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Endogenous Fertility, Mortality and Economic Growth: Can a Malthusian Framework Account for the Conflicting Historical Trends in Population?

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  • Isaac Ehrlich
  • Jinyoung Kim
Abstract
The 19th century economist, Thomas Robert Malthus, hypothesized that the long-run supply of labor is completely elastic at a fixed wage-income level because population growth tends to outstrip real output growth. Dynamic equilibrium with constant income and population is achieved through equilibrating adjustments in "positive checks" (mortality, starvation) and "preventive checks" (marriage, fertility). Developing economies since the Industrial Revolution, and more recently especially Asian economies, have experienced steady income growth accompanied by sharply falling fertility and mortality rates. We develop a dynamic model of endogenous fertility, longevity, and human capital formation within a Malthusian framework that allows for diminishing returns to labor but also for the role of human capital as an engine of growth. Our model accounts for economic stagnation with high fertility and mortality and constant population and income, as predicted by Malthus, but also for takeoffs to a growth regime and a demographic transition toward low fertility and mortality rates, and a persistent growth in per-capita income.

Suggested Citation

  • Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Endogenous Fertility, Mortality and Economic Growth: Can a Malthusian Framework Account for the Conflicting Historical Trends in Population?," NBER Working Papers 11590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11590
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    Cited by:

    1. Isaac Ehrlich & Yong Yin, 2013. "Equilibrium Health Spending and Population Aging in a Model of Endogenous Growth: Will the GDP Share of Health Spending Keep Rising?," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(4), pages 411-447.
    2. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2010. "A theory of infrastructure-led development," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 932-950, May.
    3. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins & Matthew Curtis, 2020. "Twins Support the Absence of Parity-Dependent Fertility Control in Pretransition Populations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(4), pages 1571-1595, August.
    4. Holger Strulik & Jacob Weisdorf, 2008. "Birth, Death, and Development: A Simple Unified Growth Theory," Discussion Papers 08-32, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    5. Isaac Ehrlich & Yun Pei, 2020. "Human Capital as Engine of Growth: The Role of Knowledge Transfers in Promoting Balanced Growth within and across Countries," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 37(2), pages 225-263, September.
    6. Amparo Castelló-Climent, 2010. "Channels through Which Human Capital Inequality Influences Economic Growth," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(4), pages 394-450.
    7. Emerson, Patrick M. & Knabb, Shawn D. & Sirbu, Anca-Ioana, 2019. "Institutional Responses to Aging Populations and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 12561, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Strulik, Holger & Weisdorf, Jacob, 2010. "How Child Costs and Survival Shaped the Industrial Revolution and the Demographic Transition: A Theoretical Inquiry," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-442, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    9. Tiloka de Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "The Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 77-109, July.
    10. Giray Gozgor & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Peter Rangazas, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 373-399.
    11. Ulla Lehmijoki & Tapio Palokangas, 2010. "Demographic and Economic Consequences of the Post-war Mortality Decline in Developing Countries," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_010, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    12. Alberto Bucci, 2015. "Product Proliferation, Population, and Economic Growth," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(2), pages 170-197.
    13. Lehmijoki, Ulla & Palokangas, Tapio K., 2011. "The Long-Run Effects of Mortality Decline in Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 5422, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. de Silva, Tiloka & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2017. "The large fall in global fertility: A quantitative model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86157, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Carlos Esteban Posada, 2013. "Crecimiento económico y transición demográfica: un modelo y el caso colombiano de los siglos XIX y XX," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, December.
    16. Rangan Gupta & Emmanuel Ziramba, 2010. "Optimal public policy with endogenous mortality," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 241-249.
    17. Emerson, Patrick & Knabb, Shawn & Sirbu, Anca-Ioana, 2024. "Does the old-age dependency ratio place a drag on secular growth?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1056-1070.

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    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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