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A Dynamic Model of Characteristic-Based Return Predictability

Author

Listed:
  • Aydoğan Alti
  • Sheridan Titman
Abstract
We present a dynamic model that links characteristic-based return predictability to systematic factors that determine the evolution of firm fundamentals. In the model, an economy-wide disruption process reallocates profits from existing businesses to new projects and thus generates a source of systematic risk for portfolios of firms sorted on value, profitability, and asset growth. If investors are overconfident about their ability to evaluate the disruption climate, these characteristic-sorted portfolios exhibit persistent mispricing. The model generates predictions about the conditional predictability of characteristic-sorted portfolio returns and illustrates how return persistence increases the likelihood of observing characteristic-based anomalies.

Suggested Citation

  • Aydoğan Alti & Sheridan Titman, 2019. "A Dynamic Model of Characteristic-Based Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 25777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25777
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Peress, Joël & Dong, Xi & KANG, NAMHO, 2020. "Fast and Slow Arbitrage: Fund Flows and Mispricing in the Frequency Domain," CEPR Discussion Papers 15235, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Dawen Yan & Xiaohui Zhang & Mingzheng Wang, 2021. "A robust bank asset allocation model integrating credit-rating migration risk and capital adequacy ratio regulations," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 659-710, April.
    3. Zdeněk Zmeškal & Dana Dluhošová & Karolina Lisztwanová & Antonín Pončík & Iveta Ratmanová, 2023. "Distribution Prediction of Decomposed Relative EVA Measure with Levy-Driven Mean-Reversion Processes: The Case of an Automotive Sector of a Small Open Economy," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Valentin Haddad & Serhiy Kozak & Shrihari Santosh & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Factor Timing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 1980-2018.
    5. Guillaume Coqueret, 2022. "Characteristics-driven returns in equilibrium," Papers 2203.07865, arXiv.org.
    6. Blanco, Ivan & De Jesus, Miguel & Remesal, Alvaro, 2023. "Overlapping momentum portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-22.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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