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Do Stock Prices Really Reflect Fundamental Values? The Case of REITs

Author

Listed:
  • William M. Gentry
  • Charles M. Jones
  • Christopher J. Mayer
Abstract
Real estate investment trust (REIT) stock prices deviate substantially from net asset values (NAV). Using REIT data since 1990, we find large positive excess returns to a strategy of buying stocks that trade at a discount to NAV, and shorting stocks trading at a premium to NAV. Estimated alphas from this strategy are between 0.9% and 1.8% per month, with little risk. Trading costs and short-sale constraints are not prohibitive and the results strengthen when we control for differences in liquidity or the extent of institutional ownership. We find that some variation in P/NAV makes sense, as premiums are positively related to recent and future NAV growth. However, there appears to be too much volatility in P/NAV, giving rise to potential profits from short-term mean reversion. The closed-end fund literature has some similar findings on stock price deviations from fundamental value, but compared to closed-end funds REITs are much larger and have much higher insider and institutional ownership. These differences suggest that REIT premiums and discounts reflect more than just small investor sentiment, which is a common explanation of why closed-end fund prices deviate from their fundamental value.

Suggested Citation

  • William M. Gentry & Charles M. Jones & Christopher J. Mayer, 2004. "Do Stock Prices Really Reflect Fundamental Values? The Case of REITs," NBER Working Papers 10850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10850
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gwangheon Hong & Bong Lee, 2013. "Does Inflation Illusion Explain the Relation between REITs and Inflation?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 123-151, July.
    2. Gregory H. MacKinnon & Ashraf Al Zaman, 2009. "Real Estate for the Long Term: The Effect of Return Predictability on Long‐Horizon Allocations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 117-153, March.
    3. Kevin Chiang, 2009. "Discovering REIT Price Discovery: A New Data Setting," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 74-91, July.
    4. Ryan Chacon & Dan French & Kuntara Pukthuanthong, 2018. "The Information Content of Analysts' Net Asset Value Estimates: The Case of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)," ERES eres2018_82, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. Joseph T.L. Ooi & James R. Webb & Dingding Zhou, 2007. "Extrapolation Theory and the Pricing of REIT Stocks," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(1), pages 27-56.
    6. Erik Devos & Andrew Spieler & Desmond Tsang, 2014. "Elective Stock Dividends and REITs: Evidence from the Financial Crisis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(1), pages 33-70, March.
    7. George D. Cashman & David M. Harrison & Hainan Sheng, 2021. "Option Trading and REIT Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 332-389, March.
    8. Dan W. French & S. McKay Price, 2018. "Depreciation-Related Capital Gains, Differential Tax Rates, and the Market Value of Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 43-63, July.
    9. Christian Weis & René-Ojas Woltering & Steffen Sebastian, 2018. "New Insights into the NAV Spread Puzzle of Listed Real Estate: Idiosyncratic and Systematic Evidence," ERES eres2018_224, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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