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Bounding the Effects of Social Experiments: Accounting for Attrition in Administrative Data

Author

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  • Jeffrey Grogger
Abstract
Social experiments frequently exploit data from administrative records. However, most administrative data systems are state-specific, designed to track earnings or benefit payments among residents within a single state. Once an experimental participant moves out of state, his earnings and benefits in his state of origin consist entirely of zeros, giving rise to a form of attrition. In the presence of such attrition, the average treatment effect of the experiment is no longer point-identified, despite random assignment. I propose a method to estimate such attrition and, for binary outcomes such as employment, to construct bounds on the average treatment effect. Results from a welfare-reform experiment considered to have sizeable effects appear quite ambiguous after accounting for attrition. The results have important implications for planning social experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Grogger, 2013. "Bounding the Effects of Social Experiments: Accounting for Attrition in Administrative Data," NBER Working Papers 18838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18838
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Chyn & Kareem Haggag, 2023. "Moved to Vote: The Long-Run Effects of Neighborhoods on Political Participation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1596-1605, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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