[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0892.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Replacing the U.S. Income Tax with a Progressive Consumption Tax: A Sequenced General Equilibrium Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Don Fullerton
  • John B. Shoven
  • John Whalley
Abstract
This paper examines the welfare consequences of changing the current U.S. income tax system to a progressive consumption tax. We compute a sequence of single period equilibria in which savings decisions depend on the expected future return to capital. In the presence of existing income taxes, the U.S. economy is assumed to lie on a balanced growth path. With the change to a consumption tax, individuals save more and initially consume less. As the capital stock grows, consumption eventually overtakes that of the original path, and the economy approaches the new balanced growth path with higher consumption and a greater capital stock. Both the transition and the balanced growth paths enter our welfare evaluations. We find that the discounted present value of the stream of net gains is approximately $650 billion in 1973 dollars, just over one percent of the discounted present value of national income. Larger gains occur if further reform of capital income taxation accompanies the change. We examine the sensitivity of the results, both to the design of the consumption tax and to the values of elasticity and other parameters. The paper also contains estimates of the time required to adjust from one growth path to the other.

Suggested Citation

  • Don Fullerton & John B. Shoven & John Whalley, 1982. "Replacing the U.S. Income Tax with a Progressive Consumption Tax: A Sequenced General Equilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 0892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0892
    Note: PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0892.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles L. Ballard & Don Fullerton & John B. Shoven & John Whalley, 1985. "General Equilibrium Analysis of Tax Policies," NBER Chapters, in: A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation, pages 6-24, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lewis, H G, 1975. "Economics of Time and Labor Supply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(2), pages 29-34, May.
    3. Martin Feldstein, 1974. "Incidence of a Capital Income Tax in a Growing Economy with Variable Savings Rates," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(4), pages 505-513.
    4. Martin Feldstein, 1978. "The Welfare Cost of Capital Income Taxation," NBER Chapters, in: Research in Taxation, pages 29-51, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "Capital Taxation and Accumulation in a Life Cycle Growth Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 533-544, September.
    6. Robin Boadway, 1979. "Long-run Tax Incidence: A Comparative Dynamic Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 46(3), pages 505-511.
    7. Levhari, David & Sheshinski, Eytan, 1972. "Lifetime Excess Burden of a Tax," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(1), pages 139-147, Jan.-Feb..
    8. Martin S. Feldstein, 1974. "Tax Incidence in a Growing Economy with Variable Factor Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 88(4), pages 551-573.
    9. Robert E. Hall, 1987. "Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. E. Philip Howrey & Saul H. Hymans, 1978. "The Measurement and Determination of Loanable-Funds Saving," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 655-685.
    11. A. B. Atkinson, 1971. "The Timescale of Economic Model How Long is the Long Run?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 19, pages 248-263, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Atkinson, A. B. & Stiglitz, J. E., 1976. "The design of tax structure: Direct versus indirect taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 55-75.
    13. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1981. "A Note on Dynamic Tax Incidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 96(4), pages 705-723.
    14. Stern, N. H., 1976. "On the specification of models of optimum income taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 123-162.
    15. Ryuzo Sato, 1963. "Fiscal Policy in a Neo-Classical Growth Model: An Analysis of Time Required for Equilibrating Adjustment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 30(1), pages 16-23.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Katherine Baicker & Jonathan Skinner, 2011. "Health Care Spending Growth and the Future of U.S. Tax Rates," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25(1), pages 39-68.
    2. Wen-ya Chang & Hsueh-fang Tsai, 2006. "On Dynamic Tax Reform with Regime Switching," Public Finance Review, , vol. 34(3), pages 306-327, May.
    3. Don Fullerton, 1983. "Which Effective Tax Rate?," NBER Working Papers 1123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lin, Shuanglin, 2008. "China's value-added tax reform, capital accumulation, and welfare implications," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 197-214, June.
    5. Ahmed, S., 2004. "Modelling corporate tax liabilities using company accounts: a new framework," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0412, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Cristián Mardones Poblete, 2010. "Evaluando Reformas Tributarias en Chile con un Modelo CGE," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 37(2 Year 20), pages 243-284, December.
    7. Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "The dynamic efficiency cost of not taxing housing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 397-417, March.
    8. Antón, Arturo & Boyd, Roy & Elizondo, Alejandra & Ibarrarán, María Eugenia, 2016. "Universal social insurance for Mexico: Modeling of a financing scheme," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 838-850.
    9. Ballard, Charles L. & Kang, Kiwon, 2003. "International ramifications of US tax-policy changes," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 825-835, November.
    10. Zhao, Renjie & Zhang, Jiakai, 2022. "Rent-tax substitution and its impact on firms: Evidence from housing purchase limits policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    11. Johannes Bröcker & Martin Schneider, 2002. "How Does Economic Development in Eastern Europe Affect Austria's Regions? A Multiregional General Equilibrium Framework," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 257-285, May.
