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Country Risk, Foreign Borrowing and the Social Discount Rate in an Open Developing Economy

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  • Sebastian Edwards
Abstract
Most discussions on the social rate of discount have assumed that the economy under consideration is isolated from the rest of the world, and that there are no capital movements. This paper explicitly analyzes the determination of the social rate of discount in a small open developing economy. It is shown that under general conditions, the discount rate will bea weighted average of the marginal return to capital in the private sector(p), the rate of time preference (r), and the marginal cost of foreign indebtedness (n).It is also shown that unless the country faces an upward-sloping supply curve for foreign funds the weights of p and r will be zero. Finally, it is shown that if the country in question faces a foreign borrowing constraint imposed from abroad, the social rate of discount becomes equal to a weighted average of the domestic marginal return to capital and the rate of time preferences. Data for a group of LDCs is then used to show that financial markets have indeed attached a default country risk premium to LDCs. This provides some evidence in favor of the hypothesis that developing countries face an upward-sloping supply curve of foreign funds, and that, in general, the social rate of discount should be a weighted average of p, r and n. Finally,some numerical examples are used to show that ignoring the open economy aspects can result in a substantial overstatement of the social rate of discount.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 1985. "Country Risk, Foreign Borrowing and the Social Discount Rate in an Open Developing Economy," NBER Working Papers 1651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1651
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aizenman, Joshua, 1990. "External debt, planning horizon, and distorted credit markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 138-158, June.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Eduardo R. Borensztein, 1988. "Debt and Conditionality under Endogenous Terms of Trade Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(4), pages 686-713, December.
    3. Joshua Aizenman, 1989. "Inward Versus Outward Growth Orientation in the Presence of Country Risk," NBER Working Papers 2868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Levy, Nadav & Pauzner, Ady, 2014. "Government's credit-rating concerns and the evaluation of public projects," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 117-130.
    5. Esteban Serrano-Monge, 2022. "Inferences from Portfolio Theory and Efficient Market Hypothesis to the Impact of Social Media on Sovereign Debt: Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Joshua Aizenman, 1994. "World Integration, Competitive and Bargaining-Regime Switch: An Exploration," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 458-483, May.
    7. Juan Andrés Fontaine, 1994. "Inversiones Extranjeras por Fondos de Pensiones: Efectos sobre la Política Macroeconómica," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 31(93), pages 161-184.
    8. Aizenman, Joshua, 1991. "Trade dependency, bargaining and external debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 101-120, August.
    9. Wang, Alan T. & Yang, Sheng-Yung & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2013. "Information transmission between sovereign debt CDS and other financial factors – The case of Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 586-601.
    10. Kent P. Kimbrough & Kent P. Kimbrough, 1988. "Optimal Tax Policy for Balance of Payments Objectives," NBER Chapters, in: International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, pages 309-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Abdallah Othman & Glenn P. Jenkins & Mikhail Miklyaev, 2022. "Estimation of Economic Opportunity Cost of Capital: An Operational Guide for Mozambique," Development Discussion Papers 2022-04, JDI Executive Programs.
    12. Karbowski, Adam, 2016. "Discussion on the Social Rate of Discount: from Sen to Behavioural Economics," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 46-60.
    13. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1988_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Spackman, Michael, 2023. "The social discount rate and the cost of public funds: a search for more consistency and better practice," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119814, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Virén, Matti, 1988. "Determination of interest rates in small open economies : A review of recent evidence," Research Discussion Papers 16/1988, Bank of Finland.
    16. Joshua Aizenman, 1987. "Investment, Openness, and Country Risk," NBER Working Papers 2410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Joshua Aizenman, 1986. "Country Risk, Asymmetric Information and Domestic Policies," NBER Working Papers 1880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Shigeo Morita & Takuya Obara, 2021. "Public investment criteria under optimal nonlinear income taxation without commitment," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 23(4), pages 732-745, August.

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