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Seam Bias, Multiple-State, Multiple-Spell Duration Models and the Employment Dynamics of Disadvantaged Women

Author

Listed:
  • John C. Ham
  • Xianghong Li
  • Lara Shore-Sheppard
Abstract
Panel surveys generally suffer from "seam bias"--too few transitions observed within reference periods and too many reported between interviews. Seam bias is likely to affect duration models severely since both the start date and the end date of a spell may be misreported. In this paper we examine the employment dynamics of disadvantaged single mothers in the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) while correcting for seam bias in reported employment status. We develop parametric misreporting models for use in multi-state, multi-spell duration analysis; the models are identified if misreporting parameters are the same for fresh and left-censored spells of the same type. We extend these models to allow misreporting to depend on individual characteristics and for a certain fraction of the sample never to misreport. These extensions are informative about misreporting, but do not affect estimates of the hazard functions. We compare our results to two approaches used previously: i) using only data on the last month of reference periods and ii) adding a dummy variable for the last month of the reference periods. We find that there are important differences between our estimates and those obtained from ii), and very important differences between our estimates and those obtained from i). Finally, we also consider three alternative models of misreporting and are able to reject them based on aggregates of our micro data.

Suggested Citation

  • John C. Ham & Xianghong Li & Lara Shore-Sheppard, 2009. "Seam Bias, Multiple-State, Multiple-Spell Duration Models and the Employment Dynamics of Disadvantaged Women," NBER Working Papers 15151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15151
    Note: CH LS TWP
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Sarah Hamersma, 2011. "Why Don'T Eligible Firms Claim Hiring Subsidies? The Role Of Job Duration," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(3), pages 916-934, July.
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    5. Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
    6. Charles J. Romeo, 2001. "Controlling for Seam Problems in Duration Model Estimates: With Application to the Current Population Survey and the Computer Aided Telephone Interview/Computer Aided Personal Interview Overlap Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(3), pages 467-499.
    7. Black, Dan & Sanders, Seth & Taylor, Lowell, 2003. "Measurement of Higher Education in the Census and Current Population Survey," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 545-554, January.
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    10. Goudreau, Karen & Oberheu, Howard & Vaughan, Denton, 1984. "An Assessment of the Quality of Survey Reports of Income from the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(2), pages 179-186, April.
    11. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
    12. Rebecca M. Blank & Patricia Ruggles, 1996. "When Do Women Use Aid to Families with Dependent Children and Food Stamps? The Dynamics of Eligibility Versus Participation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 57-89.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jesse Rothstein & Robert G. Valletta, 2017. "Scraping by: Income and Program Participation After the Loss of Extended Unemployment Benefits," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 880-908, September.
    3. Baughman Reagan, 2018. "Employment in Long-Term Care: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-12, October.
    4. Zhuan Pei, 2017. "Eligibility Recertification and Dynamic Opt-In Incentives in Income-Tested Social Programs: Evidence from Medicaid/CHIP," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 241-276, February.
    5. Michelle S. Goeree & John C. Ham & Daniela Iorio, 2009. "Caught in the Bulimic Trap? Socioeconomic Status, State Dependence, and Unobserved Heterogeneity," Working Papers 386, Barcelona School of Economics.
    6. Carol Osler & Thang Nguyen & Tanseli Savaser, 2011. "Asymmetric Information and the Foreign-Exchange Trades of Global Custody Banks," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-09, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    7. Reagan A. Baughman & Kristin E. Smith, 2012. "Labor Mobility Of The Direct Care Workforce: Implications For The Provision Of Long‐Term Care," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(12), pages 1402-1415, December.
    8. Hervé, Justine, 2023. "Specialists or generalists? Cross-industry mobility and wages," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Arulampalam, Wiji & Corradi, Valentina & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2017. "Modeling heaped duration data: An application to neonatal mortality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 363-377.
    10. Flemming, Jean, 2020. "Skill accumulation in the market and at home," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    11. John C. Ham & Serkan Ozbeklik & Lara D. Shore-Sheppard, 2014. "Estimating Heterogeneous Takeup and Crowd-Out Responses to Existing Medicaid Income Limits and their Nonmarginal Expansions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(4), pages 872-905.
    12. Leslie Hodges, 2018. "Who is Covered by Unemployment Insurance?," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(3), pages 24-51, September.
    13. Terri Friedline & Robert Hughes & Paul Johnson, 2014. "Toward Healthy Balance Sheets: Are Savings Accounts a Gateway to Young Adults’ Asset Diversification and Accumulation?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(4), pages 359-389.
    14. David Neumark & Joanne Song & Patrick Button, 2015. "Does Protecting Older Workers from Discrimination Make It Harder to Get Hired? Revised with Additional Analysis of SIPP Data and Appendix of Disability Laws," Working Papers wp315, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    15. Purvi Sevak & Lucie Schmidt, 2007. "How do Immigrants Fare in Retirement?," Working Papers wp169, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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