    12. Harvey Cutler & Martin Shields & Stephen Davies, 2018. "Can State Tax Policy Increase Economic Activity and Reduce Inequality?," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 142-164, March.
    13. Nelson Leitao Paes, 2017. "The economic effects of the elimination of taxation on investment: the case of ICMS in Brazil," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1055-1067.
    14. Fullerton, Don & Mackie, James B. III, 1989. "Economic Efficiency in Recent Tax Reform History: Policy Reversals or Consistent Improvements?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 42(1), pages 1-13, March.
    15. Fehr, Hans, 1999. "Welfare Effects of Dynamic Tax Reforms," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 5, number urn:isbn:9783161470165, September.
    16. Strehl, Wolfgang, 2019. "Revisiting the progressive consumption tax: A business cycle perspective," Discussion Papers 2019/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    17. Tessa Conroy & Harvey Cutler & Stephan Weiler, 2016. "The State-Level Impacts of Enforcing Sales Taxes for E-retail Purchases," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 276-295, June.
    18. James Alm & Asmaa El-Ganainy, 2013. "Value-added taxation and consumption," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(1), pages 105-128, February.
    19. Lin, Shuanglin, 1999. "Tax reform and external balance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 891-909, December.
    20. Harvey Galper & Eric Toder, 1984. "Transfer Elements in the Taxation of Income from Capital," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Transfers in the United States, pages 87-138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Timothy J. Kehoe, 1996. "Social accounting matrices and applied general equilibrium models," Working Papers 563, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    22. Gordon, Roger H., 1989. "Notes on cash - flow taxation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 210, The World Bank.
    23. Fehr, Hans & Wiegard, Wolfgang, 1996. "Numerische Gleichgewichtsmodelle: Grundstruktur, Anwendungen und Erkenntnisgehalt," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 75, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    24. Shuanglin Lin, 1998. "Taxing Consumption in an Open Economy," Public Finance Review, , vol. 26(3), pages 250-269, May.
    25. Alfredo M. Pereira, 1995. "Equal Yield Tax Alternatives and Government Deficits," Public Finance Review, , vol. 23(1), pages 40-71, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Islam, Muhammad Q., 1995. "Consumption path following a tax increase: Implications for the analysis of the welfare cost of taxation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 83-88, January.
    2. Don Fullerton & Gilbert Metcalf, 2002. "The Distribution of Tax Burdens," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0201, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    3. Gilbert E. Metcalf & Don Fullerton, 2002. "The Distribution of Tax Burdens: An Introduction," NBER Working Papers 8978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fullerton, Don & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2002. "Tax incidence," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 26, pages 1787-1872, Elsevier.
    5. Slemrod, Joel, 1990. "Optimal Taxation and Optimal Tax Systems," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 157-178, Winter.
    6. Chamley, Christophe, 1981. "The Welfare Cost of Capital Income Taxation in a Growing Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 468-496, June.
    7. M. Kevin McGee, 1988. "Invariant Resource Supply and Tax Incidence in a Lifecycle Growth Model," Public Finance Review, , vol. 16(4), pages 482-492, October.
    8. Kenneth L. Judd, 1983. "Exercises in Voodoo Economics," Discussion Papers 558, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    9. Judd, Kenneth L, 1987. "The Welfare Cost of Factor Taxation in a Perfect-Foresight Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 675-709, August.
    10. Don Fullerton, 1983. "Transition Losses of Partially Mobile Industry-Specific Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 107-125.
    11. Russo, Benjamin & Gandar, John M., 2003. "Interest-sensitive wealth and the life-cycle hypothesis: implications for fiscal policy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 418-432.
    12. Bernheim, B. Douglas, 2002. "Taxation and saving," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 18, pages 1173-1249, Elsevier.
    13. Auerbach, Alan J. & Hines, James Jr., 2002. "Taxation and economic efficiency," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 21, pages 1347-1421, Elsevier.
    14. Charles E. McLure Jr., 1981. "The Elusive Incidence of the Corporate Income Tax: The State Case," Public Finance Review, , vol. 9(4), pages 395-413, October.
    15. Zodrow, George R. & Diamond, John W., 2013. "Dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium Models and the Analysis of Tax Policy: The Diamond–Zodrow Model," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 743-813, Elsevier.
    16. Minea, Alexandru, 2008. "The Role of Public Spending in the Growth Theory Evolution," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 99-120, June.
    17. Michael Sattinger, 2010. "Income Tax Incidence with Positive Population Growth," Discussion Papers 10-04, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    18. William Perraudin & Thierry Pujol, 1991. "L'harmonisation fiscale en Europe et l'économie française : une approche en équilibre général," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 245-272.
    19. Leonel Muinelo‐Gallo & Oriol Roca‐Sagalés, 2011. "Economic Growth And Inequality: The Role Of Fiscal Policies," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2-3), pages 74-97, September.
    20. Michael L. Katz & Harvey S. Rosen, 1985. "Tax Analysis in an Oligopoly Model," Public Finance Review, , vol. 13(1), pages 3-20, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0892. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.