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Integrating Retirement Models

Author

Listed:
  • Alan L. Gustman
  • Thomas Steinmeier
Abstract
This paper advances the specification and estimation of models of retirement and saving in two earner families. The complications introduced by the interaction of retirement decisions by husbands and wives have led researchers to adopt a number of simplifications to increase the feasibility of estimating family retirement models. Our model relaxes these restrictions. It includes the extended choice set created when each spouse makes an independent retirement decision. It also includes the full range of complexity found in dynamic-stochastic models of retirement decision making, so far analyzed only in the context of single earner households. Retirement outcomes include full retirement, partial retirement and full-time work. Reverse flows from states of lesser to greater work are also included. The preference structure incorporates heterogeneity in time preference, varying taste parameters for full-time and part-time work, and the possibility of changes in preferences after retirement. The opportunity set reflects the full range of nonlinearities created by pensions and Social Security. Financial returns are stochastic. Exogenous shocks such as layoffs are also included. Estimation is based on data from the Health and Retirement Study. The solution method is based on backward induction. We show that this method is superior to a method based on a Nash equilibrium, providing plausible behavioral predictions when Nash equilibrium criteria fall silent. In contrast to some recent studies, the findings suggest the flow of wives into the labor force in the last few decades has probably reduced the amount of husbands' work. The model also provides plausible responses to various policies. For example, we find that any effort to promote opportunities for partial retirement as a means to increase overall work is likely to be unsuccessful as any induced decline in full retirements is offset by a decrease in full-time work.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan L. Gustman & Thomas Steinmeier, 2009. "Integrating Retirement Models," NBER Working Papers 15607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15607
    Note: AG LS PE
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mathilde Godard, 2017. "Gaining weight through retirement? Results from the SHARE survey," Working Papers halshs-01525000, HAL.
    2. Nicolas Moreau & Elena Stancanelli, 2015. "Household Consumption at Retirement : A Regression Discontinuity Study on French Data," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 117-118, pages 253-276.
    3. Stancanelli, Elena G. F., 2012. "Spouses' Retirement and Hours Outcomes: Evidence from Twofold Regression Discontinuity with Differences-in-Differences," IZA Discussion Papers 6791, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Bonsang, Eric & van Soest, Arthur, 2015. "Home Production and Retirement in Couples: A Panel Data Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 9156, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Aganbegyan, Abel Gezevich & Gorlin, Yury Mikhailovich & Dormidontova, Yulia & Maleva, Tatyana Mikhailovna & Nazarov, Vladimir, "undated". "Analysis of Factors that Influences on Decision About Retirement Age," Published Papers nvg125, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    6. Bo Honoré & Áureo de Paula, 2011. "Interdependent Durations in Joint Retirement," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2011-5, Center for Retirement Research, revised Feb 2011.
    7. Blau, David M. & Goodstein, Ryan M., 2016. "Commitment in the household: Evidence from the effect of inheritances on the labor supply of older married couples," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 123-137.
    8. Lalive, Rafael & Parrotta, Pierpaolo, 2017. "How does pension eligibility affect labor supply in couples?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 177-188.
    9. Elena Stancanelli, 2012. "Spouses' Retirement and Hours of Work Outcomes : Evidence from Twofold Regression Discontinuity," SciencePo Working papers Main halshs-00755648, HAL.
    10. Börsch-Supan, A. & Härtl, K. & Leite, D.N., 2016. "Social Security and Public Insurance," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 781-863, Elsevier.
    11. Laura Hospido & Gema Zamarro, 2014. "Retirement patterns of couples in Europe," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Elena Stancanelli & Arthur van Soest, 2012. "Joint Leisure Before and After Retirement : a double Regression Discontinuity Approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00768901, HAL.
    13. Bonsang, Eric & van Soest, Arthur, 2020. "Time devoted to home production and retirement in couples: A panel data analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2011. "How Did the Recession of 2007-2009 Affect the Wealth and Retirement of the Near Retirement Age Population in the Health and Retirement Study?," NBER Working Papers 17547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Godard, Mathilde, 2016. "Gaining weight through retirement? Results from the SHARE survey," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 27-46.
    16. Nicolas Moreau & Elena Stancanelli, 2015. "Household Consumption at Retirement: A Regression Discontinuity Study on French Data," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00881215, HAL.
    17. Elena Stancanelli, 2012. "Spouses' Retirement and Hours of Work Outcomes: Evidence from Twofold Regression Discontinuity," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12074, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    18. Nicolas Moreau & Elena Stancanelli, 2013. "Household Consumption at Retirement: A Regression Discontinuity Study on French," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13072, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    19. Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Van Soest, Arthur & Bissonnette, Luc, 2020. "Understanding joint retirement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 386-401.
    20. Elena Stancanelli, 2012. "Spouses' Retirement and Hours of Work Outcomes : Evidence from Twofold Regression Discontinuity," Post-Print halshs-00755648, HAL.
    21. Mathilde Godard, 2015. "Gaining weight through retirement? Results from the SHARE survey," Post-Print halshs-01521884, HAL.
    22. Derek Messacar, 2022. "Labor Supply Responses to Income Taxation among Older Couples: Evidence from a Canadian Reform," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 10, Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne / Retirement and Savings Institute.
    23. Stancanelli, Elena G. F., 2016. "Couples' Retirement under Individual Pension Design: A Regression Discontinuity Study for France," IZA Discussion Papers 10322, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. Kanabar, Ricky, 2015. "Post-retirement labour supply in England," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 123-132.
    25. ICHIMURA Hidehiko & SHIMIZUTANI Satoshi, 2011. "Retirement Process in Japan: New evidence from Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement (JSTAR)," Discussion papers 11080, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

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