[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/19779.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Fiscal Stress Arising from State and Local Retiree Health Obligations

Author

Listed:
  • Byron Lutz
  • Louise Sheiner
Abstract
A major factor weighing down the long-term finances of state and local governments is the obligation to fund retiree benefits. While state and local government pension obligations have been analyzed in great detail, much less attention has been paid to the costs of the other major retiree benefit provided by these governments: retiree health insurance. The first portion of the paper uses the information contained in the annual actuarial reports for public retiree health plans to reverse engineer the cash flows underlying the liabilities given in the report. Obtaining the cash flows allows us to construct liability estimates which are consistent across governments in terms of the discount rate, actuarial method and assumptions concerning medical cost inflation and mortality. We find that the total unfunded accrued liability of state and local governments for the provision of retiree health care exceeds $1 trillion, or about ⅓ of total state and local government revenue. Relative to pension obligations discounted at the same rate, we find that unfunded retiree health care liabilities are ½ the size of unfunded pension obligations. We also find that using assumptions concerning the growth in health care costs that are arguably more realistic than those employed by most states actually reduces the size of the liability in most cases. Pushing in the opposite direction, we find that using plausibly more realistic mortality assumptions increases the size of liability. The second portion of the paper places retiree health care obligations into context by examining the budget pressures associated with retiree health on a continuing, largely pay-as-you go basis. We find that much of the projected increase in retiree health obligations as a share of revenue is the result of health care cost growth. On average, states could put their retiree health obligations into long-run fiscal balance by contributing an additional ¾ percent of total revenue toward the benefit each year. There is, however, wide variation across the states, with the majority of states requiring little in the way of additional financing, but some states requiring a significantly larger increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Byron Lutz & Louise Sheiner, 2014. "The Fiscal Stress Arising from State and Local Retiree Health Obligations," NBER Working Papers 19779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19779
    Note: AG EH PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19779.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert L. Clark & Melinda Sandler Morrill, 2010. "Retiree Health Plans in the Public Sector," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13688.
    2. Robert L. Clark, 2010. "Retiree Health Plans for Public School Teachers after GASB 43 and 45," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 5(4), pages 438-462, October.
    3. Shoven, John B. & Slavov, Sita Nataraj, 2014. "The role of retiree health insurance in the early retirement of public sector employees," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 99-108.
    4. Clark, Robert L. & Morrill, Melinda Sandler, 2011. "The funding status of retiree health plans in the public sector," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 291-314, April.
    5. Clemens, Jeffrey & Cutler, David M., 2014. "Who pays for public employee health costs?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 65-76.
    6. Fitzpatrick, Maria D., 2014. "Retiree health insurance for public school employees: Does it affect retirement?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 88-98.
    7. James Marton & Stephen A. Woodbury, 2007. "Retiree Health Benefit Coverage and Retirement," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Dimitri B. Papadimitriou (ed.),Government Spending on the Elderly, pages 222-242, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    8. Poterba, James M, 1994. "State Responses to Fiscal Crises: The Effects of Budgetary Institutions and Politics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 799-821, August.
    9. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2013. "Funding Soft Liabilities," NBER Chapters, in: State and Local Health Plans for Active and Retired Public Employees, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Stephen A. Woodbury & James Marton, 2006. "Retiree Health Benefit Coverage and Retirement," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_470, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Robert L. Clark, 2009. "Will Public Sector Retiree Health Benefit Plans Survive? Economic and Policy Implications of Unfunded Liabilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 533-537, May.
    12. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2009. "The Liabilities and Risks of State-Sponsored Pension Plans," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 191-210, Fall.
    13. Jean Burson & John B. Carlson & O. Emre Ergungor & Patricia Waiwood, 2013. "Do public pension obligations affect state funding costs?," Working Papers (Old Series) 1301, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2017. "The Public Debt Crisis of the United States," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85, pages 1-32, September.
    2. Ivanov, Ivan T. & Zimmermann, Tom, 2024. "The “Privatization” of municipal debt," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    3. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2017. "Federal Budget Policy with an Aging Population and Persistently Low Interest Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 175-194, Summer.
    4. Quinby, Laura D. & Wettstein, Gal, 2021. "Do deferred benefit cuts for current employees increase separation?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lutz, Byron & Sheiner, Louise, 2014. "The fiscal stress arising from state and local retiree health obligations," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 130-146.
    2. Clark, Robert L. & Morrill, Melinda Sandler & Vanderweide, David, 2014. "The effects of retiree health insurance plan characteristics on retirees’ choice and employers’ costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 119-129.
    3. Byron Lutz & Louise Sheiner, 2013. "The Fiscal Stress Arising from State and Local Retiree Health Obligations," NBER Chapters, in: State and Local Health Plans for Active and Retired Public Employees, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Shoven, John B. & Slavov, Sita Nataraj, 2014. "The role of retiree health insurance in the early retirement of public sector employees," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 99-108.
    5. Erkmen Giray Aslim, 2019. "The Relationship Between Health Insurance and Early Retirement: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 112-140, January.
    6. Fitzpatrick, Maria D., 2014. "Retiree health insurance for public school employees: Does it affect retirement?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 88-98.
    7. Clark, Robert L. & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2014. "How does retiree health insurance influence public sector employee saving?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 109-118.
    8. Morrill, Melinda Sandler, 2014. "Active and retired public employees’ health insurance: Potential data sources," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 147-152.
    9. Robert L. Clark & Lee A. Craig & John Sabelhaus, 2011. "State and Local Retirement Plans in the United States," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13685.
    10. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2013. "Funding Soft Liabilities," NBER Chapters, in: State and Local Health Plans for Active and Retired Public Employees, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Robert L. Clark & Melinda Sandler Morrill, 2010. "Retiree Health Plans in the Public Sector," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13688.
    12. Laura D. Quinby, 2020. "Do Deferred Retirement Benefits Retain Government Employees?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 469-509, March.
    13. Kevin Wood, 2019. "Health insurance reform and retirement: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(12), pages 1462-1475, December.
    14. Joshua Congdon-Hohman, 2018. "Retirement Reversals and Health Insurance," Public Finance Review, , vol. 46(4), pages 583-608, July.
    15. Mark Duggan & Gopi Shah Goda & Emilie Jackson, 2019. "The Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Insurance Coverage and Labor Market Outcomes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 72(2), pages 261-322, June.
    16. Papke, Leslie E., 2019. "Retirement choices by state and local public sector employees: the role of eligibility and financial incentives," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 515-528, October.
    17. Clark, Robert L. & Morrill, Melinda Sandler, 2011. "The funding status of retiree health plans in the public sector," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 291-314, April.
    18. Mary J. Lopez & Sita Slavov, 2020. "Do immigrants delay retirement and social security claiming?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(10), pages 1105-1123, February.
    19. Padmaja Ayyagari, 2019. "Health Insurance and Early Retirement Plans: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act," American Journal of Health Economics, MIT Press, vol. 5(4), pages 533-560, Fall.
    20. Robert Clark & Melinda Morrill, 2013. "Increasing Work Life: The Role Of The Employer," Discussion Papers 13-016, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19779. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.