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Making Carbon Taxation a Generational Win Win

Author

Listed:
  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  • Felix Kubler
  • Andrey Polbin
  • Jeffrey D. Sachs
  • Simon Scheidegger
Abstract
Carbon taxation has been studied primarily in social planner or infinitely lived agent models, which trade off the welfare of future and current generations. Such frameworks obscure the potential for carbon taxation to produce a generational win-win. This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic 55-period, OLG model to calculate the carbon tax policy delivering the highest uniform welfare gain to all generations. The OLG framework, with its selfish generations, seems far more natural for studying climate damage. Our model features coal, oil, and gas, each extracted subject to increasing costs, a clean energy sector, technical and demographic change, and Nordhaus (2017)’s temperature/damage functions. Our model’s optimal uniform welfare increasing (UWI) carbon tax starts at $30 tax, rises annually at 1.5 percent and raises the welfare of all current and future generations by 0.73 percent on a consumption-equivalent basis. Sharing efficiency gains evenly requires, however, taxing future generations by as much as 8.1 percent and subsidizing early generations by as much as 1.2 percent of lifetime consumption. Without such redistribution (the Nordhaus “optimum”), the carbon tax constitutes a win-lose policy with current generations experiencing an up to 0.84 percent welfare loss and future generations experiencing an up to 7.54 percent welfare gain. With a six-times larger damage function, the optimal UWI initial carbon tax is $70, again rising annually at 1.5 percent. This policy raises all generations’ welfare by almost 5 percent. However, doing so requires levying taxes on and giving transfers to future and current generations ranging up to 50.1 percent and 10.3 percent of their lifetime consumption. Delaying carbon policy, for 20 years, reduces efficiency gains roughly in half.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler & Andrey Polbin & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Simon Scheidegger, 2019. "Making Carbon Taxation a Generational Win Win," NBER Working Papers 25760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25760
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    1. Making Carbon Taxation a Generational Win Win
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2019-05-02 17:49:32

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    2. Laurence Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler & Andrey Polbin & Simon Scheidegger, 2021. "Pareto-improving carbon-risk taxation [The environment and directed technical change]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 36(107), pages 551-589.
    3. Frederick van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2020. "Stranded Assets in the Transition to a Carbon-Free Economy," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 281-298, October.
    4. Rick Van der Ploeg, 2020. "Discounting And Climate Policy," OxCarre Working Papers 244, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Yongyang Cai, 2020. "The Role of Uncertainty in Controlling Climate Change," Papers 2003.01615, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    6. Rausch, Sebastian & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2023. "Green technology policies versus carbon pricing: An intergenerational perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Abiry, Raphael & Ferdinandusse, Marien & Ludwig, Alexander & Nerlich, Carolin, 2022. "Climate change mitigation: How effective is green quantitative easing?," SAFE Working Paper Series 376, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    8. Kotlikoff, Laurence & Kubler, Felix & Polbin, Andrey & Scheidegger, Simon, 2024. "Can today’s and tomorrow’s world uniformly gain from carbon taxation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon & Tovar Reanos, Miguel, 2022. "Gathering support for green tax reform: Evidence from German household surveys," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Andersen, Torben M. & Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Liu, Pan, 2020. "Resolving intergenerational conflict over the environment under the Pareto criterion," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    11. Frederick Ploeg, 2023. "Fiscal Costs of Climate Policies: Role of Tax, Political, and Behavioural Distortions," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(2), pages 119-137, June.
    12. Braga, Joao Paulo & Semmler, Willi & Grass, Dieter, 2021. "De-risking of green investments through a green bond market – Empirics and a dynamic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    13. Lennard Schlattmann, 2024. "Spatial Redistribution of Carbon Taxes," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 345, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
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    21. Arnaud Goussebaïle, 2022. "Democratic Climate Policies with Overlapping Generations," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 22/374, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    22. Arik Sadeh & Claudia Florina Radu & Cristina Feniser & Andrei Borşa, 2020. "Governmental Intervention and Its Impact on Growth, Economic Development, and Technology in OECD Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-30, December.
    23. Rezgar FEIZI & Sahar AMIDI & Thais NUNEZ-ROCHA & Isabelle RABAUD, 2022. "Carbon Tax and Emissions Transfer: a Spatial Analysis," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2965, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
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    17. Hassler, J. & Krusell, P. & Smith, A.A., 2016. "Environmental Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1893-2008, Elsevier.
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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General

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