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Monthly Payment Targeting and the Demand for Maturity

Author

Listed:
  • Bronson Argyle
  • Taylor D. Nadauld
  • Christopher Palmer
Abstract
In this paper, we provide evidence of the importance of monthly payments in the market for consumer installment debt. Auto debt in particular has grown rapidly since the Great Recession and has eclipsed credit cards in total debt outstanding. Auto-loan maturities have also increased such that most auto-loan originations now have a term of over 72 months. We document three phenomena we jointly refer to as monthly payment targeting. First, using data from 500,000 used auto loans and discontinuities in contract terms offered by hundreds of lenders, we show that demand is more sensitive to maturity than interest rate, consistent with consumers managing payment size when making debt decisions. Second, many consumers appear to employ segregated mental accounts, spending exogenous payment savings on larger loans. Third, consumers bunch at round-number monthly payment amounts, consistent with the use of budgeting heuristics. These patterns hold in subsamples of constrained and unconstrained borrowers, challenging liquidity constraints as a complete explanation. Our estimates suggest that borrower focus on payment size, combined with credit-supply shocks to maturity, could significantly affect aggregate outstanding debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Bronson Argyle & Taylor D. Nadauld & Christopher Palmer, 2019. "Monthly Payment Targeting and the Demand for Maturity," NBER Working Papers 25668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25668
    Note: CF ME PE
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bronson Argyle & Taylor Nadauld & Christopher Palmer & Ryan Pratt, 2021. "The Capitalization of Consumer Financing into Durable Goods Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 169-210, February.
    2. Jose J. Canals-Cerda & Brian Jonghwan Lee, 2021. "COVID-19 and Auto Loan Origination Trends," Working Papers 21-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. J. Anthony Cookson & Erik P. Gilje & Rawley Z. Heimer, 2020. "Shale Shocked: Cash Windfalls and Household Debt Repayment," NBER Working Papers 27782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Olivier Darmouni & Andrew Sutherland, 2021. "Learning about Competitors: Evidence from SME Lending [Monthly payment targeting and the demand for maturity]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 2275-2317.
    5. Xudong An & Lawrence R. Cordell & Sharon Tang, 2020. "Extended Loan Terms and Auto Loan Default Risk," Working Papers 20-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    6. Jordan van Rijn & Shuwei Zeng & Paul Hellman, 2021. "Financial institution objectives and auto loan pricing: Evidence from the survey of consumer finances," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 995-1039, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D18 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Protection
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • M38 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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