Agricultural Productivity Gap," Working Papers tecipa-693, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    11. Baysan, Ceren & Dar, Manzoor H. & Emerick, Kyle & Li, Zhimin & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 2024. "The agricultural wage gap within rural villages," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq & Sharif, Iffath & Shrestha, Maheshwor, 2021. "Returns to International Migration: Evidence from a Bangladesh-Malaysia Visa Lottery," IZA Discussion Papers 14232, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Zhang, Li & Xie, Lunyu & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "Across a few prohibitive miles: The impact of the Anti-Poverty Relocation Program in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    14. Valerie Mueller & Camila Páez-Bernal & Clark Gray & Karen Grépin, 2023. "The Gendered Consequences of COVID-19 for Internal Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(4), pages 1-37, August.
    15. Melissa Hidrobo & Valerie Mueller & Shalini Roy, 2022. "Cash transfers, migration, and gender norms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 550-568, March.
    16. Zhe Liu & Zhenhong Qi & Qingsong Tian & John Stephen Clark & Zeyu Zhang, 2024. "The Impact of Digital Finance on Farmers’ Adoption of Eco-Agricultural Technology: Evidence from Rice-Crayfish Co-Cultivation Technology in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, April.
    17. Maria Caridad Araujo & Karen Macours, 2021. "Education, Income and Mobility: Experimental Impacts of Childhood Exposure to Progresa after 20 Years," Working Papers halshs-03364972, HAL.
    18. Cirillo, Marinella & Cattaneo, Andrea & Miller, Meghan & Sadiddin, Ahmad, 2022. "Establishing the link between internal and international migration: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
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    20. Cao, Huoqing & Chen, Chaoran & Xi, Xican, 2024. "Home Production and Gender Gap in Structural Change," MPRA Paper 122334, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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