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Transition to FDI Openness: Reconciling Theory and Evidence

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  • Ellen R. McGrattan
Abstract
Empirical studies quantifying the economic effects of increased foreign direct investment (FDI) have not provided conclusive evidence that they are positive, as theory predicts. This paper shows that the lack of empirical evidence is consistent with theory if countries are in transition to FDI openness. Anticipated welfare gains lead to temporary declines in domestic investment and employment. Also, growth measures miss some intangible FDI, which is expensed from company profits. The reconciliation of theory and evidence is accomplished with a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model parameterized with data from a sample of 104 countries during 1980-2005. Although no systematic benefits of FDI openness are found, the model demonstrates that the eventual gains in growth and welfare can be huge, especially for small countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ellen R. McGrattan, 2011. "Transition to FDI Openness: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 16774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16774
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Hal Spencer, 2022. "Policy Effects of International Taxation on Firm Dynamics and Capital Structure," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 2149-2200.
    2. Thomas J. Holmes & Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2011. "Technology capital transfer," Working Papers 687, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Costas Arkolakis & Natalia Ramondo & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Stephen Yeaple, 2018. "Innovation and Production in the Global Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2128-2173, August.
    4. Napiórkowski1 Tomasz M., 2014. "International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment as Innovation Factors of the U.S. Economy," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 41(1), pages 60-75, March.
    5. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2014. "Do intangible assets explain high U.S. foreign direct investment returns?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 159-171.
    6. Ellen McGrattan, 2012. "Transition to FDI Openness: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(4), pages 437-458, October.
    7. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "Revisiting the knowledge-capital model of foreign direct investment: New multi-country evidence," MPRA Paper 114559, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2022.
    8. Elgin, Ceyhun & Yucel, Emekcan, 2014. "Determinants of the weight for leisure in preferences," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-26.
    9. Alexios Anagnostopoulos & Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu & Elisa Faraglia & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment as a Determinant of Cross-Country Stock Market Comovement," Discussion Papers 1912, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    10. Timothy Uy, 2015. "Zeros and the Gains from Openness," 2015 Meeting Papers 1158, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Contessi, Silvio, 2015. "Multinational firms׳ entry and productivity: Some aggregate implications of firm-level heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 61-80.
    12. Kox, Henk L.M., 2023. "Testing an extended knowledge-capital model of foreign direct investment," MPRA Paper 117266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "Linking the knowledge-capital model of foreign direct investment with national knowledge systems," EconStor Preprints 266495, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "Testing the knowledge-capital model of foreign direct investment: New evidence," MPRA Paper 114177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Simeon Alder & David Lagakos & Lee Ohanian, 2014. "Competitive Pressure and the Decline of the Rust Belt: A Macroeconomic Analysis," NBER Working Papers 20538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Manuel García-Santana, 2013. "Foreign Firms, Distribution of Income, and the Welfare of Developing Countries," 2013 Meeting Papers 1044, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. L. Kamran Bilir & Eduardo Morales, 2016. "Innovation in the Global Firm," NBER Working Papers 22160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Natalia Ramondo, 2015. "Innovation and Production in the Global Economy," 2015 Meeting Papers 183, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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