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Econometric Analysis of Present Value Models When the Discount Factor Is near One

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  • Kenneth D. West
Abstract
This paper develops asymptotic econometric theory to help understand data generated by a present value model with a discount factor near one. A leading application is to exchange rate models. A key assumption of the asymptotic theory is that the discount factor approaches 1 as the sample size grows. The finite sample approximation implied by the asymptotic theory is quantitatively congruent with modest departures from random walk behavior with imprecise estimation of a well-studied regression relating spot and forward exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth D. West, 2012. "Econometric Analysis of Present Value Models When the Discount Factor Is near One," NBER Working Papers 18247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18247
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    2. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Katya & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2022. "A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Ștefan Virgil IACOB & Iulian RADU, 2022. "Assessing the performance of mutual funds," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(631), S), pages 175-186, Summer.
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    5. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2018. "Perpetual learning and apparent long memory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 343-365.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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